Is a Trump-Kim meeting so crazy it just might work?
Clare Richardson
March 10, 2018
Could casting aside years of unsuccessful foreign policy help the US break what has become a dangerous impasse? Donald Trump believes he has what it takes to bring Kim Jong Un and his nuclear arsenal into line.
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They've called each other "Little Rocket Man" and a "mentally deranged dotard." After trading public insults and military threats, could an antagonistic duo strike a denuclearization agreement that decades of diplomatic efforts failed to produce?
US President Donald Trump believes he has the reputation for deal-making and the instincts needed to bring North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his nuclear arsenal into line.
"It's certainly possible that the two men will understand each other on a deeper level because of their own sense of self-importance," said Isaac Stone Fish, a senior fellow at the Asia Society in Washington, DC. "The two men might end up really respecting each other. We've seen glimmers of that from Trump when he made comments about Kim Jong Un taking over family business at age of 27, which is same age Trump took over his [family's business]."
Foolhardy gamble?
Yet many stunned foreign policy observers see Thursday's extraordinary announcement as a foolhardy gamble that will grant a dangerous regime the international legitimacy it craves.
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
Image: Reuters/A. Wallace
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South Korea's national security adviser Chung Eui-yong told White House press that North Korea's Kim would like to sit down with Trump, and that the country would be willing to temporarily suspend its nuclear and missile testing while the meeting took place. Even more shockingly, the US president immediately accepted the invitation without preconditions. A day later, the White House tried to suggest the meeting was not in fact a done deal.
If the encounter does take place it would be the first time an American president meets with a North Korean leader while in office. It's not a coincidence that this arrangement is unprecedented; North Korea has been trying to arrange a meeting with a sitting US president for decades, and there are many reasons why they've been rebuffed.
The meeting that US and South Korean officials said would take place before the end of May carries sizable risk. North Korea wants to be taken seriously on the world stage, and its nuclear weapons afford it plenty of attention. By meeting face-to-face with Kim Jong Un, Trump would be extending international legitimacy to a country that's carried out sweeping human rights abuses. A meeting could also be a ploy to give Kim time to further develop his nuclear weapons program.
Any deal would require crafting detailed and nuanced measures to rein in North Korea, but the Trump administration has slim pickings when it comes to expert advice on complex negotiations. The State Department's top diplomat for North Korea, Joseph Yun, announced his surprise retirement in February, sparking concerns over Trump's policies. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, who met with the South Korean envoys to discuss Trump's possible meeting with Kim, is widely rumored to be on his way out. Trump's administration still hasn't even filled the role of ambassador to South Korea.
Victor Cha, a one-time candidate for that post and former National Security Council Director for Asian Affairs, questioned what, exactly, could go up for negotiation, tweeting, "The question becomes what (are) we putting on table: sanctions? Normalization? Peace treaty?"
This time North Korea would come to the table with much greater nuclear and missile capabilities — and therefore more bargaining power. If talks fall apart, it could further escalate tensions. North Korea could also test another missile ahead of a potential meeting. "We don't actually know how much control Kim Jong Un has over top generals in his administration,” says Fish. "It's possible one of them wants to torpedo the summit."
He thinks a Trump-Kim meeting is the least bad option available because it could prevent war and buy time in which North Korea could collapse or evolve.
Guns, gold and gas: What UN sanctions target North Korea?
International observers say North Korea continues to flout bans on its pursuit of a nuclear weapons program. The UN Security Council has increased sanctions on the country.
Image: Reuters/S. Sagolj
Coal and iron
In August 2017, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution banning all coal, iron, iron ore and lead imports from North Korea. Pictured here is China's Liaoning Greenland Energy Coal Co. in Dandong, on the border with North Korea.
Image: Reuters/B. Goh
Currency
North Korea is prohibited from opening banks abroad, and UN member states are prohibited from operating financial institutions on Pyongyang's behalf. Any dealings that might help North Korea skirt the sanctions are banned, and UN member states must expel and repatriate anyone working on the regime's financial behalf.
Image: Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images
Shipping
This North Korean cargo ship found itself boarded for inspection in the Philippines in March 2016 after the United Nations ordered member nations to de-register any vessel owned, operated or crewed on orders from Pyongyang. North Korean ships also cannot fly the flags of other nations to evade sanctions.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/J. Dumaguing
Air travel
Air Koryo, North Korea's national carrier, remains exempt from aviation sanctions and still has scheduled flights to China and Russia, as well as several domestic routes. However, the airline cannot fly to the European Union, which has banned it on safety grounds, and the United States prevents citizens from legally conducting business with the carrier.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Yonhap
Fuel
In December 2017, a new raft of UN sanctions targeted fuel imports in North Korea, meaning its residents could have difficulties driving the country in Pyeonghwa sedans (pictured above). The sale and transfer of diesel and kerosene are limited while the import of crude oil is capped at 4 million barrels a year.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Ralston
Bank accounts, real estate
UN sanctions limit North Korea's diplomats abroad — at the country's Berlin embassy, for example — to only one bank account each. North Korea is also not permitted to own real estate abroad for any purposes other than consular.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/S.Schaubitzer
Military training
It's a safe bet that North Korea's marching military did not learn its moves abroad: UN sanctions ban foreign security forces from training the country's army, police or paramilitary units. The United Nations does permit medical exchanges, but otherwise allow very little assistance of scientific or technical value.
Image: Reuters/S. Sagolj
Statues
Anyone wanting to own a larger-than-life Kim will have to await the end of North Korea's nuclear program. The UN sanctions currently ban the sale of statues by the nation.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/robertharding
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Breaking precedent
North Korea's nuclear program has long been one of the stickiest foreign policy challenges for the US. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was the highest-level American official to visit North Korea while in office. She traveled to Pyongyang in 2000 to set up a trip for Bill Clinton after he was invited by Kim Jong Il, but the president never made the journey. After Clinton left office he did, however, meet with Kim Jong Il to help negotiate the release of two American journalists from North Korea. George W. Bush included North Korea in his "axis of evil" and the Obama administration ramped up sanctions.
Tensions flared over the past year thanks to Pyongyang's firing of intercontinental ballistic missiles and testing what is thought to be a hydrogen bomb, but relations between the two Koreas appeared to thaw somewhat after North Korea's participation in the Winter Olympics hosted in PyeongChang in February.
Could casting aside the unsuccessful orthodoxy of US foreign policy and giving North Korea a taste of its own medicine with an unpredictable and volatile leader help the US break what has become a dangerous impasse?
"Although Trump has many weaknesses, [the meeting] does play to some of his strengths," Fish says.
The stakes might be high, but expectations for a Trump-Kim meeting are relatively muted. Following a year of escalating tensions over the threat of a catastrophic nuclear war, even a lousy deal with North Korea could be hailed as a success.