The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have appealed for over $200 million (€175 million) in funds to help protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries from the looming return the destructive El Nino weather pattern.

The support would include cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood-control measures, as extreme weather patterns affect much of the world already.

"El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world," the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.

In Africa, the countries listed as most at risk include Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

What El Nino means across Africa

El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which usually happens every two to seven years.

It can last nine to 12 months. In some regions, El Nino can bring hotter and drier conditions; in others, it can increase rainfall and flooding.

"For Africa, it's not one climate story. It's actually going to be a much more varied impact," Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, a research officer in the Climate Risk and Human Security Project at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa, told DW.

Southern Africa has in the past experienced "hotter and much drier conditions" during El Nino events, Mkumbeni said, which raises the risk of "drought, water shortages and general food insecurity."

The situation in Eastern Africa, however, is more complex, as El Nino can have different effects depending on the season.

Global warming: Bad to worse

Bhargabi Bharadwaj, a research associate at Chatham House's Environment and Society Centre, told DW that "El Nino reshapes rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, though its impacts can vary depending on the region and which season it hits."

"Some areas will face drier conditions, which increases risk of drought and wildfire occurrence, whereas other parts of the world will have wetter conditions and face likelihood of storms and flooding," Bharadwaj said.

Scientists such as Bharadwaj say climate change does not directly cause El Nino, but it can make its effects more severe.

"We're working with warmer baseline temperatures of around 1.4 degrees (Celsius, or 2.5 F) higher than preindustrial levels. This means that, when an El Nino event does occur, then there are more extreme outcomes," Bharadwaj said.

Some experts are also concerned about the possibility of a very strong — or "super" — El Nino this year, "when your average temperature difference is around 2 degrees higher, or at least forecast to be 2 degrees higher," she said.

Acting before disaster strikes

The real challenge is whether governments and aid agencies can act quickly enough, as "science is ahead of policy," Bharadwaj said.

In northern Kenya, Abdikadir Aden Hassan, founder of Garissa Million Trees, told DW that the danger is not only the possibility of heavy rains and subsequent floods, but the fact that they may come after months of drought.

"We are in a dry spell and are headed toward drought in August and September," Hassan said. "Then, in October, November and December, we are expected to have the short rains. People may be coming out of drought and then going straight into flash floods. That means their livelihoods will be affected for a second time."

With lives and livelihoods at stake, experts say Africa's climate preparedness cannot be left to individual governments or ministries.

"It has to be embedded within agriculture, within health, within water, within energy, education and social protection," Mkumbeni said.

Climate-linked displacement

Conflicts, high energy costs, debt pressures, fertilizer disruptions and cuts in international aid are already weakening the ability of many countries to respond to external shocks. Bharadwaj said this made the forecast for 2026 particularly worrying.

"The concern isn't just El Nino," Bharadwaj said. "It's that it's occurring at a time when the global system is already quite fragile. A lot of the vulnerable populations are living in regions that are highly impacted by import costs but also high debt."

Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, said climate-related events were already forcing people to leave their homes.

"Cyclones and flooding have been by far and away the biggest pushers of mass displacement in Africa," Mbiyozo said. "Drought has, as well, but drought tends to do it a little bit more slowly."

"People don't want to leave home," Mbiyozo said. "Most people want to stay where they are."

Cities on the front line of climate crises

Drought and desertification are driving people increasingly toward Africa's towns and cities, which are increasingly having to absorb climate-linked migration — even as many struggle with wide-ranging issues such as a lack of housing and public services and widespread informal employment.

"The bulk of the movement that's happening, whether it's sudden or slow or general population growth, is into the cities," Mbiyozo said.

According to the World Bank, climate change alone could drive up to 86 million additional internally displaced people into African cities by 2050.

Concern for Lake Chad and southern Africa

In the fragile Lake Chad Basin, research on displacement patterns from 2008 through 2024 found that disasters displace more people than conflict and violence, Mbiyozo said. "What we're also finding is that the violence is intersecting with the disasters," she said.

Mbiyozo said the region was ripe a "perfect storm" in which borderland fragility, violent extremism, pastoralism and climate shocks all collide.

Southern Africa meanwhile is another major area of concern. The region has faced repeated cycles of drought and cyclones, with countries such as Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Madagascar repeatedly affected in recent years.

"Madagascar at this point is hit by cyclones almost every year," Mbiyozo said, and Mozambique has repeatedly faced "never-before-seen-strength cyclones" in recent years.

Are early warning mechanisms enough?

Some countries have made progress in being better prepared: Mozambique has invested in early warning systems and climate literacy in coastal communities. South Africa has passed a Climate Change Act, which experts see as a positive legislative step.

Kenya has improved coordination between government agencies and humanitarian organizations, including emergency operation centers and efforts to move people in flood-prone areas to higher ground, Hassan said.

"As a country, we are better off and much more organized right now," he said. "But the challenge is that, if we do not get external support, the national emergency funds available may not be enough."

Hassan said early warnings systems must be matched by funds that are available before disasters escalate: "Money may be allocated," he said, "but delays in releasing it can make the disaster worse."

Cai Nebe Contributed to this article.
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson