"First, I want to say that our security authorities are keeping a close eye on the situation," emphasized Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt a few days after the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The politician from the conservative CDU party spoke of an "abstract threat," meaning that there is currently no specific evidence of planned attacks.

However, shortly after the first bombings of Iran by the US and Israel, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany's domestic intelligence agency, warned of possible retaliatory attacks in Germany. "We should be prepared for Jewish institutions, such as schools and synagogues, to be targeted in any retaliatory operations," a statement read.

According to the intelligence service, diplomatic representatives or military sites could also be targeted. Members of the Iranian opposition living in Germany are also considered to be at risk. Based on information gathered by the intelligence agency, such individuals have been subject to surveillance, threats and even kidnappings by Iranian intelligence services for decades.

Felix Klein, the German government's antisemitism commissioner, is especially concerned about Jewish people: "Especially after the killing of Iranian revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, we can expect Iran to use its networks in Germany to carry out terrorist attacks against Jewish and Israeli institutions," he told newspapers belonging to the Funke Media Group.

Secret service overseer urges caution

Marc Henrichmann, the chairman of the Parliamentary Oversight Committee for the Secret Services (PKGr) and a member of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), also believes retaliatory measures are possible. The Iranian regime has repeatedly shown that it is willing to carry out terrorist acts outside its own borders, Henrichmann told the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. However, he added that there is no reason to panic given the existing security measures.

Lawmaker Omid Nouripour, who was born in Tehran and is a former leader of the ecological Green Party, continues to believe that the Iranian secret services are capable of carrying out attacks in Europe, including Germany. "The Iranians have always threatened to do so openly in the past," the member of the Bundestag told Phoenix TV. He fears that something like this could happen now.

Intimidation, threats, cyberattacks

At the beginning of the year, German security authorities already had their sights set on possible activities by Iranian intelligence services. This was in response to the mass protests in Iran, which left several thousand people dead. In Germany, too, many people showed solidarity with their compatriots in their distant homeland.

At the time, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution told DW: "Transnational repression by Iranian intelligence services against dissident organizations and individuals from the diaspora ranges from targeted espionage, smear campaigns, intimidation and threats, all the way to violence."

Cyberattacks also appear to be playing an increasingly important role. A report published in early February mentioned espionage attempts by Iranian intelligence services in Germany. In it, a group was described as having compromised the electronic communication systems of Iranian exiles. Among the victims were human rights activists, journalists and lawyers.

How vulnerable are Iranian exiles in Germany?

Widespread outrage was sparked by the fate of German-Iranian Jamshid Sharmahd, who was abducted in 2020 while traveling to a neighboring country and, according to initial reports, executed four years later. Subsequent reports, however, indicated that he had died shortly before his scheduled execution.

Due to the escalating war, the situation could now also become more dangerous for people with no connection to Iran.

One scenario that the German domestic intelligence agency outlined to DW involves "attacking the private email and social media accounts of members of the diaspora. This allows Iranian intelligence services to use the data they have obtained to create profiles of those individuals, gather information about their daily lives and gain insight into their private and professional networks."

At present, it appears that the risk of being targeted by Iranian intelligence services in Germany is more likely to increase than decrease.

This article was originally written in German.

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