Is President Trump succeeding on N. Korea and failing on Iran? Analyst Paulo Casaca says while Trump's policies for the two countries are quite similar, Middle Eastern and Northeast Asian geopolitics are very different.
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DW: Some US officials claim that President Donald Trump's aggressive North Korea policy has forced the communist country to engage in talks. But Trump's policy for Iran – another state allegedly aspiring to be a nuclear power – has not yielded results. What makes it difficult for the Trump administration to deal with Iran?
Paulo Casaca: In 2016, I presented a policy brief "The PINK triangle threat; Nuclear terror proliferation: an assessment," in Washington DC. In the paper I identified Pakistan, Iran and North Korea (PINK) as three vertices of the same [nuclear] triangle that need to be dealt with in a concerted way. My recommendations broadly go in line with what the Trump administration has been doing.
President Trump has increased pressure on these countries and imposed more sanctions related to their nuclear proliferation activities. Most recently, his administration targeted Pakistan. On this issue, Trump is showing resolve that no US president has demonstrated in decades.
I think the situations vary for each country and results cannot be achieved at the same time. It is definitely too early to speak of any success regarding North Korea, as we have seen many times in the past that success claims can be elusive. But the fact that sanctions on North Korea were imposed in a much more consistent way has forced the Northeast Asian country's authorities to seek a compromise.
The Iran situation is also evolving favorably. We must keep in mind that international sanctions against Iran are not comparable with the ones on North Korea, therefore the result has not been the same.
On the other hand, public dissatisfaction with the regime in Iran is much stronger than in North Korea, so the internal pressure is higher in Iran.
As it was true in the case of the former Soviet Union, it is easier to analyze the objective weaknesses of Iran's regime than to guess the exact timing and circumstances of its possible collapse.
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
Image: Reuters/A. Wallace
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In 2015, Iran signed a nuclear deal with global powers, including the US. Trump's opposition to the landmark agreement is not a secret. So contrary to his North Korea strategy, it appears that in Iran's case the US president is trying to move away from the negotiating table. Do you agree?
I think that if and when Iranian authorities agree to negotiations without conditions, President Trump would react the same way he did with North Korea. I do not see any difference in the US president's approaches for the two countries other than his perception that the collapse of the North Korean regime due to an internal pressure is not as likely as in the case of Iran.
The reality is that France is getting closer to the US position [on the Iran nuclear deal] and forcing other Western countries, including Germany, to change their stance and understand that either there is a change of policy that really contains Iran's threats or the nuclear deal will collapse.
The idea that the Iran deal could survive without the US is not realistic.
So you're saying that the US adopts different nuclear approaches for different countries and different regions in accordance with its interests?
We must not equate nuclear powers like France and the UK with countries like North Korea and Iran that want to possess atomic bombs. At the same time we must keep in mind the global objective of eliminating nuclear weapons everywhere in the world.
The US has signed huge weapons deals with Iran's rival states in the Middle East as well as North Korea's opponents in Northeast Asia. Do you think the military-industrial complex has an interest in fanning hostilities in the two regions?
The Western policy – in particular the US policy – regarding the Middle East lacks coherence, vision and credibility. The enormous sales of aircraft fighters to Qatar by the US, the UK, and France are an example of this.
Qatar has been a major promoter of jihadism in the Middle East and is protected by Iran. It has clearly aligned against US interests [in the Middle East], but Western powers seem to be more interested in arms sales than working to change Qatar's policies.
Elsewhere, it also appears that the West is incapable of resisting the pressure of the military-industrial complex. The recent US arms sales for Saudi Arabia will hardly be the most efficient way to help the kingdom resist Iranian-backed fighters in the region.
Paulo Casaca is founder and executive director of the Brussels-based South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF). He was a Portuguese member of the European Parliament from 1999 to 2009. Casaca is an expert on Iranian politics and the author of several books and reports on economics and international politics.