Nikolai, the youngest son of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, has been appearing ever more frequently in the media of late. The 20-year-old, who used to accompany his father on state visits, now appears to be influencing national politics.

Nikolai Lukashenko is currently touring the country to play piano concerts for a "unity marathon"— propaganda events to gain support for the nomination of his father to another term in office. The elder Lukashenko has ruled the country for 30 years, and an early presidential election is scheduled to be held in Belarus on January 26.

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared earlier this year that Lukashenko had apologized for the start of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine in spring 2022, Lukashenko's press secretary Natalia Eismont explained that this was solely due to "an emotional reaction" on the part of his son, Nikolai. According to Eismont, Zelenskyy's number is even stored among Nikolai Lukashenko's personal contacts. His father has made Belarus available to Russian troops to stage the invasion of the neighboring country.

Tagging along since childhood

Nikolai Lukashenko first appeared in public in 2008 at the age of almost 4, joining his father for a "nationwide cleaning day" at a Minsk Arena construction site. Later, Lukashenko announced that Nikolai was his third son. The boy's mother was rumored to be a doctor. Her name is now an open secret: Irina Abelskaya, head of a health center where the country's leaders receive medical treatment.

From an early age, the Belarusian autocrat took his youngest son with him everywhere, from trips around the country to official visits abroad. As a child, Nikolai met US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pope Francis and other world leaders.

In June 2022, he finished school and began studying at Belarusian State University in a "biotechnology" department created especially for him in cooperation with Peking University. This was done so Nikolai could receive diplomas from both institutions, according to his father.

Nikolai an 'absolute copy' of his father

During the mass protests against the falsification of the presidential election by Alexander Lukashenko in 2020, then 16-year-old Nikolai appeared with his father in full uniform holding a machine gun. He was later present during the interrogation of opposition politician Viktar Babaryka and other political prisoners in the detention center of the Belarusian secret service.

Belarus has long been subject to sanctions by Western countries for political and human rights violations. In August 2024, on the fourth anniversary of the controversial 2020 election, Canada placed several people on a sanctions list, including Nikolai Lukashenko. The government in Ottawa cited serious systematic human rights violations following that election.

In November 2024, Nikolai gave an interview to the Belarusian state media in which he explained that he was like his father. 

"Some say I am different from my father, but they either don't know me or don't know my father. I cannot be an opponent of the state, of the head of state, because I am an absolute copy of him," he said.

As early as 2007, Alexander Lukashenko, who is the subject of a national personality cult, indicated he would groom his youngest son as his successor because he was "unique." Recently, the Belarusian autocrat has spoken of the need for generational change.

"We must prepare our children who will take over, protect and cherish Belarus," he said on January 7 during a visit to a church in Logoisk, near the capital, Minsk.

"Lukashenko dreams of Nikolai becoming his successor and he makes no secret of this," said Fyodor Pavlyuchenko, editor-in-chief of the news portal Reform.news and head of a YouTube project taking a critical look at the president. "Nikolai has now grown up and his media activities point to a repositioning," he added.

Nikolai is being presented as a copy of the president and a potential successor, said Pavlyuchenko, adding that propaganda will now serve to drive this message home with Belarusians.

More than just campaign support?

Political scientist Valery Karbalevich, on the other hand, believes Nikolai Lukashenko's increased media presence is merely electioneering for his father, and that there are no political plans for the young man.

"The question of a successor is only ever on the agenda when a head of state steps down. But Lukashenko has no plans to step down," he said.

Belarus would be similar to other post-Soviet states where sons have succeeded their fathers as head of state only after holding an important position to justify laying claim to power, Karbalevich said. Before taking on the role of president in Azerbaijan, for example, Ilham Aliyev led a major oil company. In Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdymukhamedov also held important positions before becoming president.

But in Belarus, Lukashenko's eldest son Viktor only heads the National Olympic Committee, which is a social organization, while Nikolai Lukashenko has no official role at all, Karbalevich pointed out. This leaves little indication that one of Lukashenko's sons will take over, he said.

'He will be turned into a prince'

Journalist Pavlyuchenko, on the other hand, believes holding such a role won't be necessary for Nikolai Lukashenko to ascend, pointing out that his father has built up "a whole clan" around his youngest son.

"He will be turned into a prince, a deity who has been given everything by nature that many only acquire through a political career," said Pavlyuchenko. Nikolai Lukashenko's greatest shortcoming in this scenario is his youth, he added, calling it a race against time amid uncertainty over how long the president will last before handing over power. In recent years, there have been rumors of ill health surrounding the 70-year-old dictator.

Pavlyuchenko also didn't rule out the possibility that Nikolai could face competition from his older brothers Viktor and Dmitry in a succession drama. But he believes they lack the necessary charisma.

"When they appear in front of the cameras, you can see that they are the inferior copies of their father," he said.

This article was originally written in German.