The Arctic island group of Svalbard is not meant to host military activity, yet temperatures around it are rising — and not only because of climate change. Since Russia's full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO and Russia have been facing off more frequently in the waters around the Norwegian archipelago.

Svalbard, which includes Spitsbergen, is unusual. It is home to polar bears, major scientific infrastructure such as the SvalSat satellite station, and is governed by a historic treaty that grants access to more than 40 countries. The Svalbard Treaty is designed to keep the area peaceful, but melting Arctic sea ice is opening new economic opportunities and shipping routes — and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

These changes come as the war in Iran persists and the outcome of Russia's war in Ukraine remains uncertain. Russia has spent decades expanding its Arctic capabilities, from military bases and nuclear submarines to a large fleet of icebreakers patrolling the waters around Svalbard. Now NATO is moving to close the gap.

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