Just how closely Beijing observes the Dalai Lama's activities in exile in India was once again made very clear two years ago when Tibet’s spiritual leader visited Tawang in the state of Arunachal Pradesh, which is situated on the border between India and China. China, which lays claim to about 90,000 square kilometers in the state, protested loudly. India, which for its part, accuses China of occupying 40,000 square kilometers in Kashmir, said it had approved the Dalai Lama's trip because it did not have a political background. The Dalai Lama was in Tawang to hold a series of lectures.

Tseten Chhoekyapa, the head of the Tibet Bureau for Central and Eastern Europe in Geneva, understands that the Indian government is subject to certain constraints. "People are always for justice wherever they live, especially if they live in a democracy, but a government has to nurture good relations with its neighbors," he says. However, he also points out that New Delhi could save considerably on military costs if a peaceful solution was found to the Tibet problem and if it invested more in education or economic development.

Divided opinion in India

In India, a debate is currently raging on what the government should do with relation to the Dalai Lama. Some argue that India, as the world’s biggest democracy, was right to put its weight behind him since he is a blessing for India. Others are of the opinion that India’s problems with its arch-rival China go back to the fact that the Dalai Lama was offered refuge in Dharamsala, thus allowing the cultural and religious identity of the Tibetans to be perpetuated. They see Tibet as an internal Chinese matter in which India should not get involved.

The former foreign minister of India and renowned China expert Kunwar Natwar Singh is one of the skeptics. In "My China Diary," published in 2009, he argues that ties between India and Tibet were not particularly good before the Chinese army went in, particularly because of Tibet's interest in certain Indian regions.

Whereas, he says, Sino-Indian relations worsened considerably after the Dalai Lama and his supporters fled Tibet. The low point was the Sino-Indian War in 1962. Only since the late 1980s, has the situation become less tense.

However, Tibet expert Vijay Kranti has a different point of view. Ever since China has occupied Tibet, it argues that Tibet is a part of China, he says. China’s argument is the same when it comes to Arunachal Pradesh in India, which China has started referring to as “South China.” He criticizes India’s defensive attitude, saying that India does not want to talk about it because China may then pick up the debate regarding Kashmir.

Pakistan and China's tightening ties

Moreover, there is Pakistan to keep in mind. Some fear that Islamabad and Beijing might ally themselves more against India, if New Delhi is too overt in its support for the Dalai Lama.

Like India, Pakistan gained independence from Britain in 1947. Over a million died during the partition riots and since then the two nuclear powers have fought three wars. It is in India’s interest that Pakistan be weak, and not strengthened by China.

However, as Kranti points out Beijing is already creating facts on the ground: "The former Tibetan-Pakistani border is now a Chinese-Pakistani border, giving China good access to the Arabian Sea." Beijing has already financed a huge port in Gwadar where Chinese ships are docked. "Until now, India had a stronger presence than Pakistan, but India’s naval superiority on its west coast has suffered a major setback because of China’s presence," says Kranti.

The Dalai Lama recently said he felt like the "son of India" after 50 years in exile there but whether this is a blessing or a curse for the South Asian state is hard to judge.

Author: Priya Esselborn / Vivek Kumar / act
Editor: Manasi Gopalakrishnan