As heavy downpours alternate with hot, cloudless days, early autumn seems to be locked in a battle with late summer in the Moldovan capital, Chisinau.

With Moldova's general election campaign now in its final phase, the political situation in the country is as unpredictable as the weather.

Opinion polls suggest a tight race between President Maia Sandu's pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) and a number of pro-Russian parties.

Ahead of the election on Sunday, the center of Chisinau is full of eager campaigners fighting for every vote. They approach passersby, talk to them and hand out fliers and election newspapers outlining the parties' policies and election pledges.

One of these campaigners is 35-year-old Cristian. As people hurry past him on the crowded Stefan-cel-Mare-Boulevard, he hands out the yellow campaign newspaper of the ruling PAS.

"I hope our country will decide to become part of the EU, as a democratic country that respects human rights," he told DW. "People must take responsibility for their vote because their vote decides our future and the future of generations to come."

For the PAS campaigner, there is absolutely no doubt: His country must join the European Union. "With the EU, the wages in our country will rise. It will allow us to be more independent and to implement various projects, like digitalization," he said.

'European dream' or 'big lie'?

Just a short distance away on the same boulevard, 50-year-old Vitalie is approaching passersby in an attempt to win their backing for Our Party, the party of the controversial businessman Renato Usatii.

The pages of the campaign newspapers in his hand flap in the wind.

"Our country has become much poorer over the past four years," he said. Vitalie considers the pro-EU path of PAS to be a mistake. "This so-called European dream is a big lie. The EU will not be willing to take on Moldova — not in two years and not in three, four or 10 years," he told DW.

"We should look very carefully and pay no heed to the European lies, the European promises."

Campaigning on television and TikTok

Cristian, Vitalie and the other campaigners speak to hundreds of people every day, trying to win them over.

As campaign commercials run back-to-back on television, politicians are also trying to reach young voters on TikTok.

With the election just days away, the politicians are not afraid to resort to grand words either. President Sandu recently declared the poll to be nothing less than "the most important election in the history of the country."

The EU or Russia? West or East? To many Moldovans, it seems as if this is the only issue in the campaign.

Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, this small state, which is situated between Ukraine and Romania, applied to join the European Union. Just a few months later, in June 2022, it was granted candidate status by the EU.

The goal of the current government is to join the bloc by 2030. This has not gone down well in Moscow, which for many years had both economic and political influence on the country.

Political debate is everywhere in Chisinau — even on the walls of buildings. "Russians out of Moldova" is daubed on a wall in the city center. Above it, someone has written "Sandu – Sheep" in red paint.

Neither East nor West?

While many voters have a clear opinion on matters, 26-year-old project manager Alina feels that nothing is black and white.

"No matter what the outcome of the election is, we're in a real pickle," she told DW.

This year, the EU decided to give €1.9 billion ($2.24 billion) to Moldova by 2027 in the form of loans and grants — support that is very valuable to the state. She is afraid that the EU will turn away from Moldova if pro-Russian parties gain the upper hand in parliament, and fears that this financial support could dry up as a result.

But Alina is also worried about what will happen if a pro-Russian party wins. She is particularly concerned about Russia's response.

"Chisinau is small, and Moldova is not particularly big either. You don't need a huge army to take our country," she said.

War in Ukraine takes its toll

The Ukrainian border is only 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the capital. Over 1.3 million people have fled Ukraine to Moldova since Russia launched its all-out war in February 2022. About 100,000 of them have stayed, placing a heavy economic burden on this small country.

But the war on the other side of the border is also a psychological strain. Russian drones regularly come down on Moldovan territory.

"The war in Ukraine feels very close," said 22-year-old Michelle, who works as a sales manager. "We feel the pressure — not as much now as in the past, but perhaps we have just grown accustomed to it."

The fear of a war with Russia underpins many things here. After all, there are already about 1,500 Russian soldiers in Moldova. They are stationed in Transnistria, a separatist region within the borders of Moldova that broke away from the country in 1990 and has its own army, currency and government.

Economically and militarily, Transnistria is dependent on Russia and has in the past asked to be integrated into the Russian Federation.

A call for 'neutrality'

Moldova's ruling PAS has repeatedly declared its solidarity with Ukraine, unlike the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), which opinion polls put in second place.

"Neutrality is our shield. The Republic of Moldova must be a bridge between East and West, not a battlefield," says the BEP in its campaign newspaper, stoking fear of a possible Russian invasion if Moldova continues along its EU path.

This same fear is also being spread online.

Anastasia Nani works for the Center for Independent Journalism, which has noted massive Russian influence on social media in recent years.

Nani said one of the most frequent narratives is that "NATO and Ukraine want to drag us into war; our men will end up fighting on the front."

"Already the legitimacy of the election is being called into question," she said, adding that in this way, Russia wants to undermine the trust of Moldovans in the election and the rule of law.

Increased cost of living

But it's not just the war in Ukraine that's a big issue in this election. Just like in the rest of Europe, inflation is one of the most pressing problems in Moldova.

"Yesterday I paid 70 lei (€3.50 or $4.10) for a few tomatoes and some bread. That makes absolutely no sense," said Alina.

When Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, inflation in Moldova exploded to almost 29%. While it has dropped again, it stood at 7.3% in August, which is still well above the EU average.

Although the high prices affect everyone, it is those who didn't have much before the war in Ukraine, such as pensioners, who have been hit the hardest.

Almost one-third of Moldovans — especially in rural areas — live below the poverty line. Elderly women stand begging outside supermarkets in Chisinau. On the marketplaces, very elderly men and women can be seen selling fruit and vegetables.

The cost of renting and buying apartments has gone up this year. People often pay €500 rent a month for a one-room apartment in Chisinau, which is a lot considering that the average monthly income in Moldova is €800.

"I'm 26 and I'd like to buy an apartment in the future," said Alina. "But how? They are so extremely overpriced at the moment. It's absolutely crazy."

It is no surprise, therefore, that Alina and most Moldovans wish for one thing above all else: an end to the spiraling prices.

Voters in Moldova will decide on Sunday whom they trust to make this happen.

This article was originally written in German.