As the US scrambles to reorganize a summit with North Korea, positive outcomes are far from certain. Rather than a calculated strategy, the Trump administration's disorganized diplomacy is leaving the world in suspense.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/A. Arnold
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For a period of time in early May, the diplomatic breakthroughs on the Korean Peninsula provided the impression that US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" policy was working, and a clear path to negotiation between the US and North Korea seemed possible after a year of "fire and fury" rhetoric and missile tests.
The leaders of North and South Korea held a historic meeting in April and pledged and to officially end the formal state of war between the two countries. After US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on May 8, a date was set for an unprecedented summit between Kim and the US president for June 12 in Singapore.
The White House even minted commemorative coins, emblazoned with the word "peace talks" and visages of the two leaders. Trump boasted that "everybody thinks" he should receive a Nobel Peace Prize.
One of Trump's consistent strategies is to keep his opponents off guard by obfuscating his intentions. However, the sensitive and complicated structure of forging diplomacy between the US and North Korea is impaired by mixed signals coming from Trump administration officials and signs of dysfunctional policymaking from the White House.
After the summit was cancelled, the White House gift shop announced the coins would be sold at a discountImage: picture-alliance/newscom/UPI Photo/K. Dietsch
"As the president made clear, this will only end like the Libyan model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal," Pence told Fox News.
Pence's statements reflect hardliner National Security Advisor John Bolton's remarks in April about the so-called "Libyan model" of denuclearization, which calls for the complete removal of all nuclear weapons material. Pyongyang is very aware of the fact that Gaddafi gave up Libya's pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003, and was nevertheless overthrown by US-backed forces.
The remarks from the US vice president came across as antagonistic to the North Koreans at a point where both sides were trying to create a sustainable framework for negotiation. In response, North Korean Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Choe Son-hui issued a statement published by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency expressing his "surprise" at "such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing from the mouth of the US vice president."
In the statement, before calling Pence a "political dummy," Choe said that as vice president, Pence should "sense the trends in dialogue and the climate of détente."
"We can also make the US taste an appalling tragedy it has neither experienced nor even imagined up to now," the statement continued.
Trump's letter in response cancelling the summit cited the "open hostility and anger" from North Korea, while boasting about the US' nuclear capability being "massive and powerful." Trump's letter also lamented the "lost opportunity" for the world, but dangled the possibility that talks could continue.
Indeed, after a conciliatory response on May 25 from North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan, expressing Pyongyang's willingness to talk at "any time and in any format," Trump took an about-face and signaled on Twitter that the summit could very well continue as planned, without making anything official.
"Trump's flip-flopping reflects both his diplomatic inexperience and his mercurial nature," Mark Fitzpatrick, an executive director at the Washington-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told DW.
"He tries to portray it as negotiation gamesmanship, which in some ways is true," added Fitzpatrick. "His announcement that the summit was off pressured the North Koreans into quickly moving to try to put it back on. But when Trump then contradicted his own staff and said the meeting could still be held on June 12, he displayed his keenness to make it happen."
"By being so enthusiastic about the summit and basking in the false hopes that it will bring him a Nobel Peace prize, Trump cedes leverage to North Korea," said Fitzpatrick.
North Korea shuts down nuclear site
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Giving the advantage to Pyongyang?
Sensing an opportunity to save face, on May 26 Kim quickly organized a meeting on the northern side of the truce village of Panmunjom with South Korean President Moon Jae In, who had been blindsided by Trump's abrupt pullout.
In a show of bonhomie, the two were pictured embracing and Moon returned from the meeting with a message for Washington that Kim was "willing to denuclearize," if the US would respect North Korea's sovereignty.
"Kim has already taken advantage of the situation," Dr. Jung Pak, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies in Washington, told DW. "He met with President Moon in a quickly organized second summit meeting, creating the perception that North and South Korea were working toward peace, while the US gets the blame for obstructing dialogue."
"Moon has been clear that he wants to play the role of mediator between the US and North Korea, in effect 'coaching' Trump and Kim on how to handle each other," said Pak.
"There is concern that improvement of inter-Korean relations without Kim's commitment and actions on denuclearization will defeat the "maximum pressure" campaign (if it hasn't already), while it buys time for Kim to continue developing his WMDs and normalize his claimed status as a nuclear weapons power," said Pak.
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
Image: Reuters/A. Wallace
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The show must go on
Although there is no official certainty, there are signs that both sides are continuing to lay the groundwork for a summit. On Thursday, May 31, US Secretary of State Pompeo hosted Kim Yong-chol, the highest ranking North Korean official to visit the US in 18 years. After the meeting, Pompeo said the two sides had "made progress" and that Kim was expected to deliver a letter to President Trump from the North Korean leader on Friday.
Even if the summit does take place, there is currently no indication that either side has shifted their standpoint. It is also unclear if both sides agree to the meaning of "complete denuclearization." Although they apparently "completely dismantled" their nuclear test site, North Korea has yet to express any willingness to dismantle their nuclear capabilities or "immediately" denuclearize.
"Based on the sequence of events that led to Trump's non-cancellation/cancellation of the summit with Kim, it seems that there are signs of policy dysfunction in this White House with respect to North Korea policy," said Pak.
While the symbolic value of a US-North Korea summit cannot be denied, outcomes changing the strategic landscape are far from certain.
It seems that for the Trump Administration, the act of holding the summit would be seen as a victory.
"It would be nothing short of tragic to let this opportunity go to waste," said Secretary Pompeo on Thursday.
Looking closer, the best-case outcome of a summit is most likely to be just the beginning of long-term, technical negotiations. But if Trump's history is any indication, he would be satisfied with the appearance of unprecedented diplomacy.
"All roads to peace on the Korean Peninsula obviously have to run through Seoul and Pyongyang," said Fitzpatrick.
"North and South Korea can by themselves make many strides toward peace. But North Korea has always demanded that the US be its main interlocutor. And of course, the US role is crucial because of the nuclear umbrella it wields. So ultimately, real progress toward denuclearization must involve the US, even if its influence is diminished by Trump's poor judgment and leadership."
