"The back of the Pakistani Taliban has been broken," Rehman Malik, the Pakistani Interior Minister, claimed at the weekend while talking to reporters. He also said that Maulana Fazlullah, the local Taliban leader was “surrounded and would not be able to escape.”

Pakistan has put a reward of nearly 600,000 US dollars on the radical cleric, whose star has risen since 2007 and who has thousands of followers. They are known to have killed several of his opponents. They are also ardent supporters of Sharia law.

Last week, the army arrested Fazlullah’s spokesman, Muslim Khan, and four other militants in the Swat valley.

Rehman Malik said that Khan had revealed information under interrogation that could help track Fazlullah’s hideout.

Fazlullah might have got away

But the military has been very cautious and officials have refrained from giving a timeframe for Fazlullah’s possible capture.

Some fear that he might have got away since the mountainous parts of Pakistan’s northwest provide good hiding spaces and have often been used by militants as havens.

“If he decides not to be confrontational then I don’t think he will be arrested,” said Rustam Shah Mohmand, Pakistan’s former ambassador to Afghanistan. “There are many areas in that part of the country, the mountainous part of the country, where he can take shelter for a long time provided he has the resources to sustain himself.”

Major blows to the Taliban

The Pakistani Taliban have suffered some major blows since the military launched an offensive in the north-west in late April, with the biggest setback being in mid-August when an airstrike killed Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan. Since then, several militants have been killed or captured.

The military has also been targeting militants linked with Lashkar-e Islam in the Khyber region since early this month.

The group, which has ties with the Taliban, is suspected of being behind several attacks on trucks carrying supplies for Western forces in Afghanistan.

The group leader, Mangal Bagh, has vowed to conduct revenge attacks.

But the Interior Minister is confident that the army will capture him soon: “I warn Mangal Bagh that he will face the same fate as other militants.”

Even if these arrests are made, experts doubt whether such gains will really mean an end to the Pakistani Taliban, as thousands of armed fighters along the border are still at large.

“Real threat is in tribal areas”

Ahmad Rashid, a prominent Pakistani expert on the Taliban, said: “The real threat is in the tribal areas, in South Waziristan, North Waziristan, and in the other tribal agencies and so far we have not seen any military action there.”

He added that the international community was keen for the army to push into these areas in particular.

But there has been no clear indication from the army so far that an operation will take place in South Waziristan. Some observers think it wants to carry out an offensive after Ramadan, while others doubt the operation will ever take place.

Rustam Shah Mohmand thinks any operation will be on a smaller scale: “I think the army is going to launch an operation in the area soon. But if you are talking about a Malakand-like operation then there is no need, because Mehsud is dead, Qari Hussain is dead and the public support for the Taliban is waning.”

Suspected US-led airstrikes targeting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in South and North Waziristan are continuing. Pakistani officials said on Monday that a missile from a suspected US drone had hit a car and killed at least five militants. It was the third such attack in North Waziristan within the past week.

Author: Disha Uppal
Editor: Anne Thomas