Israel and Russia have reportedly agreed to allow Syrian troops near the Israeli border as long as no Iranian forces are present. The deal is aimed at reducing tension in the region, but could enforcing it prove tough?
Image: Imago/Itar-Tass
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Israeli media reported this week that Israel and Russia have reached an agreement that allows Syrian government troops under President Bashar Assad to return to the Golan Heights border region, as long as the Russians guarantee no Iranian or Hezbollah troops will be there. Israel's government has increasingly voiced concerned about Iran's presence in Syria in recent months and, since February, launched repeated airstrikes against Iranian military targets in the country.
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Assad's forces should be the only military presence on Syria's southern border. "Of course, all non-Syrian forces should be withdrawn on a reciprocal basis," he told Russia's RIA news agency. "This should be a two-way process. The situation, when only representatives of the Syrian armed forces will be deployed on the Syrian side of the border with Israel, should become the outcome of such work."
Iran's presence in Syria has put the Israeli military on high alertImage: Getty Images/AFP/J. Marey
As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear, Israel's ultimate goal is to have no Iranian presence in Syria. "Israel is not interested in partial agreements, but the removal of the Iranian army from all of Syria," his office told Hadashot news.
Avoiding Israel-Iran 'battlefield'
As Israeli-Iranian tensions continue to escalate, Russia is hoping to keep the two countries from waging a full-blown proxy war in Syria, explained Yossi Mekelberg, an international relations professor at Regent's University London and research fellow at the Chatham House think tank. "The Russians would not like to see Syria become a battlefield between Israel and Iran. It diverts from Russian interests," he told DW. "The Russians are not great friends with Iran. They have a common interest with the Iranians to keep [Assad] in power, but that's about it."
According to Mekelberg, the Iranians would likely consent to such an agreement with the Russians. "Russia is calling the shots in Syria right now and is the country with the most leverage there," he said. He did note, however, that Iran could opt to resist the agreement in some fashion. "If the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were to defy Russia, it could really test [President Vladimir] Putin's resolve," he said. For now, however, Mekelberg believes that the Iranians likely not interested in escalating Syria's ongoing civil war.
While the agreement is an effort to reduce tension in the region, Israel is likely to demand strict adherence to the deal from all sides. "Israel has declared that it won't tolerate Iranian presence in Syria close to the border and the trade of weapons with Hezbollah," Mekelberg said, noting that the Israeli military could launch more airstrikes towards Iranian targets in Syria if it were to spot Iranian troops among Assad's army near the Golan Heights.
Netanyahu heads to Europe
Netanyahu is set to travel to Berlin and Paris next week for talks expected to focus on Iran. While the Israeli prime minister is likely to make the issue of Iran's military presence in Syria a key focus of his trip, his European counterparts may find other issues, such as rescuing the Iranian nuclear deal, to be a higher priority.
"I would be very surprised if any of the Europeans would be interested in starting a war with Iran and conducting airstrikes against Iran," Mekelberg said. "There are issues that need to be addressed, such as Iran developing ballistic missiles. Iran is an expansionist country in the region and has to be contained. But military operations are not necessarily the answer to contain Iran. This is definitely not the case for striking Iran directly."
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
