Alassane Ouattara will run for a fourth term as president of Ivory Coast, thanks largely to constitutional changes he implemented himself in 2016 which reset term limits. Nine years ago, he justified the move citing the country's ongoing "security, economic and monetary challenges," which required "experienced leadership." Ouattara also previously said on several occasions that he wanted to step down from office.

"The security argument in the West African sub-region is well founded," said Alexander Stroh-Steckelberg, chair of the faculty of African politics and development policy at the University of Bayreuth.

"However, the security argument is not necessarily a good argument for extending the mandate," he told DW.

Ouattara's ruling party, the Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP), has again nominated him for the top job. The 83-year-old former banker has led Ivory Coast since 2011, and claimed in a video message on his X account that both the constitution and his health allow him to serve another term. Explaining his decision to break his earlier promise not to run again, he said, "Duty sometimes takes precedence over a promise made in good faith."

An expected surprise

Lawyer and analyst Geoffroy Kouao told DW: "It must be acknowledged that this outcome is not surprising, considering the party's activists unanimously endorsed Ouattara as the RHDP candidate for the 2025 presidential election. Although it still caught many people off guard."

In June, during the RHDP's second congress, party members unanimously endorsed a new candidacy for Ouattara, who also serves as the party's president. According to Sekou Dao of the RHDP political council, Ouattara's announcement is simply a positive response to the unified request from his political base.

"I always expected President Ouattara to run again," Dao explained. "With only three months remaining before such a crucial election, it would be unthinkable to select a different candidate now. Doing so would even be disrespectful to the party's dedicated activists."

'The president has deceived the entire nation'

The opposition views Outtara's running for a fourth term as yet another breach of the Ivorian constitution, and wants to challenge it in court. "Despite all our warnings, it is clear the president's word holds little weight," Damana Adia Pickass, vice president of the party led by Outtara's predecessor Laurent Gbagbo, told DW.

"The president has deceived the entire nation, which is unacceptable," he said, commenting on Outtara's previous promises to step down. "We will utilize every legal avenue available to ensure the constitution is upheld."

Opposition barred from running

Several opposition candidates have been barred from the upcoming election, despite a joint campaign by the biggest parties demanding their party leaders be reinstated as presidential candidates.

Tidjane Thiam (PDCI-RDA) was disqualified for formerly being an Ivorian-French dual citizen, even though Thiam has renounced his French nationality. Thousands of his supporters took to the streets in Abidjan to protest against his disqualification. And former President Gbagbo, his former aide Charles Ble Goude and former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro have also been excluded, mainly due to legal convictions or restrictions stemming from past political conflicts.

"Today's announcement by Ouattara constitutes a violation of our Constitution and a new attack on democracy," said Thiam. 

The disqualifications have been criticized domestically and internationally as damaging to Ivorian democracy and undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Ouattara's announcement comes amid political polarization and legal challenges, intensifying the already fraught political landscape ahead of the October election. A planned demonstration on August 2 was also banned by the prefecture in Abidjan.

"In politics, every action provokes a reaction," said political analyst Kouao. "The opposition will likely seek other lawful means to oppose what they deem a fourth term."

No peaceful transfer of power in 35 years

Since the death of the Ivory Coast's first president, Felix Houphouet-Boigny in 1993, elections have historically sparked tensions. The country has yet to experience a peaceful transfer of power in 35 years of democracy.

The ongoing dispute regarding the exclusion of opposition candidates is reminiscent of the violent electoral conflicts of the past, notably the 2010-2011 crisis that resulted in over 3,000 fatalities. Ouattara's contentious third-term campaign in 2020, which followed the death of his chosen successor, Amadou Gon Coulibaly, also ignited turmoil.

Over 8.7 million Ivorians are registered to vote. Meanwhile, civil society organizations and religious figures, such as the Catholic Bishops' Conference, have voiced deep concern about the increasing political polarization across the nation.

Edited by: Cai Nebe