Seven years after almost 20,000 people died in an earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeast Japan, experts fear that Monday's tremor could be the harbinger of the much-feared rupture of Nankai Trough.
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When the earthquake struck Osaka on Monday, Jamie El-Banna was in his apartment in Namba district. British-born El-Banna has lived in Japan for more than a decade and has felt numerous tremors in that time, but he admits this one was alarming.
"It was a proper shake. I have experienced a lot over the years," he told DW.
The 6.1-magnitude quake — the largest within the prefecture since records were first started in 1923 — was a mere 13 kilometers below the surface in the northern part of Osaka Prefecture. Four people were killed as a result of the quake, including a 9-year-old girl who died when a brick wall collapsed on her, while the shocks were strong enough to be felt in Tokyo, more than 500 kilometers to the east.
The Japan Meteorological Agency swiftly reassured the public that as the quake had occurred inland, there was no likelihood of a tsunami such as the one that devastated large parts of northeast Japan in March 2011 after a major tremor, although they did warn of potentially serious aftershocks over the coming weeks and even months.
Thirty-one aftershocks
According to the agency's statistics, no fewer than 31 aftershocks with a magnitude of between one and four were recorded in Osaka on Tuesday. And perhaps with memories of the Tohoku tragedy fresh in their minds, many residents scrambled to buy basic necessities in case the tremor was not the main shock but a precursor to a major earthquake.
"There was a lot of panic buying in supermarkets around the city, but particularly in areas that were close to the epicenter," said El-Banna, who set up the NGO It's Not Just Mud in the aftermath of the Tohoku disaster and spent a year helping local people rebuild their homes, schools, communities and lives.
"In Osaka, pretty much everything is back to normal already. Gas and electricity supplies are back on and the trains are running as they usually do," he said. But there are many, he admits, who fear that something more serious is about to hit.
"If a quake on the scale of Tohoku hits, it would be a far bigger tragedy because this is a far more built-up and densely populated region, while the economic impact would be felt for years," said El-Banna.
In December, the Japanese government revised its estimation of a major earthquake in Nankai Trough — which runs parallel to the coastline of southern Japan directly off Osaka — from 70 percent to between 70 and 80 percent in the next 30 years. It is this fault line that is considered to be the biggest threat to Japan and its people.
Studies suggest that large bouts of seismic activity within the trough occur at intervals of between 100 and 150 years. The most recent tremor was in 1946, when nearly 1,400 people died in a magnitude 8.1 earthquake. In 1854, more than 3,000 people died in a tremor that measured 8.4 in magnitude.
Since then, however, Osaka has grown into a vast, sprawling metropolis that is home to millions and any quake of a similar scale, particularly one that triggers a tsunami, is going to cause vastly more damage and loss of life. A study by the Cabinet Office's Disaster Management Bureau estimated that 17,800 people would die as a result of a major earthquake, while the economic impact could reach as high as Y57 trillion ($515 billion, €445 billion).
On average, some 10,000 people die in earthquakes around the world annually. The temblors have often provoked tsunamis and wider devastation. DW takes a look at some of the most powerful earthquakes of the last century.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Barret
Most powerful earthquake ever recorded
The most powerful earthquake ever recorded hit Chile's coast in May 1960. The quake, 9.5 on the Richter scale, lasted almost 10 minutes, resulting in massive infrastructure damage. Around 5,700 people were killed in Chile while the resulting tsunami left 130 people dead in Japan and another 61 in Hawaii. This picture shows the remains of Corral harbor in Chile's Valdivia province.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
Good Friday earthquake
The 1964 Alaskan earthquake, also known as the Great Alaskan earthquake and Good Friday earthquake, remains the strongest earthquake to hit the US to date. It occured on Good Friday, March 27, across south-central Alaska. The quake and the following tsunamis caused about 139 deaths. The picture above is from a small fishing village on Kodiak Island and it shows debris from houses and boats.
Image: Getty Images/Central Press
Most powerful earthquake ever recorded in Japan
A team member from Japan's Rescue Dog Association and his dog search for victims. Northeastern Japan was struck by a devastating earthquake, measuring 9.1 on the moment magnitude scale, followed by a massive tsunami. The natural disasters claimed almost 18,500 lives, and crippled the Fukushima nuclear power plant, in what is considered the world's worst nuclear power disaster since Chernobyl.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Y. Chiba
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake
The undersea megathrust earthquake, magnitude 9.1, triggered a series of devastating tsunamis, killing some 280,000 people in 14 different countries and inundating coastal communities with waves up to a 100 feet. It was one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history.
Image: Getty Images/P.M. Bonafede/U.S. Navy
Kamchatka earthquake
A megathrust earthquake occurred off the coast of Kamchatka Peninsula in eastern Russia on November 4, 1952. The 9.0 magnitude quake caused a tsunami leading to widespread destruction and loss of life around the Kamchatka peninsula and the Kuril Islands. More than 2,300 people were killed.
2010 Chile earthquake
An 8.8 magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of central Chile in February 2010. It triggered a tsunami which devastated several coastal towns in south-central Chile and damaged the port at Talcahuano. The quake and the following tsunami resulted in the deaths of around 450 people, while damage to the local fisheries' business was estimated at 66.7 million US dollars.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Bernetti
China 1976 quake
An abandoned railway coach in Tangshan, China after an earthquake devastated the industrial town on July 28, 1976. The quake, measured at 7.4, struck near the industrial city in northeastern Hebei province. The official death toll is given as 242,000 but is believed to be significantly higher. Some estimates put the deathtoll at around 500,000.
Image: Getty Images/Keystone/Hulton Archive
1920 Haiyuan earthquake
The earthquake, measured at 8.3, occurred in the Haiyuan county of the northern province of Ningxia and caused aftershocks for almost three years. As a result, up to 235,000 people died immediately. Many more, who were living in camps due to the continuing aftershocks, perished later due to severe winter conditions.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
2010 Haiti earthquake
A man walks amid the rubble of a destroyed building in Port-au-Prince following the devastating earthquake that rocked Haiti on January 12, 2010. With a magnitude of 7.0, the quake destroyed thousands of buildings and left at least 200,000 people dead.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Barret
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'No way to predict'
"The problem is that there is no way to predict this kind of seismic activity because of its randomness," said Yoshiaki Hisada, a professor specializing in earthquakes at Kogakuin University.
"But it is indeed possible that Monday's quake was a precursor to something much larger in the coming days, and the only advice that can be given is that people should be prepared and take precautions," he told DW.
Tomoaki Osaki, senior coordinator for seismological information at the Meteorological Agency, points out that the June 18 quake was in the earth's crust rather on the border of tectonic plates, which reduces the likelihood of an even larger tremor in the coming days and weeks. But he admits that there are concerns over Nankai Trough.
"It is difficult to tell if there is a connection between this quake and activity in Nankai Trough, but the latest estimate is that there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of an event occurring within the next 30 years," he said.
How other countries do emergency preparedness
The German government has updated its civil defense plan, requiring residents to stockpile food, medicine and cash. Amid complaints of scaremongering, DW discovers how other countries prepare for emergencies.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Taga
Earthquake drills part of school life in Japan
Elementary schoolchildren across Japan take part in monthly earthquake drills. They learn to get under their desk and hold onto its legs until the tremors stop. Some youngsters are given disaster prevention hoods, which can cushion fragile heads from falling objects. Multistory schools even have chutes for children to slide down to safety.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Taga
Japan leads the way in emergency warnings
Many countries, including the US, have emergency warning systems that can override radio and TV broadcasts with vital public information. But Japan has gone a stage further with its Earthquake Early Warning System. Using the latest technology, it can predict a major tremor up to 50 seconds before it happens. The warnings are broadcast instantaneously, as every second counts when saving lives.
Image: APTV video
Every home's got a panic room!
In Switzerland, all residential buildings built since 1963 are required to have a nuclear bunker. The shelter must be able to withstand a blast from a 12-megaton explosion at a 700-meter distance. In Singapore, one room in most state-built flats is reinforced to serve as a bomb shelter - although not nuclear-proof. In 2012, the government rejected calls to drop the requirement.
Image: picture-alliance/Keystone/M. Ruetschi
Lessons learned from previous disasters
The 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami took the world by surprise. The first major tidal wave in the Indian Ocean in 600 years killed 250,000 people. The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System, which was set up following the disaster, has already saved lives in subsequent emergencies. In Thailand and Sri Lanka, new signs point residents towards higher ground in the event of another killer wave.
Image: picture-alliance/Arco Images/F. Schneider
Norway, a reminder to all
Most large cities hold regular terror drills to allow emergency services to prepare for a real attack. But what happens if a rural area is targeted? In 2011, Norwegian authorities were ridiculed for taking more than an hour to reach Utoya island, where Anders Breivik shot dead 69 people. But subsequent plans to station fast-response helicopters around the country have been scaled down, over costs.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/I. Aserud
Health scares can lead to knee-jerk reactions
Over the past decade, growing fears about possible flu pandemics prompted several countries, including Germany and the US, to stockpile medicine. In 2009, billions of euros were spent to build up reserves of the drug Tamiflu, only for its effectiveness against Swine Flu to be later questioned. Critics also warned that many doses could never be used as they had already expired.
Image: picture-alliance/Ulrich Baumgarten
Disasters and disruption to law and order
The survivalist movement, where people actively prepare for emergencies, began in the 1930s. But the internet and the 2007/8 financial crisis helped speed up the global spread of its often apocolyptic warnings. Preppers, as they're known, prioritize worst-case scenarios and then work out ways to survive these threats. Pole Adolf Kudlinski collects tools and supplies for his prep farm (pictured).
Image: picture-alliance/PAP/M. Walczak
Will iodine help in case of a nuclear disaster?
Belgium, the Netherlands and the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia are stockpiling iodine tablets in case of a radiation leak. Belgium has admitted its ageing nuclear reactors, near the German border, are to remain in service until 2025, despite growing safety concerns. After the Brussels attacks, fears are mounting that "Islamic State" (IS) may be planning to build a so-called dirty bomb.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O. Berg
That twister is how close?
Smartphone apps and text messages are now being used to deliver emergency information to the public in several disaster-prone countries, including India and The Philippines. In the US, the Wireless Emergency Alert system can deliver details about national threats, news of local disasters like tornadoes, earthquakes and hurricanes, and alerts about abducted children. Author: Nik Martin
