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PoliticsJapan

Japan in limbo as Takaichi's win breaks ruling coalition

Julian Ryall in Tokyo
October 13, 2025

Last week, Sanae Takaichi was firmly set to become Japan's first female prime minister — its own "Iron Lady" — and reinvigorate her Liberal Democratic Party. Now, she may instead preside over the party's collapse.

Takaichi hold up a finger while speaking in parliament, March 27, 2023
Opposition parties are considering backing a rival to Sanae Takaichi in parliamentImage: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Japan's political elites are scrambling for new allies following the collapse of the ruling coalition that left even the prime ministerial post up for grabs.

Last week, nationalist Sanae Takaichi was elected head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and appeared to be on course to become the nation's first female leader.

Takaichi's ambitions took a significant blow on Friday, however, when the 26-year alliance between the LDP and the Buddhist-backed party Komeito broke down.

Analysts point out that the partnership has long been strained, with Komeito opposing a more aggressive security policy pushed by the LDP, but Takaichi taking over as LDP head appears to have been the last straw for the smaller party.

"Komeito was already worried about Takaichi's hawkish stance on security, on relations with South Korea and China, and their fear was that she would go even further as soon as she was in office," said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

Takaichi haunted by Yasukuni Shrine

A particularly sensitive issue both inside Japan and with its neighboring nations is Takaichi's stance on the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo.

The Yasukuni memorial site is a sore spot for Japanese leaders trying to balance nationalism with diplomacyImage: Eugene Hoshiko/AP/picture alliance

The shrine has been the last resting place of Japan's war dead since 1869. The war dead, however, include many of the nation's notorious war criminals.

Arch-conservative Takaichi has visited the Tokyo site in the past, even during her multiple tenures as Cabinet minister.

Any visits to the shrine by Japanese leaders prompt outrage in China, as well as both North and South Korea, as those countries see the gesture as an attempt to whitewash Japan's wartime atrocities.

Takaichi refused to give a clear answer when pressed over the shrine following her confirmation as the LDP leader on October 4. She did not rule out new visits and insisted that the shrine is "not a diplomatic issue," while also saying proper ways of honoring the war dead "should be judged at the appropriate time."

This, however, was enough to ring alarm bells among the pacifist leadership of Komeito.

Takaichi sparks anger by appointing ex-minister Hagiuda

Komeito leaders appear to have also been dismayed by Takaichi naming disgraced LDP ex-minister Koichi Hagiuda to a senior position within the LDP. Less than two years ago, Hagiuda was forced to resign from the party's Policy Research Council over a major financial scandal.

Hagiuda's return "has really annoyed Komeito and it makes it appear that Takaichi simply does not care about an issue that enraged the electorate and was arguably the main reason they have fared so badly in recent elections," said professor Murakami.

The decision-makers inside Komeito now seem to believe that staying in the coalition with the LDP would harm their own political reputation.

Sharks circling around LDP

Takaichi was always set to lead a minority government — even with the support of Komeito, which has 24 seats in the lower house of parliament. Their pullout now leaves LDP with 197 seats in the House of Representatives, short of the 233 required for a majority, and 101 seats in the House of Councillors, also well below the 125-seat threshold required for a majority.

The nationalist leader is now hoping to secure new political allies. At the same time, opposition parties aim to take full advantage of the LDP's political weakness.

"Takaichi and the LDP are both in deep trouble," surmises Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo's Waseda University.

Shigemura points out that Takaichi's rival Shinjiro Koizumi would almost certainly be able to convince Komeito to stay in the coalition. The moderate Koizumi, however, lost the internal vote against the nationalist Takaichi, who was backed by powerful LDP kingmaker and former Prime Minister Taro Aso.

"The party only elected her days ago and so they cannot realistically replace her, even though it seems clear they would have been far better off electing Shinjiro Koizumi," he told DW.

Observer: LDP has 'no political philosophy'

According to Shigemura, there is now a sense that the LDP is mortally wounded.

Takaichi is understood to have reached out to the centrist Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and the Japan Innovation Party, although both parties appear hesitant to agree to an alliance.

Even the far-right parties that won over disaffected LDP voters in the last election are keeping aloof in the hope of gaining more support on their own or even replacing LDP entirely if the party fully implodes.

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The LDP has ruled Japan virtually uninterrupted since it was formed in 1955. However, it has been bleeding support under the incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid a sagging economy and rising anti-immigrant sentiment. Takaichi was expected to step in and reverse the trend, but the LDP is now growing even more isolated among the political elite while also being weighed down by corruption scandals, with fear of diplomatic missteps looming in the future.

"Right now, the LDP does not have a political philosophy," said Shigemura. "It is simply trying to survive. And that is very worrying because the nation faces many serious issues that need to be addressed, at home and abroad."

Komeito to back united front against Takaichi

The political horse-trading is expected to continue for the rest of the coming week. Takaichi and her allies are forced to work fast to have any hope of meeting the original deadline for her parliamentary confirmation on October 20.

Meanwhile, opposition parties are discussing forming a united front and putting forward a single rival candidate. Should an opposition politician defeat Takaichi, it will be the first time since January 1996 that a non-LDP politician has been prime minister.

In a parting blow to their former coalition partner, Komeito has already pledged to support a unified candidate against Takaichi, regardless of who that candidate turns out to be.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

Julian Ryall Journalist based in Tokyo, focusing on political, economic and social issues in Japan and Korea
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