In the first of a series of meetings, Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Tuesday met US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who reassured him that the US would remain committed to providing security in Afghanistan even after US troops have left.

"As we look toward a responsible, orderly transition in the international combat mission in Afghanistan, we will not abandon the Afghan people," Clinton said. Karzai, meanwhile, reiterated that his country would stick to its responsibility to further develop Afghanistan's civilian and democratic structures.

The US commitment should serve as a reassurance to Karzai, whose visit comes as relations between Afghanistan and the West have cooled in recent months. Last month, following a visit by Obama to Kabul in late March, Karzai slammed the UN and the international community, accusing them of perpetrating a "vast fraud" in last year's presidential elections as part of a conspiracy to undermine his victory. He said Western coalition troops risked being seen as invaders rather than saviours of his country.

While many observers put it down to an attempt by a politically weakened Karzai to assert his legitimacy in Afghanistan, the unusually harsh outburst sparked criticism in Western capitals.

Wednesday's meeting between Karzai and Obama is seen as a crucial test of whether the two leaders can mend frayed ties, move beyond the recent war of words and get the Afghan-western partnership back on track.

Critical juncture

"Karzai's visit to the US is highly significant. It will help the US government show the political community in Washington that it still has control over Karzai. It shows that Karzai depends on the international community for his political survival. And it also shows that the West has no viable alternative to Karzai in Afghanistan," Henning Riecke, an analyst at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) told Deutsche Welle.

"From the Afghan government point of view, this visit which takes place at a sensitive time, is extremely important," Waheed Omar, Karzai's spokesman told reporters last week.

It comes amid a US military surge in Afghanistan and ahead of a major offensive against militants in the southern Afghan province of Kandahar. The talks in Washington also take place amid mounting anger in Afghanistan against rising civilian casualties and dwindling public support for the Afghan mission in the West.

Experts say the meetings in Washington, which will include talks with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and top intelligence and counterterrorism officials, are likely to address a host of tough issues that go to the heart of western involvement in Afghanistan.

"The Kandahar military operation will be at the top of the agenda. I expect a lot of robust discussions in Washington because the NATO operation there is going to upset a lot of Karzai's family interests in the province," Fabrice Pothier, head of Carnegie Europe, a forum for European policymakers and think-tanks, told Deutsche Welle.

"And the other big issue will be negotiations with the Taliban. They are a part of Afghanistan, whether we like it or not."

Tricky talks with the Taliban

A peace conference, or jirga, to forge a national consensus on how to reconcile with the Taliban is to take place later this month in Kabul.

The British newspaper the Guardian reported recently that Afghanistan is proposing to offer top Taliban leaders exile if they agree to stop fighting against the government. The newspaper refered to a document suggesting insurgent leaders could face "potential exile in a third country." It also calls for "deradicalisation" classes for insurgents and thousands of new manual jobs to be created for Taliban fighters who lay down their arms.

Plans to reach out to the Taliban aren't now. In a shift in strategy, most Western nations now accept that any political solution to the Afghanistan conflict must include moderate elements of the Taliban. Earlier this year, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle drummed up support for an "exit program" for Taliban fighters funded by the international community.

But some point out that the country that finds it the hardest to embrace talks with the Taliban is the US.

"The Americans are ambivalent about bringing the Taliban to the table due to their links with al Qaeda. It's heightened after the botched bombing at Times Square," Pothier said. "Any agreement with the Taliban has to involve security guarantees on both sides - the Taliban must sever links with al Qaeda and the US must guarantee that Taliban fighters won't be imprisoned or killed. For the US president, justifying making a deal with the Taliban is a hard sell at home. "

European involvement

Observers say that though European allies lack the political clout the US has in Afghanistan, the talks in Washington will be followed carefully across the Atlantic.

"On hard political questions, Europe is out of the picture in Afghanistan. We don't have the same credibility as the US because we aren't taking the same risks as the US. But at the same time, Europe has a long-term interest in institution-building in Afghanistan. So the talks in the US remain important to Europe's future role (in Afghanistan)," Pothier said.

Many European governments are grappling with waning support at home for the war in Afghanistan as troop casualties rise. Experts say it stands to reason that good ties between Kabul and Washington would help Obama fulfill his pledge to start bringing US troops home in mid-2011 - and thus signal the way for an end in sight to the Afghan engagement.

"When Obama announced he would begin a partial withdrawal of troops in mid-2011 it was greeted with cheer in Europe. It was interpreted here as a possible end of the deployment. But that's not what it's going to be. We can expect some tough discussions and friction between the US and its European allies later in November this year when American generals review the success of the surge," Riecke said.

Expert: West should rethink Afghan policy

Expectations are high that Karzai will reassure the West that he remains a reliable partner in Afghanistan and that his government is willing and able to tackle corruption. But some experts say that it's also a chance for Western nations to rethink strategy in Afghanistan.

"Western capitals keep making demands on Kabul on corruption and governance. But the fact is that much of the corruption is fuelled by international aid money. The price per square meter of property in Kabul is higher than in Tokyo - it's a bubble created by the West," Porthier said.

The expert pointed out that a host of events in Afghanistan this year - the peace conference, a foreign donor nations meeting in July, parliamentary elections in September - offer a chance for the West to pursue a different script in Afghanistan.

"The reality of the Afghan state is that the Western-backed Karzai government in Kabul has not percolated to the country's provinces and districts. Karzai and his smart English-speaking ministers who travel the world have failed to deliver basic services to the majority of the Afghan people," Porthier said.

"The West needs to take a hard look at what's gone wrong and push for broader political change and reform in Afghanistan."

Author: Sonia Phalnikar
Editor: Michael Knigge