At his three-story workshop in an old mud-and-brick house in Hawal, in India-administrated Kashmir, 65-year-old Akhtar Mir leads a team of papier-mache artisans.

The workshop is heavy with the smell of paint. Workers sit cross-legged on the floor, their hands stained and smudged as they decorate vases, elephants and ornamental boxes with colorful patterns of flowers and birds. 

For three generations, Mir's family has taught this meticulous art and passed down passion for it. Today, the workshop is more than just Mir's family legacy — it also allows dozens of local artisans to support their families.

Each year, Mir and his team create special papier-mache pieces for Christmas orders destined for the United States and Europe. But, with Donald Trump's administration imposing new tariffs on India, this holiday season might be different.

"We are worried about the new tariffs. We haven't received orders for Christmas yet," he told DW.

"My workers' livelihood will be impacted if we do not get the orders," he said.

And Trump's tariffs are not the only reason to be concerned. Kashmiri artisans sell a lot of their products to tourists, but the Pahalgam attack in April has caused the number of tourists to sharply decline this year.

'This work does not make us happy anymore'

Even the people weaving luxurious Kashmiri carpets are worried about being cut off from wealthy buyers in the United States.

"This work does not make us happy anymore; it is stressful and uncertain," said Abdul Majid, a carpet weaver from Kunzer village in northern Kashmir.

For many years, the US demand for textiles, carpets and artisan goods has fueled Kashmir's handicraft industry. But, because of the dispute between Washington and New Delhi over Russian oil, the United States has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on a range of products from India.

Foreign buyers were already paying premium prices for Kashmiri handicraft products because of the value of artistry and skilled laborers required to make the goods. However, the prices have risen sharply under the new tariff regime and the demand is expected to fall, placing the livelihoods of thousands of artisans in jeopardy.

Italy as potential rival for artisanal goods

The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) decries the US tariffs as "catastrophic" for the handicraft sector.

"We believe the government is working on this and they can offer incentives for exporters to bring some semblance to the trade," KCCI head Javid Ahmad Tenga said.

Instead of buying from Kashmir, US customers could turn to countries such as Italy, where the US tariffs are capped at 15%, a senior official in the Department of Handicrafts and Handloom in Kashmir told DW.

"This effectively ensures that Kashmir's handicrafts will be pushed out of the market. Many US customers have already put their orders on hold, which makes it difficult to keep our looms and artisans engaged with work. In turn, this creates the risk of unemployment," the official said.

About 400,000 artisans are registered with the regional government. A major disruption to their work would also lead to a loss of skills, according to the official, who requested anonymity.

"Once an artisan shifts to another occupation, we lose not only the present workforce but also the future potential to produce such high-quality goods," the official said.

Luxury goods out of reach for US buyers

Before the geopolitical feud between India and the United States, the exported goods attracted import duties of 8-12%, with US buyers paying about $1.2 billion annually to buy up roughly 60% of India's handicraft exports.

Kashmiri handicraft exporter Mujataba Qadri said Trump's tariffs were a serious blow to the region's artisanal sector.

Qadri said luxury goods were particularly vulnerable to rising prices, as buyers tend to postpone or forgo their purchases.

"With tariffs increasing by 50%, everything we export from Kashmir to the US — shawls, rugs, papier-mache — falls into the luxury and nonessential category," said Qadri, who runs the cashmere weaving and exporting company Me & K.

"A firm like Me & K, which sends 80% of its exports to the US, will be significantly affected. For example, a shawl that retailed at $300 will now cost $450, a substantial jump. As a result, most people are likely to cancel their orders," Qadri said.

Looming uncertainty

Experts warn that the new tariffs could cut exports by half and threaten 500,000 to 700,000 artisanal jobs across India. 

Shawl weaver Afroza Jan in Zonimar, on the outskirts of Srinigar in Kashmir, is already feeling the pressure.

"It is a lot of grind and hard work," the 39-year-old Afroza, who spends her working day at her home loom, told DW. "My eyes hurt, and my back aches. But this is our only livelihood," she added. "Our dealer canceled some orders, saying there is an uncertainty in the market."

Her husband and sister-in-law also weave the luxury shawls, which take months to years to make, and bulk orders require 10 or more people from her family to pitch in.

"If we lose work, then it will impact our whole families," she said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic