Appointing someone to head the UN's annual climate talks can spark outrage among climate campaigners. But that seemed to be less of an issue this year when Brazilian veteran diplomat Andre Correa do Lago was handed the role.

With more than two decades of experience working in sustainability, he is widely seen as a logical pick for the November talks to be held in the Amazon. But regardless of his expertise at the negotiating table, he says conflict, trade wars and a political shift to the right are all making climate diplomacy more challenging.

"It is a complex context," he explained, speaking exclusively to DW on the sidelines of the recent interim climate conference in Bonn. "But all presidents of COPs say that their COP is happening at a very special and difficult moment."

An important issue for him is making sure the issue of climate change remains relevant. Particularly given that there are so many other things going on "that affect people's lives more directly, that affect politicians more directly, and that affect the economy more directly."

Indeed, Russia's war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and US-imposed trade tariffs have increasingly dominated headlines and political agendas. But that does not mean temperature rise is slowing.

"Unfortunately, we are having wars, we're having very serious things happening, but in spite of that, climate change is progressing, and climate change is a bigger and bigger threat," he said.

A transition away from fossil fuels

That threat has many different faces. Already this year heatwaves, intensified by climate change, have led to more than a thousand deaths in Europe, fueled wildfires in the US, Canada, Turkey and South Korea and worsened flooding in Argentina, parts of Africa, and most recently in Texas.

There is pressure is on the Brazilian presidency under Correa do Lago to drive significant progress in this year's summit — which comes a decade after the inception of the Paris Agreement.

Seen at the time as a big step towards tackling the climate crisis, the accord obliges governments to take action on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the planet to heat up. 

Brazil's own policies in the spotlight

But with months to go until the summit kicks off in the Brazilian city of Belem, the country itself has come under scrutiny. It is selling off oil exploration rights — including at 19 sites around the mouth of the Amazon River. Critics say this raises questions around Brazil's own commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels.

But Correa do Lago is pragmatic on the issue, saying that it is up to each country to determine its path away from coal, oil and gas.

"Brazil is quite convinced that we can use some of the wealth that the oil brings to us to accelerate the transition," he said. "We don't have the perfect answer, but we have a very fair debate in the country about what we do with the oil that we may have."

US withdrawal from climate negotiations

That thinking, however, is not in line with a roadmap published by the autonomous intergovernmental International Energy Agency. Back in 2021, the IEA said that there could be no new commitments for oil and gas fields if the world was stay below the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming threshold agreed at the 2015 Paris talks. 

But June 2024 was the twelfth consecutive month measuring global surface temperatures of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial conditions. That does not mean the target has been breached, but many scientists predict it will happen in the next few years. This would lead to more extreme heat, devastating droughts and more intense storms.

Still, Correa do Lago says the 1.5 limit remains a possibility, even if it means first overshooting the goal and using technology to bring the temperature back down. But, he said, it will need "everybody on board doing the right thing". Something that currently seems unlikely.

While the US is among the 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement, when President Donald Trump took office in January, he announced his plans to withdraw his country from the accord. Correa do Lago sees the departure of the world's second biggest emitter as a setback for the climate agenda.

"The US quitting is something that really complicates many things from a political point of view."

But he welcomed the fact that some US states, cities and businesses remain committed to the international accord.

"When we think that the US has left the Paris Accord, it's the US central government," Correa do Lago added. "There are some evaluations that believe that more than 35 states in the US will continue to follow the Paris Accord and will continue to have their state laws [...] this would correspond to almost 70% of the US economy."

Economic changes that incorporate climate change

Correa do Lago sees widespread resistance to necessary economic changes in countries across the world, but believes it is shortsighted to decouple the economy from climate action. 

Describing himself as "an optimist," he said there is already evidence that taking action against runaway temperature rise "can bring economic growth, can bring more jobs." Nonetheless, it is "not yet very well incorporated into full policies of governments."

He would like to see climate integrated into economics, finance and other sectors, adding that taking a step towards a less siloed approach would be a focus for the next climate summit.

"This is one of our main objectives – to translate how this [COP] process has generated enough information, enough progress, to be able to think of a new economy in which you can mainstream climate change." 

Edited by: Tamsin Walker