Kenya has been experiencing a heavier-than-usual rainy season that has unleashed flooding in the northwest of the country. Researchers say warming oceans are causing unpredictable weather patterns in East Africa.
Image: picture-alliance/AP
Advertisement
At least 36 people — including seven children — were killed in mudslides in Kenya on Saturday, according to the country's Interior Ministry. At least five others died in flooding-related incidents in the East African nation.
The downpour began on Friday near the Ugandan border and worsened overnight, causing flooding and mudslides that swept away four bridges and left the worst-affected village, Muino, inaccessible by road.
"More people are marooned and the entire village is at risk of being wiped out by the floods," the county's governor, John Lonyangapuo, said as he waited for a helicopter to transport him to survey the damage.
Weather forecasting improves as weather events intensify
Since satellites started recording weather data in the 1970s forecasting has taken a huge step forward. It isn't just about sun or rain any more. It's about giving people more time to prepare for extreme weather events.
Image: Reuters/NOAA
Seven days ahead
Weather forecasting has improved massively. 40 years ago meteorologists could only predict weather for the next two or three days. Today weather can be predicted reliably for seven days. But forecasters also give monthly and seasonal predictions. These can be tremendously important for agriculture. If a severe storm is predicted ahead of time, farmers can prepare.
Image: Getty Images/S. Keith
Models and mathematics
Weather is forecast with the help of supercomputers that predict the weather using complex mathematical models and current weather conditions. Some centers for weather prediction take account of up to 900 million global points. For the prediction, the world is split up into grids with grid points spaced 9 km apart.
Image: ECMWF
Pooling data across borders
In 1975 several European states decided to share their data to improve the forecast. They set up the “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast” (ECMWF). Today the centre has 22 member states, 12 co-operating countries and some of the world's most modern supercomputers.
Image: ECMWF
Taking more elements into account
Roughly a year and a half ago the centre expanded its weather models. Before, they were based on atmospheric predictions. Now the forecasts take more elements into account, such as ocean and land data. This makes them more reliable. With the weather changing due to climate change, forecasts are changing too. Scientists still cannnot link climate change and weather change exactly.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/T. Katic
Life or death predictions
Scientists are sure that climate change intensifies extreme weather events. Heatwaves are even hotter, hurricanes are more intense. That means weather forecasting today is also about saving lives and protecting property. If the forecasts are more exact and data is available faster, people can prepare better for severe weather events.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/R. Kakade
Very hard to predict
Thunder and lightning are very hard to forecast and becoming more intense. It is impossible to predict exactly where lightning will strike. However, this might well improve. The ECMWF is working on predicting lightning within a 50 km range.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
More time to prepare
In general, weather forecasting will continue to improve. By 2025 reliable weather forecasts might cover 10 days instead of the seven that are possible today. That could well mean three extra days to prepare for storms and extreme weather.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Lo Presti
7 images1 | 7
Heavy rains to persist
Eleven of the people killed were in the same house, Lonyangapuo said.
He added that more than 500 vehicles were stuck on roads damaged by the landslides. Rescue efforts were underway in the area.
Harsh rescue conditions
The Kenyan government sent military and police helicopters to help those affected by the floods, but the scope of the disaster was not yet clear, according to Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi.
"While rescue and recovery efforts remain the priority, a full assessment into the extent of damage caused continues to be a challenge due to harsh weather conditions,'' Matiangi said.
The International Rescue Committee said earlier this month that many people had been reeling from an earlier severe drought in the region.
Heavy rain in parts of Somalia, South Sudan and Kenya are expected for four to six more weeks.
