In his first campaign speech, the UK's opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said Labour can win the June election. Eschewing calls to make this a plebiscite on Brexit, he drew on old battles that may have already been lost.
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Corbyn, whose Labour Party trails Prime Minister Theresa May's ruling Conservatives by over 20 points in the polls, set out his stall as an anti-establishment candidate at a hall in central London packed with supporters on Thursday.
"The idea that Labour is somehow or other a tainted brand - well, there are people in the audience that are wearing badges of Keir Hardie [Labour's founder in 1900]," Corbyn said.
"He was vilified, vilified beyond belief, when he was elected as the first ever Labour MP. Anyone who stands up to create a better, fairer, more decent society gets vilified. Our party gets vilified."
May called a June 8 election on Tuesday, three years ahead of schedule. She is seeking to capitalize on the collapse in support for Labour and gain a stronger mandate for upcoming divorce talks with the EU.
Anything is possible
Corbyn went on to deny a Conservative victory was a "foregone conclusion," pointing to his own unlikely election as Labour leader in 2015, after Labour's general election defeat.
Backed by many new members drawn by new membership rules that made it possible to purchase partial party membership at a reduced rate and vote in the leadership campaign, Corbyn overcame odds of 200-1 to move from his back-bench seat in the lower house of parliament to unexpected leadership. Many on the erstwhile Labour front-bench rapidly moved in the opposite direction, some demoted by Corbyn but most of them resigning.
A YouGov poll for "The Times" this week put Labour 24 points behind the Conservatives as May seeks to increase her majority of 17 in the 650-seat House of Commons ahead of Brexit negotiations. As they stand, the polls point to a drastically expanded Conservative majority.
One small glimmer of hope where Labour could feasibly gain some popular traction is May's refusal to engage in TV debates in the runup to the election.
Traditional antipathies
"Labour is the party that will put the interests of the majority first, while the Tories only really care about those who already have so much," Corbyn said. "That is why we will prove the establishment experts wrong and change the direction of this election. Because the British people know that they are the true wealth creators, held back by a system rigged for the wealth extractors," he went on.
Who's who in the UK snap election
UK Prime Minister May has called for a general election to take place on June 8, framing it as vote to counter the opposition's political road-blocking on Brexit. DW lays out the major players, parties and positions.
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May calls voters to the polls
On April 18, British Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early general election, bumping it up from 2020. British voters are set to cast their ballots for the House of Commons' 650 seats on June 8. Brexit will likely dominate the campaign agenda, with many perceiving the election as a vote on May's Brexit leadership.
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Reason to be happy
Though May had previously denied she would call for an early ballot, she argued snap elections were now necessary to counter the opposition's "political game-playing" on the UK's departure from the European Union (EU). For May, who took office after David Cameron resigned in the wake of the Brexit referendum, the vote marks her first attempt to secure a popular mandate.
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Conservatives stand to profit
With the opposition at its weakest position in years, the early election will likely prove a major boon to the Tories, allowing them to comfortably expand their current 17-seat majority in the House of Commons. Overall, the Conservatives have backed May's leadership as she steers the UK towards a hard Brexit, which includes removing the country from the European single market.
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Jeremy Corbyn on board
Embattled Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced his support of May's call for snap elections. He will attempt to position his party as an "effective alternative" to the Tories. Corbyn, a traditional labourist, will campaign on reversing government austerity, nationalizing railways, and investing in wages, all while steering clear of Brexit so as to not alienate the party's pro-leavers.
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Battles within the Labour party
Analysts predict few election gains for Labour, however, as Corbyn's Old Labour policies and refusal to bend to backbench opposition have split the party. Some Labour MPs challenged his support of snap election, and Labour MP Tom Blenkinsop said he would not stand for re-election due to "irreconcilable differences" with Corbyn.
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Farron seeks strong stance
Tim Farron, current leader of the Liberal Democrats said that, "only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority." After the party's coalition with the Conservatives under Cameron, the Lib Dems were smashed in 2015 national elections, receiving only nine seats. For Farron, the snap election will be a chance for him to significantly build up his party's representation in parliament.
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The "real opposition"
The pro-EU and economically liberal party also used May's announcement to call for a second Brexit referendum. In terms of the June elections, the Lib Dems could benefit from disaffected pro-EU Labour voters and those who seek a "soft Brexit" that would keep the UK in the European single market. According to the party, 1,000 people registered as Lib Dems just after May's announcement.
Trouble brewing in the north
Like the Lib Dems' Farron, first minister of the Scottish government and Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon clearly positioned herself against May, describing the Prime Minister's move as a "huge political miscalculation." May and Sturgeon have been a loggerheads over whether or not a second Scottish referendum can go forward before Brexit comes into effect.
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Support for independence?
The SNP already holds 54 of Scotland's allotted 59 MP seats, leaving little room for gain. However, the party is also unlikely to lose seats as their support has stayed steady. A majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU, meaning that Sturgeon could frame the election as both a call to Downing Street to consider a "soft Brexit" option and to consult the devolved nations in exit negotiations.
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UKIP slips into the shadows
Despite being a major player in the campaign to take the UK out of the EU, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) currently has just one seat in parliament. However, the Euroskeptic party still has a support base, and leader Paul Nuttall will seek to paint May as a political opportunist. Yet this will not likely translate into seats as many former UKIP voters have joined May's "hard Brexit" bandwagon.
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Bumper year of elections
Other parties currently holding Commons' seats include the Greens (one), Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (eight) and Sinn Fein (four), as well as Wales' Plaid Cymru (three). The June 8 election date places the UK's national election between that of France (April/May) and Germany (September), meaning parliamentary chambers on both sides of the channel may be in for a shake up.
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Corbyn also presented Labour's recent new policies, for example a 10-pound (11.90-euro, $12.84) minimum wage and a crackdown on corporate tax avoidance, saying this would "unlock opportunities for every single person in this country."
EU ambivalence
Corbyn ducked a question asking whether Labour planned to offer a second Brexit referendum, saying instead that he wanted continued economic ties with the EU.
"We haven't threatened to turn Britain into an offshore tax haven on the shores of Europe, undermining the European economy," Corbyn added, saying Labour wanted a "good process by which we continue to trade with Europe."
Corbyn himself voted to leave the EU's predecessor, the European Economic Community (EEC), in a 1975 referendum, but nominally supported 'Remain' last year. He has been criticized for not having a clear position on Brexit and neglecting to mention the issue on his numerous opportunities to do so in parliament each week.
Around 60 percent of Labour voters supported "Remain" in the referendum, especially in metropolitan areas like London, but many key battleground constituencies, especially in northern England, sided with "Leave."
A Labour Party spokesman later issued a statement saying that a second EU referendum would not be in the party's election manifesto.
Corbyn: Theresa May cannot be trusted
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Sturgeon: Labour victory 'pie in the sky'
North of the border in Scotland, formerly a Labour stronghold, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon ridiculed the prospect of a Labour victory on June 8.
"You only have to look at the polls to know that Jeremy Corbyn ain't going anywhere near No. 10 Downing Street, on his own or with the help of anybody else," she told the assembly at Holyrood. "The idea, in this election, that Labour is going to replace the Tories is frankly pie in the sky. The issue and the threat at this election is that due to Labour's complete unelectability, we face an unfettered, out-of-control Tory government."
A crucial component of Labour's collapse in the Commons since losing power in 2010 was its decimation in Scotland at the hands of Sturgeon's Scottish National Party. The SNP claimed 56 of 59 available Scottish seats in the 2015 UK elections, a gain of 50. Labour, meanwhile, went from holding 40 to just one. Polls also currently suggest the SNP can hope for more than 40 percent of the Scottish vote in June, which would signify a major blow to Labour's campaign.
