Observers are warning that Lebanon could become the latest battleground in the proxy fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Their long-running standoff threatens to further draw in global powers and regional players.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Hamzeh
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The resignation of Saad Hariri as Lebanon's prime minister has upended the country's political establishment and escalated a war of words between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In Riyadh, key government figures have accused the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah of destabilizing Lebanon. Gulf Affairs Minister Thamer al-Sabhan said Hezbollah had engaged in acts of "aggression" that amount to a "declaration of war against Saudi Arabia."
The back-and-forth between Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah could signal the further spreading of a feud between Saudi Arabia and Shiite-dominated Iran that has engulfed countries across the Middle East — including Yemen and Syria.
'Far more assertive'
Though Saudi Arabia has had limited success with its three-year military intervention against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, the anti-government forces it supports in Syria have repeatedly been thwarted as the regime of Bashar al-Assad continues to make gains with the help of Russia and Iran.
Though he prefaced his remarks by saying Saudi Arabia would have unclear motives for interfering, Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Center, said that, "as in Syria," any attempts to meddle in Lebanon's politics could backfire.
Sayigh told DW that Saudi Arabia could "end up triggering a crisis that actually produces opposite results in Lebanon," in large part because Iran would respond if its interests in the country were threatened.
"The Saudis have always had a low-key approach to foreign policy, and have sought friends and used soft power and so on," Sayigh said. "Now, for the last few years, increasingly they have shifted to what is known as hard power and a far more assertive foreign policy. The problem in the last two years is that this is being conducted by someone with very little experience and who is bold — and that's not always a bad thing — but the boldness has already cost a devastating war in Yemen. The consequences for Saudi Arabia are going to be long-term."
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
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Riyadh to Washington
Should Lebanon's political crisis turn violent, the resulting conflict could draw the United States and Israel into a deeper feud playing out across the Middle East. Israeli, Saudi and US officials view Iran as the premier "state sponsor of terrorism."
Saudi Arabia has been keen to represent Iran as the prime source of conflict in the Middle East, especially as US President Donald Trump has increasingly postured against the country.
For Israel, Hezbollah represents a security threat on its border. The United States has branded it a "terrorist group."
Sayigh said the coming weeks and months would be telling, especially should the US recommend further sanctions against Iran.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accuses Saudi Arabia of interfering in LebanonImage: picture-alliance/AP Photo/H. Ammar
Troubled history
Politically, Lebanon is divided along sectarian lines, with power distributed among the country's major religious groups.
Under a 1943 agreement following Lebanon's independence from France, the presidency is held by a Maronite Christian, the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament is a Shiite Muslim. Since an agreement to end the 15-year civil conflict in 1990, the confessional system has continued to work with relative success.
The former prime minister's father, Rafik Hariri, was assassinated in 2005. After a lengthy investigation, a UN-backed tribunal issued arrest warrants for four Hezbollah members, implicating the militants in the murder. The group denies any involvement.
