After a wild campaign that had many worried that a party better known for its anti-Israel statements than its policy proposals might win several dozen seats in Lithuania's parliament, a second round of voting confirmed the dominance of establishment parties in the Seimas, the parliament, on Sunday. The Nemunas Dawn party did, however, win at least 20 seats — more than enough to continue its verbal dart throwing at "elites that became disconnected from the people" from within the parliament. 

The jabs, however, are unlikely to have a significant influence on the decisions of the future Cabinet, which would be headed by the center-left Social Democrats (LSDP), who won 52 seats.

On Monday, LSDP head and Member of the European Parliament Vilija Blinkeviciute and the party's second-in-command, Seimas Deputy Gintautas Paluckas, went together to see President Gitanas Nauseda, the first step in forming a government.

The LSDP would likely be supported by the Union of Democrats "For Lithuania," led by former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, and the Farmers and Greens Union, headed by businessman and philanthropist Ramunas Karbauskis, which respectively won 14 seats and eight seats.

Second place went to the leaders of the current government coalition, the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), with 28 seats. Gabrielius Landsbergis, the current foreign minister, announced his resignation both as TS-LKD leader and as a member of parliament. He said he'd take a break from politics.

'Key elements' remain

Lithuanians do not expect radical changes from the future government. Domestic policy will likely be somewhat more left-wing than that of the outgoing center-right government. However, even that might not be dramatically different: On many issues Lithuania's left is more financially, economically and socially conservative than many of its West European colleagues. 

"Support for Ukraine, increased defense spending, attention to human rights violations in authoritarian countries will remain key elements of Lithuania's foreign policy," political scientist Teodoras Zukas said.  

The TS-LKD government, supported by two liberal parties, had given shelter, residence permits and protection to thousands of Russians who fled President Vladimir Putin's policies.

"Some cooling may occur towards the Russian emigration in Lithuania," said Andzej Puksto, a professor of political science at Vytautas Magnus University. "This does not mean it will be denied asylum and protection, but there is certain disillusionment with the Russian opposition's ability to influence political outcomes at home. I suspect the frequency and intensity of official contacts with it may decrease compared to the current government."

Enduring Taiwan policy

The outgoing government regularly lashed out at institutions whom officials considered at odds with Lithuania and the West, or who were deemed too soft on dictators, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres discovered after meeting with Putin at the recent BRICS summit. Zukas generally expects "more restraint" from the new foreign policy team, at least rhetorically — "after all, the Social Democrats promised voters a 'stable and pragmatic foreign policy.'"

This may primarily concern the chilling of relations with China after the current government gave its consent in 2021 to the opening of a de facto diplomatic mission of Taiwan in Vilnius. China's government downgraded diplomatic relations with Lithuania to the level of charge d'affaires and froze all ties with. The Social Democrats and their opposition-at-the-time allies called that a risky decision by the center-right government, and China did indeed attempt to retaliate by refusing to purchase goods produced in Lithuania. 

Puksto said the new government might try to normalize relations with China. But, he said, that would not mean cutting ties with Taiwan in order to do so. 

Lithuanian media speculate that Virginius Sinkevicius, a member of the European Parliament from the Democratic Union and former European commissioner for the environment, oceans and fisheries will be a strong candidate for foreign minister. 

The wild cards

With the established parties holding on to power, albeit flipping positions, all eyes are on the future antics of the populist Nemunas Dawn party.

Created a few months ago, Nemunas Dawn, which is named after Lithuania's main river, is headed by former Seimas deputy, Remigijus Zemaitaitis. During the campaign the party attracted a lot of attention for the harsh anti-Israel and strongly pro-Palestinian statements of its leader, a rare stance in Lithuania, where support for Israel is generally high.  

That may not be enough to shake up the establishment order, but the party is now positioned to make some noise within the walls of the Seimas. 

Edited by: Milan Gagnon