For several days now, videos have been posted on social media showing what is supposedly a threatening buildup of Egyptian military forces in the Sinai area near the border of Israel, Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

According to some Arabic-language media and several Israeli outlets, the change in Egypt's military posture in this area is a reaction to US President Donald Trump's suggestion that Palestinians in Gaza be moved into Jordan and Egypt's Sinai region while a "Gaza Riviera" is under construction.

Egypt, along with the US and Qatar, has been crucial in brokering the current ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Gaza-based militant group Hamas. After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of around 1,200 people, Israel launched a retaliatory military campaign in Gaza that has killed over 48,000 people. A fragile ceasefire is currently in effect in Gaza, so reconstruction is being discussed.

However both Jordan and Egypt have said they're opposed to any plan to take in millions of Palestinians. This would amount to an existential crisis for both countries, and the rest of the world could potentially consider such an expulsion ethnic cleansing.

Planning for war?

Is Egypt actually preparing to take up arms to prevent Israel from pushing Palestinians over the border, as those various reports seem to suggest?

That is nonsense, says Hossam el-Hamalawy, an Egyptian researcher and activist now living in Germany who writes a regular newsletter on Egyptian security and politics.

"The Egyptian army cannot send a single tank, even a single officer, into Sinai without prior Israeli permission," el-Hamalawy said. Prior coordination with what is known as the Multinational Force and Observers, or MFO, is also required, he noted.

The MFO is an international peacekeeping organization that Egypt, Israel and the US formed as part of the 1979 peace treaty Egypt and Israel signed. The three countries are the main funders of the MFO, and just under half of around 1,100 MFO soldiers stationed in Sinai are American.

In reply to a DW inquiry about Egyptian troop movements, the MFO said, "Because the MFO's findings are only provided to the two Treaty Parties, Egypt and Israel, we are unable to comment."

As evidence of Egypt's military buildup on the border, Israeli and Arab media outlets both pointed to one video (see below) captured in early February by civilians driving past around a dozen tanks near the border. 

It's hard to confirm precise numbers, but older press pictures show Egyptian tanks in similar areas in the Sinai over the past year.

The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, or SFHR, is a London-based advocacy organization whose team works in the Sinai region. They have noticed "some small changes [to Egypt's military profile]. But these have mostly been in central Sinai and involve infrastructure," Ahmed Salem, director of the organization, told DW.

Other than that, there haven't been any major changes near the border. Last spring, SFHR published shots of Egyptian tanks near the border.

Egypt's military deployments in this area "have been ongoing since before October 7 [2023] but have been accelerated since," explained Ahmed Aboudouh, a foreign affairs expert with the Middle East and North Africa program at British think-tank Chatham House. "I don't think they are offensive, but according to the Israeli reports, their permanent nature has spooked Israel's leaders."

It's unclear how many troops Egypt currently has in Sinai. But el-Hamalawy pointed out Egypt previously received permission from Israel to bring in a lot more to fight extremists in the Sinai area. In 2018, Egyptian forces in the Sinai doubled, going from 25,000 men in 41 battalions to 42,000 men in 88 battalions over the course of a year. Egypt also built more permanent bases in the Sinai area.

In 2021, Egypt and Israel agreed on Egypt being allowed further troops in Sinai, including near the border, Salem said. That was outside of the 1979 peace treaty.

And Egypt has also permitted Israel to conduct air strikes in the Sinai, el-Hamalawy noted. Israel eventually carried out around 100 of these.

Neither party really respects the security measures related to their 1979 peace treaty, Salem continued. The MFO regularly cites both countries for exceeding their permitted deployments. But Salem doesn't believe Egypt is preparing for war.

"That's a huge exaggeration that I believe is being used to put more pressure on Egypt," he told DW.

Fighting against Sinai extremists

The tanks may also be there "to balance Israel's belligerent and heavy deployments along the Philadelphi corridor," Chatham House's Aboudouh suggested.

The Philadelphi corridor is a small strip of land that runs 14 kilometers inside the Gaza Strip along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Previously, Egypt managed the Philadelphi corridor, which includes the Rafah crossing — the only entry and exit point into Gaza from Egypt. That arrangement was according to a 2005 agreement Egypt made with Israel.

But late last year, during its military campaign in Gaza, Israel took control of the corridor over Egyptian objections. The latter has always rejected any heavy Israeli military presence on its borders.

Diplomacy first

This war of words might provide helpful propaganda for both sides, observers argue. Reports of a military buildup in Sinai make Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi look like a strong leader, standing up for his country and the Palestinians in Gaza. In Israel, it's a way for politicians to put pressure on Egypt regarding the controversial "Gaza Riviera" plan, to criticize Egyptian presence in Sinai and to express concern about Egypt continuing to modernize and grow its military.

Despite all the angry talk and social media turmoil, experts believe both sides would prefer diplomacy to resolve whatever comes next.

"I think building a unified Arab front is the main goal now," Aboudouh told DW. "Whether that's through the scheduled meeting between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan in Riyadh [this week], or at the February 27 summit that they called for."

It's not an easy relationship, SFHR's Salem concedes. "But when it comes to tensions between two countries, there are a lot of steps, diplomatic steps, that can be taken before the army is deployed," he said. And that hasn't happened.

In fact, independent analyst el-Hamalawy told DW, "Right now, it's more like business as usual between Egypt and Israel." On Monday morning, an Arabic -language business newspaper reported that Egypt was trying to increase its gas imports from Israel by 58% by the middle of this year, he pointed out.

With additional reporting by Emad Hassan.