Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has spent much of his time in office insisting that Kuala Lumpur will not be forced to choose between the United States and China.

But two sets of comments last month have raised questions about how sustainable that position is as rivalry between the two superpowers increasingly spills into Southeast Asia.

"I see Taiwan as part of China, period," he said in an interview with news outlet Al Jazeera that aired on August 16.

Beijing considers democratically governed as Taiwan part of its territory. While Chinese leaders say they favor "peaceful reunification," they have never ruled out using force to bring the island under Beijing's control.

More controversially, Anwar appeared to accept Beijing's argument that force could be necessary.

"If one province decides to break away. Do we use force? I think I will, [to] protect the sanctity and unity of the nation," he said.

Regional concerns

The comments drew an enthusiastic response from Beijing, while Taiwan's Foreign Ministry accused Anwar of effectively legitimizing the use of force against the islandand warned that his "one-sided support for China could negatively impact Taiwanese businesses' confidence in investing in Malaysia," including in the country's strategically important semiconductor sector.

Two days after his comments on Taiwan aired, Anwar argued that Malaysia should strengthen its defenses in Sabah, citing the expansion of US-backed military facilities on the nearby Philippine island of Balabac.

The Philippines is upgrading facilities on Balabac, roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the Malaysian islands of Banggi and Balambangan.

Balabac was one of four additional locations added in 2023 to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which allows US forces to access designated Philippine military facilities, construct infrastructure and pre-position equipment.

Taken together, Anwar's comments raised concerns that Malaysia is growing warmer toward Beijing while becoming more suspicious of Washington's military footprint in the region.

A fundamental realignment?

Kuala Lumpur has also been one of the region's strongest critics of Israel's actions in Gaza. Anwar has repeatedly accused the United States and European governments of hypocrisy and double standards for championing democracy and international law while failing, in his view, to hold Israel sufficiently accountable.

But Malaysia experts warn against interpreting Anwar's rhetoric as evidence of a fundamental strategic realignment.

"Malaysia still maintains very good relations with the US and other Western countries," Ngeow Chow Bing, director of the Institute of China Studies at Universiti Malaya, told DW.

Those ties may sometimes be less visible than Anwar's increasingly warm public rhetoric towards Beijing, Bing said, but the underlying relationship remains strong.

"It is certainly true that the space for maintaining its traditional balancing act between China and the US is narrower than before, but that space remains, and Malaysia will continue to operate within it," Bing added.

A shift in tone, not strategy

Anwar's comments about the Philippine military buildup are much more about an ongoing territorial dispute between Kuala Lumpur and Manila, Chee Meng Tan, assistant professor at the University of Nottingham Malaysia, told DW.

The Philippines maintains a territorial claim over Sabah, which became part of Malaysia when the federation was formed in 1963. Malaysia rejects the claim and regards its sovereignty over the state as indisputable.

Those tensions resurface regularly, and in August Kuala Lumpur lodged a fresh objection with the United Nations over a Philippine submission about its continental shelf.

"A neighbor that claims part of your territory is building a military base 20 minutes offshore — any government would react," said Tan.

Anwar called for the strengthening of Malaysia's own defenses, not for Chinese help, "and he went out of his way to say relations with Manila remain good," Tan added.

Anwar also sought to lower the temperature over Taiwan after his initial comments. Speaking to Malaysian media after the event, he stressed that Kuala Lumpur wanted a peaceful resolution to cross-strait tensions and insisted that Malaysia's position had not changed.

Malaysia has formally followed a "One China" policy since establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1974.

Chinese state media quickly interpreted Anwar's remarks through Beijing's preferred terminology, with Xinhua reporting that the Malaysian leader had "reaffirmed the one-China principle," something Malaysian analysts said isn't true.

Malaysia has not abandoned its traditional position, but Anwar's rhetoric "has sometimes been more accommodating towards Beijing than necessary," Khoo Ying Hooi, associate professor of international relations at Universiti Malaya, told DW.

"That can create the perception of a tilt even when Malaysia's wider strategic behavior remains more hedged and pragmatic," she added.

Malaysia has less room to hedge

The prime minister faces mounting political pressure after his Pakatan Harapan coalition suffered three consecutive setbacks in state elections.

The defeats have intensified tensions within Anwar's broad governing alliance and speculation that he could call a snap general election.

Yet beyond Anwar's rhetoric and domestic political calculations lies a more structural problem for Malaysia.

Its longstanding strategy of hedging between the United States and China is becoming more difficult as Beijing's economic and military weight grows and Washington takes an increasingly transactional approach to foreign relations.

"Malaysia is not abandoning its traditional balancing strategy, but the space for ambiguity is narrowing," said Hooi.

Anwar is expected to visit China in late September, his first trip there in more than a year. He is reportedly due to attend the Global Digital Trade Expo in Hangzhou and hold talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang as Kuala Lumpur seeks to deepen economic ties with its largest trading partner.

But closer relations with Beijing do not remove Malaysia's dependence on Western markets, investment and technology, or its own differences with China.

Despite warm political ties, Kuala Lumpur continues to reject Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea that overlap with waters Malaysia considers its own.

In February, Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan reiterated that Malaysia would not recognize Chinese claims that conflict with its maritime boundaries in the South China Sea, while Anwar has recently insisted that Malaysian oil and gas exploration will continue in the waters despite objections from Beijing.

For Tan of the University of Nottingham, Malaysia's ability to continue balancing the two powers ultimately depends less on Anwar's rhetoric than on Malaysia remaining valuable to both.

"China wants friendly neighbors to keep trading with, and America needs Malaysian factories, where a big share of the world's chips is tested and packaged," said Tan.

"Neither gains from pushing Malaysia toward the other."

Edited by: Ole Tangen Jr