Russian mercenaries associated with the Wagner Group have suffered one of their heaviest losses in West Africa in Mali.  Several dozen fighters were apparently killed or captured by a coalition of rebel forces mostly made up of Tuareg separatist militants. 

Ukrainian intelligence services have in the meantime declared that they were involved in the deadly ambush, according to several media reports, among them the daily British newspaper, The Guardian. 

Andriy Yusov, the spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence known as GUR, was reported to have claimed on the Ukraine public broadcaster Suspilne that the GUR provided the Tuareg rebels with the "necessary information" to conduct a successful operation against the Russians.

Wagner confirms deadly events in Mali

On Monday, in a rare statement, the Wagner Group confirmed its battle defeat. The group said in a Telegram channel linked to the Wagner leadership that its fighters had fought alongside Malian soldiers in Tinzaouaten and had suffered heavy losses, including the death of their commander.

The coalition of Tuareg separatists and jihadi groups meanwhile claimed a "resplendent victory" against the Malian army and its Russian allies on July 28 following several days of "intense fighting" in Tinzaouaten in Mali's far north close to the border to Algeria. 

Jamaat Nosrat al-Islam wal-Mouslimin (GNIM), an Islamist militant group active in the Sahel that is linked to al-Qaeda, also claimed to have booby-trapped the convoy, killing 50 Russians and 10 Malians. 

Military government denies presence of Wagner in Mali

Russian mercenaries have been fighting since 2021 alongside the Malian army, which is battling various rebel movements, including Islamist terrorist militias as well as the Tuareg. Those groups have been waging insurgencies across the Sahel — both jointly and individually — region since 2012. 

According to a statement from the army's general of staff, "the FAMA [Malian Armed Forces] unit was surrounded by a coalition of Sahelian terrorist forces, and fierce fighting broke out before reinforcements arrived."

Mali's military says that the Russian troops present in the country are not from the Wagner mercenary group but rather work as training staff, helping local troops with equipment purchased from Russia.

But experts believe they are indeed members of Wagner. Me Mamadou Ismaila Konate, former justice minister of Mali, told DW that the Russians in captured or killed in battle "are attached to Wagner."

Mali has taken a real blow, Konate said, adding retaliation is sure to follow.  

He is concerned civilians will suffer in the military response.

"I fear that this response will not take care to distinguish between armed combatants or unarmed combatants and the general population," Konate told DW.

Growing insurgent threat

Konate is particularly worried about the flare up of Tuareg 

The Tuareg in particular are of concern, as they challenge the legitimacy of the Malian national authority, he explains.

Tuareg insurgent groups were only recently expelled from their traditional stronghold of Kidal by the Malian army, which forced them to move further east to Tinzaouaten, located on the border with Algeria. In an effort to drive the fighters further out, the army encountered resistance, resulting in this heavy loss of life.

Konate highlights that on the ground, it is difficult for the military to distinguish between hardliner insurgent groups and smaller factions, which do not have the means to engage in a war with the government.

And while smaller insurgent movements lack the funds to even buy weapons, big Tuareg groupings like the Alliance of Armed and Tuareg-dominated Separatist Groups (CSP-DPA) continues to grow.

"If you look at the intensity of the funds used on the ground, you can assume that they are not alone," commented Konate on the growing influence that outsiders also seem to be trying to have on such separatists, as demonstrated with Ukraine's reported involvement.

Proxy battles in Mali

In addition to receiving funding and support, groups like the CSP-DPA also benefit greatly from collecting the spoils of war in such scenarios: in the recent ambush, they claim to have confiscated many weapons belonging to the Malian armed forces and the Russian Wagner militia, which will now be used for further attacks. 

Meanwhile, it is also unclear where exactly all outside influences on insurgent groups in Mali exactly originate from, and whether most threats are not perhaps from somewhere that is closer to home: According to Konate, neighboring Algeria has traditionally always supported peace processes between Mali and Tuareg groups — until recently.

However, with growing disputes between the two states, which Konate says have led to the recall of respective ambassadors already, Malian authorities are also taking a closer look now at their own backyard.

This article was originally published in French.