Germany has experienced its hottest May and April since the late 1800s. The German Weather Service said the blazing temperatures could only be understood in relation to climate change.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Stähle
Advertisement
May and April of 2018 were the hottest in Germany since records began in 1881, the German Weather Service (DWD) said on Monday.
With an average temperature of 16 degrees Celsius, DWD said May 2018 was 3.9 degrees warmer than its benchmark of monthly average temperatures between 1961 and 1990 .
"In the last few years we have been experiencing a series of climate records that collectively can only be understood in the context of climate change," said DWD's Deputy President Paul Becker.
DWD said that not only had April and May been extremely hot months, but they had seen extreme weather events such as torrential rains and severe thunderstorms.
Becker said the growing number of these kinds of events "will require from all of us intensive adaptation measures and measures to counter climate change."
Victims of the brutal cold
01:51
This browser does not support the video element.
No low temperature records since 1956
DWD said the fact that two new temperature records had been set for two months in a row in Germany was a rare event that had only occurred once before in the past hundred years — in November and December 2015.
Climate change has resulted in new maximum records for rising average monthly temperatures occurring more and more in recent decades. From 2001-2010 there were 10 new monthly records.
In previous decades there were only two to four new maximum records per decade.
New minimum temperature records are extremely rare now, with the last one being recorded more than 60 years ago in February 1956.
Since satellites started recording weather data in the 1970s forecasting has taken a huge step forward. It isn't just about sun or rain any more. It's about giving people more time to prepare for extreme weather events.
Image: Reuters/NOAA
Seven days ahead
Weather forecasting has improved massively. 40 years ago meteorologists could only predict weather for the next two or three days. Today weather can be predicted reliably for seven days. But forecasters also give monthly and seasonal predictions. These can be tremendously important for agriculture. If a severe storm is predicted ahead of time, farmers can prepare.
Image: Getty Images/S. Keith
Models and mathematics
Weather is forecast with the help of supercomputers that predict the weather using complex mathematical models and current weather conditions. Some centers for weather prediction take account of up to 900 million global points. For the prediction, the world is split up into grids with grid points spaced 9 km apart.
Image: ECMWF
Pooling data across borders
In 1975 several European states decided to share their data to improve the forecast. They set up the “European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast” (ECMWF). Today the centre has 22 member states, 12 co-operating countries and some of the world's most modern supercomputers.
Image: ECMWF
Taking more elements into account
Roughly a year and a half ago the centre expanded its weather models. Before, they were based on atmospheric predictions. Now the forecasts take more elements into account, such as ocean and land data. This makes them more reliable. With the weather changing due to climate change, forecasts are changing too. Scientists still cannnot link climate change and weather change exactly.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/T. Katic
Life or death predictions
Scientists are sure that climate change intensifies extreme weather events. Heatwaves are even hotter, hurricanes are more intense. That means weather forecasting today is also about saving lives and protecting property. If the forecasts are more exact and data is available faster, people can prepare better for severe weather events.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/R. Kakade
Very hard to predict
Thunder and lightning are very hard to forecast and becoming more intense. It is impossible to predict exactly where lightning will strike. However, this might well improve. The ECMWF is working on predicting lightning within a 50 km range.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
More time to prepare
In general, weather forecasting will continue to improve. By 2025 reliable weather forecasts might cover 10 days instead of the seven that are possible today. That could well mean three extra days to prepare for storms and extreme weather.
