Germany: Merkel's bloc falls behind center-left SPD
August 24, 2021
Germany's center-left Social Democrats have nudged ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives in polling. It's the first time in 15 years the party has led — and comes just ahead of next month's general election.
Merkel is set to stand down after the election, but her successor Armin Laschet has not been polling wellImage: Andreas Gora/picture alliance
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The Social Democrats (SPD) emerged one percentage point ahead of Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats, according to an opinion poll published Tuesday.
Merkel is due to step down after the election, with her allies divided over the future of the conservative bloc.
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What do the figures show?
The poll by polling firm Forsa shows the SPD 2 percentage points up compared with a week ago — on 23% — while Merkel's CDU/CSU union slipped to 22%.
The Greens, until recently hot on the heels of the CDU/CSU in second place, slipped down a further point to 18% according to the survey conducted for German broadcasters RTL and NTV.
For other parties there was no change. The pro-market liberal Free Democrats (FPD) remained on 12%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 10%, and the far-left Left (Linke) party on 6%.
The polling for the CDU/CSU is the lowest since Forsa was established as a polling organization in 1984.
According to Forsa's calculations, a repetition of the figures on election day would give the SPD 195 seats out of 775 in Germany's lower house, the Bundestag.
That compares with 190 for the CDU/CSU and 152 for the Greens. The FDP would win 102 seats, the Linke 51, and the AfD 85.
While no two-party combination would be capable of mustering the 338 needed for a majority, four three-way combinations would be possible.
German coalition: Named after the colors of each party — the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP — which reflect those on the German flag.
Jamaica coalition: The CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP — whose respective colors reflect Jamaica's national flag. Efforts to build a coalition of these parties failed in the wake of the 2017 general election.
Traffic Light: Comprising the SPD, FDP and the Greens.
Left wing alliance: Made up of the SPD, the Greens, and the Left party.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
Since 2021 Germany has been governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. They started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting along the way.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
Black-red coalition
The Conservative's black combined with transformative red is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two big tent parties, was in power for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
'Pizza Connection' — precursor to Black and Green
When Bonn was still Germany's capital, conservative and Greens lawmakers started meeting informally in an Italian restaurant, in what became known as the 'Pizza Connection.' At the regional level, Baden-Württemburg's Greens-CDU coalition has governed since 2016 and Germany's most populous state of North-Rhine Westphalia has had a Black-Green government since 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats FDP), whose color is yellow did not come about at national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level, where Schleswig-Holstein had a "Jamaica" government until they went Black-Green in 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
The eastern German state of Saxony has been governed by a coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens, headed by the state's popular Premier Michael Kretschmer. He is hoping to be able to stay in power despite the rise of the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is campaigning on an anti-immigrant and anti-NATO agenda.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt has been governed by a coalition led by the CDU's popular Premier Rainer Haseloff. He has teamed up with the SPD and the FDP. The alliance of unlikely bedfellows was the only viable option to ward off the threat by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Violet and Black?
In graphics showing opinion polls, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is shown in violet. That may be fitting, as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it is doing so well in the eastern German states that it may well be asked to join coalition governments. Possibly led by the CDU (Black).
Image: Oliver Berg/dpa/picture alliance
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Why the apparent change?
The CDU/CSU alliance — comprising the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian CSU sister party — had enjoyed a strong lead going into the summer.
However, it has been on the back foot after a series of gaffes from Armin Laschet, the conservative candidate to succeed Merkel.
In July, he was pictured laughing in the background with local officials as German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gave a speech mourning victims of deadly flooding in western Germany.
Since then, the conservative alliance has tried in vain to halt a decline in support.
The Greens, despite gaining a bump in support earlier this year, have lost momentum since their chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock was caught up in a plagiarism scandal.
In a survey published on Friday, 41% of voters said they would prefer the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz to be the next chancellor, compared with only 16% for Laschet.
