Germany: Merkel's bloc falls behind center-left SPD
August 24, 2021
Germany's center-left Social Democrats have nudged ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives in polling. It's the first time in 15 years the party has led — and comes just ahead of next month's general election.
Merkel is set to stand down after the election, but her successor Armin Laschet has not been polling wellImage: Andreas Gora/picture alliance
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The Social Democrats (SPD) emerged one percentage point ahead of Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats, according to an opinion poll published Tuesday.
Merkel is due to step down after the election, with her allies divided over the future of the conservative bloc.
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What do the figures show?
The poll by polling firm Forsa shows the SPD 2 percentage points up compared with a week ago — on 23% — while Merkel's CDU/CSU union slipped to 22%.
The Greens, until recently hot on the heels of the CDU/CSU in second place, slipped down a further point to 18% according to the survey conducted for German broadcasters RTL and NTV.
For other parties there was no change. The pro-market liberal Free Democrats (FPD) remained on 12%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on 10%, and the far-left Left (Linke) party on 6%.
The polling for the CDU/CSU is the lowest since Forsa was established as a polling organization in 1984.
According to Forsa's calculations, a repetition of the figures on election day would give the SPD 195 seats out of 775 in Germany's lower house, the Bundestag.
That compares with 190 for the CDU/CSU and 152 for the Greens. The FDP would win 102 seats, the Linke 51, and the AfD 85.
While no two-party combination would be capable of mustering the 338 needed for a majority, four three-way combinations would be possible.
German coalition: Named after the colors of each party — the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP — which reflect those on the German flag.
Jamaica coalition: The CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP — whose respective colors reflect Jamaica's national flag. Efforts to build a coalition of these parties failed in the wake of the 2017 general election.
Traffic Light: Comprising the SPD, FDP and the Greens.
Left wing alliance: Made up of the SPD, the Greens, and the Left party.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
Black-red coalition
The Conservatives black combined with the traditional red of the political left is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two "big tent" parties, was in power first from 1966-69 and most recently for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: Odermann/IMAGO
Black and Green
The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has teamed up with the ecologist Greens in several German states cooperating smoothly at the regional level. On the national level the two parties see eye to eye especially on strong support for Ukraine. They disagree on nuclear and renewable energy, and many conservatives despise the Greens for their multicultural and "woke" positions.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
The center-right CDU/CSU could also team up with the Greens and the center-left SPD. This three-way coalition would be an option for a comfortable majority. It has been tested on a regional level: The eastern German state of Saxony was governed by such a coalition until 2024.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The neoliberal FDP has been a junior coalition partner to both the center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left SPD. A three-way coalition was forged on the state level, for example in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. While this combination was touted as a possibility ahead of the 2025 vote, the FDP failed to get into parliament, ruling it out from any coalition building.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
From 2021-2025 Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way combination of Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), has been tested at a regional level. But the FDP and Greens described their positions as irreconcilable following the collapse of the center-left government in November 2024. With the FDP's defeat in the 2025 election it will not be an option on the national level for the foreseeable future
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Blackberry Coalition
CDU (black), SPD (red) and BSW (violet). The new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance's (BSW) color violet, seems fitting as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it did so well in the eastern German states that it entered a coalition government with the SPD and CDU in the state of Thuringia.
Image: Colourbox
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Why the apparent change?
The CDU/CSU alliance — comprising the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian CSU sister party — had enjoyed a strong lead going into the summer.
However, it has been on the back foot after a series of gaffes from Armin Laschet, the conservative candidate to succeed Merkel.
In July, he was pictured laughing in the background with local officials as German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gave a speech mourning victims of deadly flooding in western Germany.
Since then, the conservative alliance has tried in vain to halt a decline in support.
The Greens, despite gaining a bump in support earlier this year, have lost momentum since their chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock was caught up in a plagiarism scandal.
In a survey published on Friday, 41% of voters said they would prefer the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz to be the next chancellor, compared with only 16% for Laschet.
