Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Canada next week after he was invited by his Canadian counterpart, Mark Carney, to attend the Group of Seven (G7) leaders' summit, from June 15 to 17, in Kananaskis, Alberta.

Carney extended the invitation to the Indian premier despite strained ties between the two countries.

India is not a member of the G7, which comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.

But New Delhi has been invited to the grouping's summits since 2019, reflecting India's growing geopolitical and economic significance.

"India is the fifth-largest economy in the world, the most populous country in the world and central to supply chains," Carney told media last week.

This will be Modi's first visit to Canada since 2015.

"As vibrant democracies bound by deep people-to-people ties, India and Canada will work together with renewed vigor, guided by mutual respect and shared interests. Look forward to our meeting at the summit," Modi said in a statement.

Chance to reset ties?

Political analysts in India have said Modi's visit will likely offer a chance to reset ties with Canada.

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated since Canada accused agents linked to the Indian government of carrying out the assassination of 45-year-old naturalized Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a longtime campaigner for the creation of a separate homeland for Sikhs carved out of India.

New Delhi has dismissed the allegations as "absurd" and "preposterous."

The row strained India-Canada ties so much that both sides expelled each other's diplomats in 2023 and 2024.

But there have been expectations of a thaw in ties since Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Canada's prime minister in March.

Meera Shankar, a former Indian envoy to the US, said Modi's trip will "hopefully mark the beginning of a reset in India's relations with Canada, which have plummeted in recent years over the Canadian allegations on the Nijjar case and India's belief that Canada indulges Sikh extremism directed against India."

She stressed that both sides have much to gain "if the relationship is stabilized, especially in a volatile world."

India and Canada share strong trade and people-to-people ties, with bilateral commerce amounting to around $9 billion in 2023 and Canadian pension funds cumulatively investing around $55 billion in India.

Canada is also home to nearly 2 million members of the Indian diaspora, who make up about 5% of the country's total population. The North American nation is also a top destination for Indian students pursuing higher education, alongside the US.

Unresolved issues and likely impact on ties

Despite both New Delhi and Ottawa seemingly making efforts to repair ties, the unsolved investigation into the assassination of Nijjar remains.

Furthermore, Canada is home to the world's largest Sikh diaspora community, with about 800,000 people.   

The community includes activists for "Khalistan," a fringe separatist movement seeking an independent state for the Sikh religious minority carved out of Indian territory.

New Delhi has demanded stricter action against the Khalistan movement, which is banned in India.

Canada, on the other hand, has accused India of carrying out a broad campaign targeting Sikh activists on Canadian soil, which Ottawa says has included intimidation, threats and violence.

Against this backdrop, Carney's invitation to Modi drew sharp criticism from fringe Canadian Sikh groups. Protests are expected to take place during Modi's visit.

Nevertheless, David Mckinnon, a former Canadian diplomat, believes Carney made the right decision by inviting Modi to the G7 summit.

"The politics of this decision in Canada, and particularly within the Liberal Party, were not easy, but Carney made the right choice. It's also notable that the leader of the opposition, Pierre Poilievre, quickly welcomed it," he told DW.

Mckinnon said, however, that it's too early to say that everything is back to normal between the two sides. 

"A big outstanding question is whether this trip leads to a mutually agreeable off-ramp from the allegations of Indian government interference in Canada, including involvement in the Nijjar murder, and India's allegations about Khalistani activities in Canada," he underlined.

Focusing on mutual interests

Last month, India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and his Canadian counterpart Anita Anand spoke to each other over phone and discussed ways to deepen the bilateral economic cooperation and advance shared priorities.

Ajay Bisaria, India's former high commissioner to Canada, said Modi's presence at the G7 summit offers a chance to stabilize the bilateral partnership, putting an economic and geopolitical focus on ties.

"It always presents a strategic opportunity for Modi to discuss the global commons like climate, trade, supply chains and the broader development agenda with the developed world," said Bisaria.

He also stressed that the gathering will also provide Modi the opportunity to call for a tougher posture toward Pakistan, pointing to recent clashes between the two nuclear-armed archrivals following a deadly attack on tourists in India-administered Kashmir.

New Delhi has blamed Pakistan for backing the attackers, a charge Islamabad denied.

The G7 gathering presents "a diplomatic opportunity to present India's current concerns to key world leaders, while China and Pakistan are out of the room," said Bisaria.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru