Things have now calmed down on the streets of Yangon, as well as in other towns across the country. Everything is back to normal, says Myanmar’s military government. There are indeed no more protests, but the atmosphere is still tense.

At the end of September, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets, protesting against a sudden increase in prices, and for freedom and democracy. At first it seemed as if the protests might mean the beginning of the end of the military regime. But the protests were brutally crushed by the junta.

Shots were fired in Yangon, Myanmar’s former capital. The demonstrators were dispersed using tear gas and clubs. There were many dead and injured. Thousands of people were arrested, including monks and many prominent members of the National League for Democracy and other opposition activists.

UN assesses situation

According to the UN, the number of people who lost their lives significantly exceeds the junta's official figures. In November, UN human rights envoy Paolo Sergio Pinheiro was allowed to visit Myanmar to get an idea of the humanitarian situation in the prisons. He said in his report that at least 31 people had died in the protests. But the military junta has only admitted so far that 16 died.

The brutal behaviour of the Burmese security forces towards the demonstrators was unnecessary and disproportionate, the UN human rights envoy also stated in his report. 4,000 people were arrested in September and October, he claimed and 500 to 1,000 may still be in prison. On top of this are the 1,500 political prisoners who were already in jail before the September protests.

Another UN official was recently expelled from Myanmar. Charles Petrie explains the critical situation in Myanmar: “The other element is that there is this growing impoverishment and the growing inability of people to meet their daily needs – which, you know, has the potential to be explosive.”

45 years of mismanagement

The military regime has mismanaged the country for the last 45 years. Myanmar is one of the world’s poorest countries, going by average per capita income. According to the International Monetary Fund, Myanmar's 2005 GDP amounted to 220 dollars per capita. Before the junta took power in 1962, the country was one of the richest South Asian countries. Today, the majority of the population is living below the poverty line and every third child is undernourished.

The question of whether economic sanctions will force the regime to its knees has divided the international community. The US and the EU have imposed trade sanctions and frozen the regime’s foreign bank accounts. But China, Myanmar’s most important political ally and trade partner, has vetoed a UN resolution as well as international sanctions. Beijing thinks the Myanmar situation is domestic. However, the West has not yet decided to turn away its attention.