Myanmar's military this week acknowledged the capture of a key military base by an armed resistance group over the weekend — a devastating blow to the junta-led regime.

The fall of the army's Northeast Command in Lashio to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is the biggest in a series of setbacks for Myanmar's military government this year.

It comes as an offensive by an alliance of powerful militias of ethnic minority groups is making broad gains in the civil war.

A humiliating loss?

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asian politics and security, described the loss of Lashio, the biggest town in Shan state, as "perhaps the most significant loss for the junta, if the opposition can hold it."

"It is a major trading town, and the largest city captured to date," he told DW, pointing out that it was particularly damaging as the military had recently reinforced the base with some 3,000 troops.

"And yet within a month, it fell, leading to the surrender of over 1,000 men. The commander of the Northeast Military region — one of 14 — was captured, along with his two brigadier-general deputies. They are the highest-ranked prisoners of war to date," he said.

Abuza noted that the loss was significant enough that even the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing had been forced to mention it. "And that's saying something."

A statement carried by the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar, an English-language daily, quoted Min as saying that the military "withdrew" from some positions close to China's border after "considering the security of current areas and the safety of people."

The military leader also noted that the alliance was receiving weapons, including drones and short-range missiles, from "foreign" sources, which he did not identify. "It is necessary to analyze the sources of monetary and technological power," he said.

Myanmar's military has 14 regional commands across the country, and the Northeast Command is the first to fall to armed resistance groups. That's why the loss of Lashio is "humiliating" for the junta, said Aung Thu Nyein, a political analyst in Myanmar.

Military under immense pressure

Opposition and ethnic armed groups have mounted serious challenges to the military's grip on power over the past year.

A three-pronged alliance of opposition forces, including the MNDAA, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Mandalay's People Defense Force (PDF), launched a large offensive in Shan state in October.

Named Operation 1027, it saw the capture of vast swaths of territory on the border with China, including dozens of townships and hundreds of junta-held posts.

Inspired by the alliance's gains on the battlefield, other ethnic armed groups, such as the Arakan Army in the west, have also increased the frequency and ferocity of their attacks, giving the military an increasingly hard time and preventing it from holding on to the territory under its control.

Why have China's attempts to secure peace failed?

Lashio is located around 70 miles (112 kilometers) south from the border with China. The MNDAA had been targeting the town since it launched its offensive in October.

China has tried several times to negotiate a cease-fire between the junta and armed groups in the area. But the attempts have failed to secure lasting peace.

"Since the operation began, China has heavily pressured the MNDAA and TNLA to stop fighting," said Ye Myo Hein, a Myanmar expert at the United States Institute of Peace.

"However, both groups deftly relieved this pressure by announcing a unilateral cease-fire, then successfully took control of Lashio and other towns in northern Shan state."

Even though China has significant leverage and influence over the resistance groups near its border, Ye said, Beijing "cannot fully control them."

"The armed actors continually seek to create room to maneuver toward their objectives despite China's pressure. And now that resistance groups control almost all areas along the China-Myanmar border, China has no choice but to engage with these groups as key actors in the future," he said.

Will the fighting spread to junta strongholds?

Myanmar has been in a state of political turmoil since the military toppled the democratically elected government in February 2021.

The coup sparked mass protests, which evolved into a major anti-junta uprising, particularly in regions dominated by ethnic minorities. 

Those opposing the military regime have formed alliances comprising ethnic groups and civilian-led defense forces.

The civil war is estimated to have claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians since 2021. Millions have been internally displaced and the country's economy lies in tatters.

According to Myanmar's National Unity Government, which was formed by a coalition of ousted democratically elected lawmakers who sought to establish a parallel or exile government, over 60% of the nation's territory was controlled by the resistance forces prior to the capture of Lashio.

Some speculate that the fighting will now escalate and spread as opposition groups target towns and cities that have long been considered the military's strongholds, such as Myawaddy and Mandalay.

Myawaddy, located along the Myanmar-Thailand border, is a key trading post. It has already witnessed intense fighting, and was captured briefly in April by the Karen National Union.

The same month, Myanmar's capital Naypyitaw came under an unprecedented attack after armed groups launched drone strikes and targeted military installations in the city.

Mandalay city, an economic hub and center of Burmese culture, lies just over 200 kilometers away from Lashio.

Political analyst Aung Thu Nyein said it would be hard for the armed groups to occupy Mandalay. "But any offensive targeting the city could be heavy blow to the junta — militarily, psychologically and economically."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru