Turkey's offensive against US-allied militias in the Afrin region of northern Syria is putting NATO in a difficult position. As tensions between the NATO allies escalate, analysts wonder how far Ankara is prepared to go.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Kilic
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NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller arrived in Ankara Monday on a long-planned visit that was unrelated to Turkey's current military campaign against a Kurdish enclave in the northwest Syrian region of Afrin. But her trip provoked heightened interest, given that NATO's two largest armies stand on opposite sides in the operation.
Ankara says it wants to clear the Syrian border enclave of Kurdish YPG fighters; it considers YPG units to be allies of the Kurdish insurgents that have fought against the Turkish state for decades. But the YPG has the backing of the United States, which sees the Kurdish militants as its main allies in Syria against the "Islamic State" (IS).
Gottemoeller was briefed by Turkish officials who assured her, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated publicly, that the Afrin offensive would be "brief." NATO officials in Brussels stressed Monday that Gottemoeller was not in Ankara because of the heightened tensions between Turkey and the US, nor would she be playing any kind of mediation role in the dispute.
The NATO deputy chief made no mention of the issue consuming Turkish media in her sole tweet about her Monday engagements in Ankara, which showed her at the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey.
But many analysts say the standoff in Afrin is hotter than it looks. The influential Soufan Group, a US-based security intelligence strategy firm, said in its latest brief that the Turkish action is an example of the new coalition between Turkey, Russia and Iran, which are "united in a desire to block US interests in the country." The US will have to back down or ratchet up the conflict with its NATO ally Ankara, the Soufan Group suggests.
Pierini: Erdogan end goals likely election related
Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, knows Turkey well, having served as the European Union's ambassador there from 2006 to 2011. He told DW the Turkish president appears to be sacrificing what little goodwill there may be remaining in Europe for his own political aims.
"Essentially it's putting Turkey at odds with NATO in terms of how allies operate between themselves," he said. "That's the main effect. But I guess the risk is perfectly understood in Ankara and it's the price to pay to control the political scene."
Flexing military muscle in the assault on the Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria will likely go down well among Turks, Pierini explained. "It helps immensely in ramping up the nationalist narrative at home," he said. Erdogan has created a "huge operation to crush a somewhat small threat" which likely could have been resolved diplomatically, he added. But, sounding a note of warning, Pierini said the problem is that "nobody knows when and where it will end."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reviews his troops in Kutahya, Turkey.Image: Reuters/K. Ozer/Presidential Palace
Erdogan's NATO challenge
On the diplomatic front, Erdogan has not yet moved beyond calls he made last week for NATO to criticize US support for the Kurdish YPG forces in Syria. He has not instructed his diplomats to reiterate that demand at alliance headquarters, and NATO sources say Turkey has not initiated any briefings on its military action in northern Syria. In New York, the United Nations Security Council on Monday refrained from condemning the offensive or calling for its end. In Brussels, meanwhile, the issue has not been added as a formal agenda item for Wednesday's weekly North Atlantic Council meeting.
Who's fighting in the Syria conflict?
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
Image: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/L. Pitarakis
The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Tass/M. Metzel
The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/A.Brandon
The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
Image: Reuters
The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
Image: Getty Images/A. Sik
The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
