Their glimpse into the future is bleak. "Who or what can save peace?" ask leading German peace and conflict researchers in their 2025 Peace Report. Wars are being waged in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan, over 122 million people have been displaced, and there are many other violent conflicts taking place around the world.

Every year since 1987, scientists from four research institutes have published an analysis of international conflicts and developed recommendations for policymakers. Rarely has the Peace Report expressed as much pessimism as it does this year.

"In recent years, our analysis has focused on Russia's attack on Ukraine and Russia's deliberate destruction of the European system of peace and security," said Christopher Daase from the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research at the presentation of the report in Berlin. Since then, he said, the security situation has continued to deteriorate. "The US has become another source of uncertainty."

Sharp criticism of Donald Trump

One main focus of this year's report is on the political changes underway in the US, and their analysis is harsh. US President Donald Trump and "his MAGA movement" have succeeded "in a very short time and without much resistance" in transforming the world's oldest democracy into an authoritarian regime, the researchers write.

What's more, the report continues, the Trump administration is also seeking to "destroy liberal institutions and accomplishments" at the international level. "Authoritarian rulers and dictators are being courted, and far-right populist movements in liberal democracies are being supported."

Conflict researcher Daase thinks there's a risk that "authoritarianism could become contagious." Even in Europe, there are already some worrying trends, like the undermining of international jurisdiction, attacks on academic freedom, and moves to limit the independence of social actors like churches.

Is NATO dead?

According to the report, the transatlantic partnership between the US and Europe "as we knew it" has "come to an end." Researchers believe that this is also true for military cooperation. "The credibility of NATO's mutual defense commitment has been shaken, and closer ties between the US and Russia threaten to come at the expense not only of Ukraine, but also of European interests."

This poses a direct threat to Germany and Europe. "The problem is that everything depends on NATO at the moment, so no one really wants to talk about the end of NATO even though its core values have long since vanished," said Daase on the question of whether NATO is dead. "We are working to transcend NATO," he added, meaning that we should continue to work with NATO as long as possible while simultaneously strengthening European capabilities.

Europeans must pull together

The Peace Report recommends that the German government pursue a "transparent, step-by-step plan for the expansion and integration of European defense structures." However, the report states, the European Union is a long way from achieving this at present. "What we are currently seeing in the EU is not a strengthening of European defense capabilities within the political framework of the European Union, but rather a strengthening of the national defense capabilities of EU member states," says Ursula Schröder from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH).

It furthermore says, security should not be understood only in terms of military power. A security framework also includes "arms control, confidence-building measures, and diplomacy," emphasized Conrad Schetter from the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (bicc). An effective development policy is also important. The strengthened arms policy should not become a "free pass for arms exports around the world."

No more arms deliveries to Israel

In their report, the researchers express particular alarm about the global erosion of international law. They observe an increasing trend toward the "dehumanization of warfare," in which, among other things, the protection of civilians is being systematically disregarded, hospitals and schools are becoming direct targets of military strikes, and humanitarian aid is being blocked or exploited for political purposes. This is especially evident in Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and in the Israel-Gaza war.

Researchers are horrified by the situation in Gaza, where the war has already claimed more than 53,000 lives and largely destroyed the area. Peace researchers are calling for an "urgent" halt to all deliveries of weapons that could be used in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Israel has "flagrantly" violated international humanitarian law and exceeded the limits of "legitimate self-defense."

Do not invite Netanyahu to Germany

The report calls on the German government to respect international jurisdiction. With this, the researchers are referring to a comment made by CDU leader Friedrich Merz before he became chancellor. After his election victory, Merz announced his intention to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Germany, even though the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for him.

Merz suggested that he could provide Netanyahu with the "means and ways" to enable him to "visit Germany and leave again without being arrested." The Peace Report states: "International law takes precedence over reasons of state." This would rule out the "possibility a state visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Germany until further notice."

In addition, the researchers call on Germany to work toward recognition of a Palestinian state in the medium-term. They argue that a lasting solution to the Palestinian conflict would "in no way restrict Israel's right to a Jewish state with secure borders."

This article was originally written in German.

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