Even before the NATO summit kicks off in The Hague on Tuesday, one thing is clear: The alliance's ambitious goals will place heavy demands on Germany.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced that he will provide all the necessary financial resources to make the Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe.

But NATO's new goals are ambitious: The plan is for the 32 member states to spend 5% of their economic output on defense. Until now, it has been 2% — which is what Germany currently spends on defense.

It was US President Donald Trump who first proposed the target of 5%. He threatened Europe's NATO allies, saying that if they continued paying as little as they had so far, the United States would refuse to provide assistance. In 2024, the US alone covered two-thirds of the defense spending of all NATO member states.

Many European countries met Trump's demand with skepticism, and many said 5% was far too high. In 2024, some countries were far from even meeting the 2% target. A few days before the summit, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced that the entire NATO alliance would meet the 2% target by 2025.

But this is only the first step toward even higher spending. On Sunday, NATO allies, including Germany, reached a deal to set the target to 5% of defense spending by 2035.

While the details are to be officially announced at the NATO summit, Rutte has previously proposed reaching the 5% target by boosting NATO's core defense spending goal from 2% to 3.5% of GDP and spending an extra 1.5% on related items like cybersecurity and military infrastructure.

Half of the federal budget for defense?

That is a gigantic sum for Germany and its strong economy, estimated at €225 billion ($258 billion) per year. Last year, the total federal budget was €476 billion.

Chancellor Merz has emphasized that the continued advancement of military capabilities is the top priority.

However, not everyone in his coalition government is convinced.

"We think it's irrational to set a percentage of GDP for military spending," wrote a group of center-left SPD politicians in their manifesto on peacekeeping in Europe. They said there was, "no security policy justification" for this.

Parts of the opposition have also sharply criticized the idea.

In view of the threat posed by Russia, Bundeswehr experts see good reasons to invest more money in the armed forces, which have been neglected for decades.

"It's not about pleasing the Americans nor is it about lining the pockets of the arms industry," security expert Aylin Matle from the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW. "It's in Germany's national interest to be capable of defending itself."

She said the federal government has a responsibility to explain why this is necessary. Nevertheless, she agreed that 5% of economic output is "an extremely high amount."

What does this mean for the Bundeswehr?

In addition to finances, the NATO summit will also focus on military capabilities. Additional troops are needed in Europe, both as a show of strength to Russia and in response to Trump's announcement that he intends to reduce the US presence in Europe.

What does this mean for the German armed forces? Between 50,000 and 60,000 additional soldiers are needed, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius explained in Brussels, when NATO defense ministers first set the alliance's new capability targets at their meeting in early June.

While the details are confidential, Pistorius has announced plans to form and fully equip large, new military units. "This will be a major undertaking," he said. Under discussion are five to seven new brigades, each with 5,000 soldiers, tanks, artillery and associated logistics.

Compulsory military service?

How the German army plans to recruit tens of thousands of additional career soldiers in the coming years remains unclear for the time being. It currently has a force of around 182,000 soldiers and is actively recruiting new personnel.

"We currently have good personnel numbers, good recruitment figures and good applicant numbers. That is encouraging," said a Defense Ministry spokesperson.

In recent years, the number of soldiers has declined despite all recruitment efforts. Conscription, which was suspended in Germany in 2011, could be an effective means of recruiting personnel. But there are no plans to reinstate it for the time being, as agreed upon by the government coalition partners. 

"We are creating a new, attractive military service that will initially be based on voluntary enlistment," it says in the coalition agreement. The word "conscription" does not appear in it.

In view of NATO's increased requirements, there are growing calls within the conservative coalition partners, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), to start preparing for the reintroduction of compulsory military service.

But Merz is holding back. For the time being, the agreement in the coalition contract will remain in place. "We will have to look closely at whether attractiveness programs and voluntary service are sufficient. If voluntary service is not sufficient, then we will have to discuss additional steps very soon," it says.

In this regard, Merz and his defense minister, Pistorius, are on the same page. Pistorius has stressed that, "conscription is of no use to us at present because we lack enough barracks and training facilities. Therefore, these capacities must be expanded. Until then, voluntary service will remain in place."

Europe faces possible withdrawal of US troops

Security expert Matle is skeptical that a voluntary military service plan could really work in the long-term.

"It'll be scrapped pretty quickly," she predicted — especially since the pressure on Germany could grow again if the US does really pull its troops out of Europe.

The Trump administration has already announced its intentions to do just that. More detailed information on this is not expected until after the NATO summit.

Matle suspects that the cards could then be reshuffled once again.

"The Europeans, including Germany, would then be faced with the question of how to make up for this," she said.

But she believes that even if this means that more troops will be needed in Europe, it's "not very likely that Germany will be able to increase its troop numbers significantly in the next few years."

This article was originally written in German.

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