How can the leaders of Mozambique, Swaziland and Zambia contribute to a political solution in Zimbabwe? Is there anything they can do?

Christian von Soest: They could put more pressure on President Robert Mugabe and his party ZANU-PF in an effort to bring them back to the Global Political Agreement. That was also the main goal of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, I think, when he suspended his cooperation with ZANU-PF in the unity government.

Do Zimbabwe's neighbors have more than mere diplomatic tools?

Their tools are rather limited. Mugabe knows very well that the Southern Africa Development Community ( SADC) pressured Tsvangirai into this Global Political Agreement between his own Movement of Democratic Change (MDC) and ZANU-PF. So Mugabe may not expect too much pressure himself from the SADC, nor from the main regional power: South African President Jacob Zuma was very vocal about Zimbabwe before he was elected, but has turned rather quiet since.

It sounds a bit as if this summit won't make a big difference at all.

At the moment it is hard to see a new approach. It's hard to tell, but I'm rather sceptic, whether there will be any progress. On the other hand Tsvangirai's move to suspend the cooperation with ZANU-PF is a reason for the SADC to talk to Mugabe and try to make him return to the main agreement.

Just last week President Mugabe refused UN torture expert Manfred Nowak entry to the country because Nowak had been invited officially by Prime Minister Tsvangirai. Does that show who really is in power in Zimbabwe?

It does indeed. But there is more. It shows that Mugabe and his ZANU-PF still control the security forces - police, intelligence, the army. This incident shows that Mugabe is still in command. It's not the first time something like this happened. A year ago, a group of elder statesmen, amongst them former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and former US President Jimmy Carter, were refused entry into Zimbabwe. So this has happened before. But looking at the economic policy, despite the fact that Mugabe reappointed the Central Bank governor, Gideon Gono, there is more influence from the MDC.

Is it known how Mugabe and Tsvangirai communicate with one another? Don't they inform each other, e.g. about whom they invite to visit the country?

When Morgan Tsvangirai was in Germany recently, we asked him that question - how is cooperation on a day-to-day basis. He said it was working quite well. And I read that both Mugabe and Tsvangirai met a couple of days ago for some hours, but that was the first time in weeks that they had a personal encounter. So I think communication between both is quite limited and dominated by mistrust.

Does that also explain Morgan Tsvangirai's partial withdrawal from the unity government last month?

Tsvangirai realises that Mugabe is trying to outsmart him and that the president wants to really govern the country. With his move Tsvangirai wants to draw the attention of the SADC and western countries and to express the need of pressure and intervention from the outside in order to make ZANU-PF and Mugabe respect the Global Political Agreement.

At the same time the SADC doesn't seem to be happy with Tsvangirai's move. They even urged him to stop his boycott.

There is a pattern behind that. When it was led by South Africa, the SADC also tried to push Tsvangirai into the Global Political Agreement. It is a fact that Mugabe still has a very strong stand in the SADC, while there is no strong support from the SADC for the MDC. So apart from Botswana which has openly criticized Mugabe they have a rather ambivalent position.

SADC Chairman, Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Kabila, is trying to mediate in Zimbabwe as well. How big is his influence on Mugabe and Tsvangirai? Kabila himself says he is optimistic.

Well, I'm not so optimistic. I cannot imagine how Kabila as a relatively new leader could tell Mugabe, one of the liberation heroes in Southern Africa, what to do. Mugabe is the oldest president in Southern Africa. Also between former South African President Mbeki as SADC chairman and Mugabe there was this hierarchy. It isn't any different with Kabila. In Africa Mugabe is still respected and hard to approach or even be criticised. Neither can I see the SADC change its position on Zimbabwe at the moment. That may happen one day, but at the moment I can't see any signs indicating progress.

At the same time the political deadlock is a barrier for economic recovery, Zimbabwe's most pressing problem.

Yes - and one must also recognize that there has been some progress, like the introduction of the US dollar as the de facto currency. Civil servants are being paid now. Inflation has been reduced. It is a fact though that these small achievements are now at risk. The key really is cooperation within the unity government.

Could it be that the political deadlock remains until the next elections?

Everything is possible, but I understand from some MDC representatives that if there is no solution within the next couple of weeks or months, that they want new elections. I really cannot imagine how that should work at the moment. The solution from my point of view must come from somewhere else, and the SADC is the only key player I can see around. They must put more pressure on Mugabe, because it looks as if his ZANU-PF is not prepared to share power, and as if the MDC and Tsvangirai aren't strong enough to force them to do so. Pressure from outside could make the difference.

Christian von Soest is a Southern Africa expert with the German Institute of Global and Area Studies in Hamburg.

Author: Patrick Vanhulle
Editor: Rob Mudge