The EU is expected to commit to going carbon neutral. But what will net-zero emissions mean in practice? What are negative emissions, and why do we need them? DW unpicks the jargon.
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With the Paris Agreement in 2015, nearly 200 nations submitted plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Because it was clear, however, that these measures would not be nearly enough to meet the Paris goals, the agreement stipulated that states would submit commitments to more radical cuts five years later.
In the intervening years, storms, floods, drought and forest fires have made climate change a terrifying reality for increasing numbers of people. And last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned of much worse to come if we exceed 1.5 degrees of warming.
To meet this goal, the IPCC said we must cut emissions to net-zero by 2050. Last November, the European Commission published a "strategic vision" to get there, which it's hoped the European Union will adopt at a summit in Brussels on June 20.
Net-zero means a radical change across the entire economy, doing away with fossil fuels and other sources of emissions wherever possible. For the rest, every ton of CO2 we do emit must be matched by a ton that we remove from the atmosphere.
So far, experts say we've done the easy bit: Renewable electricity generated has plummeted in price and is already overtaking fossil fuels in some countries. But then things get more complicated, because power that comes and goes with the weather needs to be backed up with something more constant like biofuels — or nuclear, which the EU strategy expects to generate 15% of our power at net-zero.
We will probably also need intelligent grid systems and ways to store electricity, such as giant battery plants. This technology isn't all there yet, but the power sector is still seen as relatively low-hanging fruit.
Harder to decarbonize, but to some degree still possible — with massive deployment of heat pumps and by converting renwable power to gas — are heating, shipping and industrial processes. But then there are planes and cows. Renewable-powered flying isn't on the cards yet, and our appetite for beef implies climate-killer methane.
Veggie discs and bloody beets: Future of meat
Demand for meat-free foods is up — 23% in the US last year alone, according to The Good Food Institute. But can plant-based alternatives replace classic burgers and sausages, and are they really better for the climate?
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/R. Soderlin
Big appetite
With climate concerns growing, many people are trying to reduce their environmental impact. Increasingly, they're turning to plant-based meats — and investors are taking notice. When Beyond Meat debuted on Wall Street in early May, share prices more than doubled the first day. "Investors recognize … a huge business opportunity," Bruce Friedrich, director of the Good Food Institute, told AFP.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/ZUMAPRESS
Spot the difference
Backed by Microsoft founder Bill Gates and stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, meat alternatives including Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger, seen here at left, use new food technology and ingredients like peas, fava beans and soy. Unlike earlier veggie burgers, these meatless patties are said to taste, look, smell and even "bleed" like real meat (the secret is beet juice). They can also be healthier.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/R. Drew
Good for the planet
But eating less meat isn't just a healthy decision. A 2018 WWF report said cutting animal products from diets would be a "relatively easy and cheap way" to fight climate change. A study by the University of Michigan found the Beyond Burger generates 90% less greenhouse gas emissions, requires 46% less energy to produce and has far less of an impact on water scarcity and land use than a beef patty.
Image: picture-alliance/Arco Images GmbH
Crowded market
Beyond Meat is already sold in thousands of US supermarkets and restaurants, and major brands are also looking for a piece of the action. Nestle launched its take on the beef patty in Europe in April, and Unilever took over Dutch plant-based meat producer The Vegetarian Butcher in late 2018. Burger King is rolling out a Beyond Meat option US-wide, and McDonald's is testing its own vegan burger.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Photoshot/R. Levine
Not all positive
Industrialized soy crops have been flagged as a contributing factor to widespread deforestation. As Brussels-based environment group Fern points out, more than 1 million square kilometers of land are used to grow soy, almost three times the size of Germany. Only a very small percentag of this, however, is used in meat alternatives. Most goes to animal feed.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP Photo/V. R. Caivano
Health food?
There are also nutritional concerns about these highly processed foods. Leading brands can have more than double the saturated fat and as much as seven times the amount of sodium as a lean beef burger. And environmental groups are worried about Impossible Burger's inclusion of GMO yeast, which adds a meaty flavor. Excessive consumption has been linked to cancer — but that goes for real meats too.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot/R.B. Levine
Today's special: Quorn tubes
In Europe, meat alternatives may soon have to be sold as "discs," "tubes" and "slabs" as opposed to burgers, sausages and steaks. The EU Parliament's agriculture committee has backed a move to ban producers of vegetarian food from using terms that usually describe meat. The full parliament is yet to vote on the measure however.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
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What are negative emissions?
That's where negative emissions come in. To meet the net-zero target, we will literally have to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere. The obvious way is with trees and plants, which do it anyway.
That means turning over vast areas of land to forest and wetlands, as well as looking at other natural forms of carbon sequestration. One idea is bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): Energy crops, such as maize, absorb carbon as they grow. We then burn them (generating energy we can use), capturing the carbon they emit, so it can be buried or recycled rather than going back into the atmosphere. But this would require so much agricultural land it could threaten food security.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology hasn't progressed much beyond the pilot-project stage, and has mostly been used with fossil fuel power plants or to capture industrial emissions.
And then there is direct air capture (DACCS), which splits CO2 from the air around us. But it's in even earlier stages of development than CCS.
What about carbon offsetting?
Leaving carbon capture aside, there is another way to reach the big zero: carbon credits. Rather than a country offsetting emissions it can't — or won't — get rid of against carbon sequestered on its own soil, offsetting schemes allow it to pay for things such as tree-planting or forest conservation abroad.
But the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's REDD+ offset scheme has been criticized for lacking "environmental integrity" and violating indigenous land rights. And it obviously doesn't work if every country wants to emit more than their share. Ultimately, offsetting means some countries will have a negative balance — absorbing more carbon than they emit.
Sinking islands battle tides of climate change
The IPCC has warned that the impact of climate change will be felt around the world, including in some of the world's low-lying island nations and coastal regions.
Image: AFP/Getty Images
Paradise lost
Small island nations around the world are already feeling the impact of rising sea levels. And probably none more so than the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, which is considered the lowest-elevation country on the planet. The average elevation of its 26 atolls is just 1.5 meters (5 feet) above sea level - so it wouldn't take much for the country to be rendered completely uninhabitable.
Image: picture alliance/chromorange
Underwater property
Rising waters have already caused some islanders to flee their homes for higher ground. On the Kiribati islands in the Pacific, some villages have been completely flooded. Local farmers also have to worry about encroachment of saltwater on their crops. The ever-approaching sea means less surface area for agriculture, and a greater need to transport food from afar.
Image: John Corcoran
Temporary escape
Around 113,000 people call the Kiribati islands home. Locals who've been displaced often end up on the main island of South Tarawa, which has a sea wall to protect low-lying properties on the shore from rising waters - but that's no permanent solution.
Image: picture-alliance/AP
Keeping the ocean at bay
The Dutch are famous for their efforts to fend off the sea - they built their first dikes to protect land from flooding more than 1,000 years ago. Today, a sophisticated system of dams and dikes allows two-thirds of the population live below sea level. Nevertheless, rising ocean levels are still a concern in the Netherlands, where there are future plans to fortify levees and build surge barriers.
Image: picture-alliance/Ton Koene
Sinking world heritage
Venice in northeastern Italy is no stranger to flooding - and according to experts, the iconic city will continue to sink. The Italian government has invested 9.6 billion euros ($7 billion) in the "Moses" water barrier project, designed to protect the city - a UNESCO World Heritage site - from rising oceans and high tides. The barriers are expected to be completed by 2016.
Image: AP
Crisis in the Caribbean
Many small islands in far-flung corners of the ocean don't have the money to fund large-scale climate change mitigation. And often, they're not just facing rising seas - they're also under threat from increasingly frequent cyclones and hurricanes. In the Caribbean islands of St. Lucia and Dominica, frequent storms wreak havoc on local agriculture, including bananas and avocados.
Image: picture-alliance/Robert Harding World Imagery
More severe storms
The devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines last November is a clear example of how the unpredictability of climate change can make weather events more severe for islands. Many homes in the typhoon’s path weren’t built to withstand typhoons, which previously tended to strike the north of the country. More than 6,200 people were killed.
Image: DW/T.Kruchem
Paying for prosperity
Some argue that poorer, less-developed countries are now suffering as a consequence of Western industrialization. At the recent climate conference in Warsaw, Philippines Commissioner Yeb Saño made a passionate plea for action, saying: "What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness."
Image: DW/ A. Rönsberg
Floating in the floodwaters
Although Bangladesh is on the mainland of Asia, it faces a huge risk from climate change due to its low-lying geography and population density. A mere 1-meter (3-foot) rise in sea level would cause half the country to be under water. Communities have started adapting to increased flooding by using floating agricultural technology to grow their crops.
Image: dapd
A new brand of refugee
There are fears sea level rises could eventually displace entire populations, creating hoards of climate change refugees. One idea floated by President Anote Tong of Kiribati some years ago was the possibility of building artificial islands for displaced locals to live on. Dubai - with its artificial island projects, like the one pictured here - may be able to help by sharing its experience.
Image: AFP/Getty Images
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How much traction does net-zero have in EU states?
In Europe, Denmark and Norway have enshrined net-zero by 2050 in law, while Sweden's climate legislation commits it to meeting the target by 2045. Still, all three Nordic countries either allow or don't explicitly rule out international carbon offsetting to reach the goal. Countries including France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands are debating similar steps.
The target year of 2050 is a negotiation between the necessary and the possible. The IPCC says if we cut global emissions to net-zero, we can still keep warming below 1.5 degrees. If we end up with net-zero by 2070, we can still hope for no more than 2 degrees.
Environmentalists say Europe, which is responsible for a disproportionate share of the CO2 that's been warming the planet since the industrial revolution began, must do better. Climate Action Network Europe, made up of 160 environmental and development organizations is calling for a 2040 deadline.
The European Commission's vision says the 2050 goal will make the EU "one of the first to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and lead the way the worldwide," implying that other countries will be less ambitious, and therefore that the IPCC's global net-zero target will be missed.
So, we still have a few decades then?
A zero-carbon economy won't be built in a day. The deadline is just over 30 years away. By then, our streets must be cleared of all combustion-engines. The Climate Change Commission advising the UK government says no new petrol and diesel cars should be sold from 2035 at the absolute latest. Meanwhile, several EU countries have new fossil-fueled power plants, which have an average lifespan of 50 years, either in planning or under construction right now.
Most of what net zero requires is already technically possible. But the longer we take to change our systems and behavior, the heavier we will rely on the more dubious business of extracting carbon from the atmosphere.
Can CO2 be stored?
02:18
Are there more important targets to shoot for?
Committing to net-zero makes it clear that cutting emissions isn't enough. It means there's no point in building natural gas infrastructure, for example, even if it would save a lot of emissions from coal. But talking about 2050 might give the impression we can leave the toughest jobs for last, betting on technologies that haven't been invented yet and future generations being able to stomach even more drastic change than we're facing now.
Scientists say in terms of action, countries have to focus on targets for 2030, which under the Paris Agreement have to be made tougher and resubmitted by 2020. So far, Europe isn't even on track to reach the original goals it set back in 2015.
Student climate strikes go global
In some 2,000 demonstrations in 123 countries, more than 1 million students marched through the streets from the South Pacific to the edge of the Arctic Circle. Their aim: to push world leaders to act on climate change.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/R. Remiorz
'If you don't act like adults, we will'
Thousands of students walked out of class in Sydney, kicking off global protests on Friday. They got the attention they wanted. Some Australian politicians hit back with criticism. "For action on issues that they think is important, they should do that after school or on weekends," said Education Minister Dan Tehan.
Image: AFP/Getty Images/S. Khan
Students bring grown-ups into line
Protesters in New Zealand invited adults to join the march. "If we go on strike on a school day, then they'll notice and they might want to do something," said 14-year-old student Inese, who didn't want to give her full name. And her prime minister is listening. Jacinda Ardern supports the strikes and has pledged NZ$100 million (€60 million/$68 million) to cut greenhouse gases.
Image: Getty Images/H. Hopkins
Truth to power
The movement has snowballed since 16-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg began skipping school to protest in front of parliament last August. On March 15, her protest spread from Vanuatu to Hong Kong (pictured here), Tashkent to Madagascar. In Thailand, one of the world's top plastic polluters, students campaigned against single-use plastics.
Image: AFP/Getty Images/A. Wallace
Seoul to Singapore
From Seoul to Singapore, each city's students spoke out in their own way. Here in South Korea, 100 students held signs saying "Too warm 4 school" and "Don't deny climate change." In Singapore, strict laws regulate public assembly so young people planned a virtual campaign on social media.
Image: Getty Images/Chung Sung-Jun
'To educate adults'
In India, protests were seen in 36 different cities, including New Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Bangalore. Students in New Delhi chanted slogans demanding the Indian government stop using coal and act against climate change and air pollution.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
Berlin takes matters into its own hands
While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has supported the movement, some German students are still afraid to skip school. But not all. Protests were planned for 200 cities across the country. In the German capital, the crowds were huge by midday.
Image: AFP/Getty Images/T. Schwarz
Braving the storm
In the western German city of Cologne, students braved the wet weather. Massive storms have recently battered that part of the country, though they only appeared to fan the flames of the students' protest.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/H. Kaiser
Swedish inspiration
Greta Thunberg (center) led one of the many protests in Sweden. She said she was excited that protests had spread to 2,052 places in 123 countries. Asked if adults should strike too, she replied: "It's up to them, if they want their kids to have a future."
Image: picture alliance/dpa/Zumapress/M. Thor
'Denial is not a policy'
Students in South African cities, including Cape Town and Pretoria, joined in the school strike. Africa, with more than 1 billion people, is expected to be hardest hit by global warming even though it contributes the least to greenhouse gas emissions.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/N. Manie
Strike across the US
Strikes were held by students in cities across the country, including New York, Washington, Chicago, Portland, Oregon and St. Paul, Minnesota. In June 2017, US President Donald Trump announced that the US was withdrawing from the 2015 Paris agreement on mitigating climate change.
Montreal drew among the largest crowds, estimated by organizers at nearly 150,000. The global movement saw a response from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who said he was inspired by the climate strikers to call a special summit in September to deal with "the climate emergency."