When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last spoke before the US Congress, he railed against the then-Obama administration's signature diplomatic project - the Iran Nuclear Deal, straining his ties with the White House.

Nine years later, Netanyahu is due back at the Capitol. And this time, the circumstances are even more tense.

Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow for the Middle East and North Africa at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center, said the timing of the visit cannot be worse.

"He will humiliate Biden, frankly, by showing up without having agreed to a cease-fire deal. It will not help his re-election chances. It will infuriate many, many Americans who are extremely angry about what is going on in the Middle East," said Slavin.

"This is not the right time. If he had accepted a ceasefire months ago and begun a reconstruction process in Gaza, perhaps. It is an act of incredible chutzpah - nerve for him to show his face in Washington."

Netanyahu to present 'truth about our just war'

The Biden administration faces criticism at home and abroad, for struggling to walk the line between supporting a key ally and enabling Netanyahu to conduct the wartime operations that have led to a severe humanitarian crisis and killed 38,000 people in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Israel and Hamas have been at war since October 7, 2023, when the militant Islamist group attacked Israel, killing more than 1,100 Israelis and taking 251 hostages.

Hamas has been designated as a terror organization by Israel, Germany and the US, among other governments. In response to receiving the invitation to speak in Congress, Netanyahu said he would seek "to present the truth about our just war against those who seek to destroy us to the representatives of the American people and the entire world."

Yet massive protests are already planned around Netanyahu's visit. Several Democrat lawmakers have indicated they will boycott his speech, in particular members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a group of left-leaning lawmakers who already have voiced strong criticism of Israel in recent months.

But Jon Alterman,director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says that it is not just to Congress that Netanyahu wants to send a message.

"He has two audiences in mind  one is the American audience, he wants to build support for Israel in Congress. He's also thinking about a domestic audience. So many Israelis are upset with how the war is gone. They're upset about the hostages", said Alterman. "I think he wants to demonstrate that he hasn't destroyed US-Israeli relations, as some of his political critics argue. What he is much less interested in, is what the Biden White House thinks."

Souring US-Israel relations

Several key events deepened the rift between the US and Israeli leadership in recent months, like the White House stopping certain arms shipments amid concerns over Israel's offensive in Rafah. A video released by Netanyahu claiming the US was withholding even more support for Israel than it had made public also angered Washington. The Israeli prime minister also so far has refused to agree to the US-backed cease-fire-hostage deal.

Slavin said that the invitation to Netanyahu, extended in May by the leaders of the House and the Senate, was probably made in the expectation that overall conditions would have improved by now — which they haven't.

"I think the anticipation was that by the end of July, you know, with this war in its ninth month that there would have been a cease-fire, that there would be a plan for what happens afterwards," said Slavin. "Instead, we see that Netanyahu is still in charge, And so he is relying purely on a right wing coalition that is not just pursuing this hideous war in Gaza, but is also gobbling up more and more of the West Bank to make sure that there can be no Palestinian state ever."

Concerns over a widening of the war— which the US has very clearly opposed, also loom large, especially as Israel and Iran-based Hezbollah trade fire over the Israel-Lebanon border.

Pressure from home

Netanyahu's upcoming travel to Washington has also faced intense scrutiny at home. A letter of some 500 Israeli academics urged the US Congress to disinvite Netanyahu, arguing that allowing him to speak "could reduce the increasing public pressure on Netanyahu from the international community to accept the hostage deal on the table." Back in Israel, opposition figures also called in a Knesset debate for Netanyahu to either announce his acceptance of the hostage deal in front of Congress, or not go to Washington at all.

Maya Roman, whose relative remains in Hamas captivity, does not think Netanyahu will - but maintains hope he might. Keeping the hostage deal in the spotlight is what is motivating her to also make the trip to Washington for Netanyahu's speech.

"He's going to talk about the ordeal we've been through. And all of those things are true and important for people to remember. I just feel like if he talks about those things without being committed to a deal, then he's doing a disservice," said Roman.

"He's basically taking our pain and using it for gain and not for our purposes, not for bringing back our loved ones. If someone is going to use our story and use what we've been through since October 7th, then they know that the terrible, terrible ordeal that the families have been through, then it should be in service of making sure that our loved ones are coming back."

Netanyahu bides his time

For all the furore surrounding Netanyahu's trip, Alterman of CSIS said Netanyahu has a very practical objective: to delay the threat to his leadership back home.

"The visit comes towards the end of the Knesset term, and the Knesset goes out for summer vacation, and then for the Jewish holidays in the fall," he said. "The Knesset will be out from about the time Netanyahu's visit ends until almost the US election. And so for Netanyahu, who's worried about his political survival, the sense is that you can say, okay, so wait till this American visits over, but then the Knesset is out. And then so we will wait till after the US election."

It would be very difficult to bring down the government when the Knesset is not in session, Alterman added.

Beyond the single, divisive occasion of Netanyahu's visit, there are indications that the long-established status quo that anchors the US-Israel relationship is shifting.

The boycott by some Democrat lawmakers of the speech is representative of a break in the bipartisanship traditionally taken for granted when it comes to US support for Israel. And the campus protests that exploded around the country expressing opposition to the war are a harbinger of a generational and ideological shift in US perceptions of Israel.

"Young people don't have any memory of plucky little Israel fighting for its existence. They only know an Israel that kills Palestinians. So they don't see a democratic ally. They don't see a country with which we share values," said Slavin. "I think Israel is in real danger of losing a generation in the United States. We may not see the impact immediately, but we will see it five, ten, 20 years from now."

Editor: Andreas Illmer