Determination was written all over Bola Ahmed Tinubu's face as he addressed his supporters ahead of Nigeria's 2023 election, "Now it's the turn of Yoruba!" Tinubu is the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate.

Tinubu's main challenger, Atiku Abubakar, naturally sees things differently. "This is what the northern man needs. It doesn't need a Yoruba candidate or an Igbo candidate," Abubakar recently stated at a political event.

Presidential elections in Nigeria have always created tensions and stoked fears of being ruled, dominated, or marginalized by another ethnic group. With over 200 million people, Nigeria is Africa's most populous and multi-ethnic nation, boasting more than 500 languages.

Hausa, Yoruba and Igbo

Nigeria's largest and politically most influential peoples are the predominantly Muslim Hausa-Fulani from the north, the majority Christian Yoruba in the southwest, and the Igbo people in the southeast.

Before the colonial era, the territory of the present-day Federal Republic of Nigeria was home to numerous kingdoms and states. In the 19th century, British colonialists brought more and more of them under control.

They formed the protectorates of Southern Nigeria and Northern Nigeria, which became a joint colony in 1914. At the same time, the British colonial administration promoted existing ruling structures and ethnic affiliations and exploited them in the spirit of "divide and rule."

Who can unite Nigeria?

The major political parties in Nigeria are ethnically and religiously mixed. To counteract tensions, they used to alternate presidential candidates from the predominantly Christian south and the predominantly Muslim north.

However, this principle has not been observed for some years. For example, Bola Tinubu, the ruling APC party presidential candidate, is from the south but, like President Muhammadu Buhari, he, too, is a Muslim.

If his challenger Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) were to win, a Muslim from the north would once again be head of state.

Only Peter Obi, the third promising candidate, a Christian from the south, would continue the rotation if Nigerians elected him president.

"Ultimately, what will bring the country forward is somebody that appreciates that we are one nation," Friday Nwankwo Ndubuisi, who researches ethnicity in politics at the University of Lagos, told DW. "That is what will unite the country."

All the promising presidential candidates have already held important political offices. Many Nigerians are looking less at the candidates' ethnic or religious affiliation this time around and more at what they have achieved in their political careers so far — Nigerians long for a president who can seriously address their problems.

Deep historical divisions

When Nigeria gained independence in 1960, the rifts between Yoruba, Igbo, and Hausa-Fulani were already deep.

Power struggles among political elites led to bloody uprisings and several military coups. Politicians invoked ethnic and religious affiliations to mobilize their supporters.

"The regional elites were more inclined to their regions than to the Nigerian state," Rahamatu Lawal, a political scientist at Ahmadu Bello University, told DW.

"The Nigerian state has never been seen as the main, as the sole protector of the Nigerian people." 

Observers say great social inequality, poverty, and a lack of prospects have led to tensions. In addition, they contribute to the fact that violent conflicts repeatedly shake the country.

Oil production and separatists in the south

For example, when Nigeria discovered oil in the Niger Delta in the mid-20th century, conflicts arose between ethnic groups. But militias formed since the local people did not benefit from the profits. As a result, some of these armed groups have destroyed oil pipelines and attacked international oil companies.

In southeastern Nigeria, where the Igbo ethnic group live, separatist groups campaign to create an independent nation they call Biafra. Similar efforts in the late 1960s led to a civil war that lasted almost three years. A low-level violent conflict between separatists and the central government has again prevailed for several years.

Polling stations attacked

On February 1 this year, gunmen attacked a polling station and a police station in southeastern Nigeria, killing a teenager and destroying hundreds of ballot boxes and polling booths, among other things. In late January, insurgents beheaded a government official and warned that no elections would be held in the region.

Many Igbo people are unhappy with the government under the leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari, who hails from the north. "They have seen now that the president has been here for eight years but does not understand and is not able to solve Nigerian problems," Ndubuisi said, adding that the south believes the presidency should go to them. "The southeast is saying: We have never produced a president. We want a president."

Islamists in the north, land conflicts in the central region

Many people in northern Nigeria, President Buhari's stronghold, are also disappointed. Contrary to his promises, he has not succeeded in providing security. In northeastern Nigeria, Islamist groups such as Boko Haram repeatedly carry out terrorist attacks.

As a result, around 3 million people have fled their homes. The security situation is also tense in northwestern Nigeria, where armed robberies and kidnappings have become a profitable criminal business model.

Ethnoreligious and increasingly violent conflicts over land use repeatedly flare up in central Nigeria. Muslim herders frequently clash with predominantly Christian farmers. Security analysts warn that the ongoing desertification in the country's north, population growth, and the tense economic situation exacerbates the conflict.

This article was initially written in German