Britain faces a shortfall of everyday essentials if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, a new leaked report says. Some lawmakers are demanding Parliament be recalled to discuss a no-deal Brexit.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Durham
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A no-deal Brexit would jam British ports, leading to shortages of food, medicine and fuel, the latest British government report suggests.
Leaked to The Sunday Times, the forecast warned that 85% of lorries using the main crossings between England and France "may not be ready" for French customs.
The report, codenamed Operation Yellowhammer, said disruption at ports could last for three months, causing a decrease in the fresh food supply. It says this could potentially lead to panic buying.
The fresh warning comes as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempts to force Brussels to reopen negotiations on the Brexit deal agreed with his predecessor Theresa May. Johnson has insisted that the UK will leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal.
The report predicted that border delays would lead to severe traffic disruption especially around the British capital, London, and southeastern England, which could affect the distribution of fuel.
It also warned that a no-deal Brexit would impact the supply of medicines and medical supplies, many of which arrive in the UK from the European mainland.
The report noted that few bilateral deals have been concluded with individual EU member states, except over social security rights, and that public and business readiness for Britain crashing out of the EU "remain at a low level."
Similar dire predictions made by academics and by other British government departments have been dismissed as scaremongering by those who support Brexit.
However, Johnson is under intense pressure from politicians across the political spectrum to prevent a disorderly departure.
'Call MPs back from vacation'
More than 100 lawmakers have urged an immediate recall of Parliament so they can debate a no-deal Brexit. Parliament is currently in its summer recess and is not due to return until September 3.
The minister in charge of coordinating no-deal preparations, Michael Gove, insisted later on Sunday the leaked document was just a "worst-case scenario."
He said on Twitter that very "significant steps have been taken in the last 3 weeks to
accelerate Brexit planning."
Boris to meet Merkel, Macron
Johnson, meanwhile, is due in several European capitals this week on his first overseas trip as prime minister to seek a new Brexit deal and avoid a no-deal departure.
European leaders have repeatedly rejected reopening an accord agreed by May last year but then rejected by British lawmakers on three occasions.
On Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she would meet Johnson on Wednesday, but she noted that Berlin was prepared for a disorderly Brexit.
"We are prepared for any outcome ... even if we do not get an agreement. But at all opportunities, I will make an effort to find solutions — up until the last day of negotiations."
In a further move, Britain announced on Sunday it had ordered the repeal of the European Communities Act, which took Britain into the forerunner to the EU 46 years ago and gives Brussels law supremacy.
The order, signed by Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay on Friday, is set to take effect on October 31.
mm/tj (AFP, AP, Reuters)
This septic isle
The head of the UK parliament's anti-EU research group, Jacob Rees-Mogg, says no-deal would boost the economy by 1.1 trillion pounds (€1.32 trillion). Not many agree with him. So, what would a no-deal Brexit look like?
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It never rains
A delay by UK Prime Minister Theresa May to allow Parliament to vote on her Brexit deal has increased the chances Britain will leave the bloc without a deal in March. The odds on a no-deal Brexit have shortened to 2/1, according to oddschecker.com, while Steve Eisman, the trader whose prediction of the 2008 crisis was dramatized in the film The Big Short, is betting against UK banks.
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Money where your mouth is
The IMF says that while some sectors like agriculture and mining might benefit, the majority of sectors would shrink by between about 1 percent and 33 percent. The Bank of England said no-deal would wipe between 4.75 percent and 7.75 percent off what the UK would have produced by 2024 and the pound would fall by 25 percent.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/C. Radburn
Not waving, but drowning
The EU has said the UK would have "third country" status under a no-deal scenario, giving it the same status as China, Russia and Pakistan. All goods crossing EU borders would be subject to tariffs of up to 38 percent. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said additional paperwork attached to trading under WTO rules would act as an extra tariff of up to an average of 6.5 percent.
Image: Getty Images/S. Rayford
Love's labor lost
Britain’s farmers and manufacturers face the largest shortage of skilled workers since 1989 due to a fall in the numbers of EU27 nationals coming to work since the Brexit vote. A no deal would likely accelerate that process.
Image: Imago/i Images/A. Parsons
A road to nowhere
The financial industry and British regulators say a hard Brexit poses a threat to trillions of euros worth of derivative and insurance contracts London could lose up to to €800 billion to Frankfurt, lobby group Frankfurt Main Finance has said. Some 30 banks and financial firms have already chosen the city as the site of their new EU headquarters, with others opting for Dublin or Paris.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
Movers and shakers left in limbo
No-deal would have significant implications for people's ability to go where they want. A €7 charge for visiting the EU's Schengen Area would kick in in 2021, after the UK's transition period ends. British expats would face uncertainty, as many foreign governments have not yet established their rules for residency under no-deal.
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Can't beat a good queue
The UK Road Haulage Association has said a lack of planning over no-deal would mean the manufacturing sector would be put under "severe pressure" and hauliers would go out of business. European airports have warned that no-deal would cause "major disruption and heightened safety risks" to the air network. Ryanair's chief executive Michael O'Leary has warned planes could be grounded.
Image: Reuters/T. Melville
All in it together
The biggest impact of no deal could be felt in Ireland, which exports 12 percent of its goods and 40 percent of its food to the UK, and two-thirds of its other exports travel through the UK. The IMF believes the Netherlands, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Belgium also face taking moderate hits to their economies of between 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/V. Simanek
Where there is harmony, May brings discord
The Police Federation has said it was worried about "widescale disruption and dangers for the general public." Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson has said 3,500 troops are on standby to cope with the fallout of no deal. The government is preparing for potential shortages of key items in the wake of a no-deal Brexit. But May refused to guarantee the health service (NHS) would have enough medicines.
Image: Reuters
Christmas-voting turkeys play chicken in Ireland
The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would remain unresolved with no deal. The main sticking point has been the Irish 'backstop' — the insurance scheme for avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland. One solution has been a Canada-style agreement that would remove most EU restrictions but would not abolish the need for a hard border. But uncertainty breeds fear.
