A presidential election will take place in Belarus on Sunday. Afterward, the election commission is expected to announce that the 70-year-old Alexander Lukashenko has been elected for a seventh term.

The longtime dictator lost his legitimacy after the 2020 election, which was widely seen as rigged, and since then he has been internationally isolated and completely dependent on Russia. Now, he is seeking recognition.

During the public protests following the 2020 election, Lukashenko assured people that his sixth term would be his last. But he has not kept that promise; instead, he has been actively campaigning. "His main message is: 'Without me, things will get worse. Belarus might be dragged into a war,'" said Valery Karbalevich, a Belarusian political scientist.

How will this election be different?

Lev Gudkov from the Levada Center polling agency in Moscow told DW that in 2020, according to polls, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received 53% of the vote, while Lukashenko only won 28%. The Belarusian election authorities, however, declared that Lukashenko won 80.1% of the vote, and Tsikhanouskaya only 10.1%. The Levada Center is regarded as the only largely independent polling institute left in Russia.

Back then, the internet in Belarus was shut down for three days to cover up the alleged electoral fraud. Thousands were arrested, and many were tortured and beaten by the police. The violence sparked days of mass protests.

Now, almost five years later, the regime wants to avoid such scenes. Independent media have been classified as extremist and driven out of the country. The membership of election commissions is a secret, and only representatives of parties and organizations loyal to the government are allowed to observe the voting process.

Authorities only sent a formal invitation to OSCE observers at the last minute, which means they have escaped international observation leading up to the election. Instead, police will be on guard in the polling stations to watch over the voting process, and voting booths will not have privacy curtains. People are also prohibited from photographing ballots, and will be fined for any violation.

Polling stations will also not be made available outside the country, with Belarusians living abroad being told they should come to Belarus to vote. For opponents of the regime and politically persecuted individuals who have been unable to return home for years, many of whom have found asylum in EU countries, this is not an option.

There's also no one for them to vote for, as Lukashenko has no real challengers. The opposition abroad has therefore called for a boycott of the "no-choice election."

Who are Lukashenko's 'rival candidates'?

Lukashenko's true competitors are Tsikhanouskaya, Viktar Babaryka, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Maria Kolesnikova and Pavel Latushka. All were arrested in 2020 and either sent to prison or forced into exile.

Officially, three representatives from government-loyal parties are running against Lukashenko on Sunday: Sergei Syrankov, Alexander Khizhnyak and Oleg Gaidukevich, plus the pseudo-oppositionist Hanna Kanapatskaya, who also participated in the 2020 election, receiving around 1.5% of the vote.

Kanapatskaya is one of the few who, after taking part in that election, managed to remain free and in Belarus despite presenting herself as part of the opposition. Belarusian experts told DW that her participation in the 2025 election is simply meant to give the appearance of competition. Kanapatskaya has made the case for a "bloodless, civilized, and democratic transition of power in the country," but has not mentioned either election fraud or repression.

Activists, opposition figures flee ongoing repression

Although Lukashenko has released 250 political prisoners in recent months, the repression of opposition figures has continued. According to the Viasna human rights center in Minsk, at least 8,895 people were subjected to politically motivated arrests, interrogations and searches in 2024 alone.

Since the summer of 2020, human rights activists have recognized a total of 3,697 people as political prisoners: 1,254 are still in custody, with some being held in total isolation, not allowed to meet with relatives or lawyers, or receive letters.

People are still being persecuted for posting comments and likes on social media from 2020, and for participating in those protests. In the past few years, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have fled abroad. Since 2023, they have been cut off from any contact with the state of which they are citizens, because Belarusian embassies abroad have stopped issuing new passports, certificates and documents.

What expectations do Belarusians have?

According to a Chatham House study conducted between December and January, Belarusians see the 2025 election as an important event, but they don't want to go to the polls. In 2020, 75% said they would "definitely" vote. Today, only 36% feel the same.

Belarusians do not anticipate any change. Instead, what the majority is hoping for is "a breathing space, and a thaw in relations." But political scientist Karbalevich warned there would be no "thaw" under Lukashenko.

"Belarus is entering a new phase," he said. "The regime is transitioning from an authoritarian to a totalitarian one."

According to the study, 55% of respondents believe Belarus should focus more on improving relations with EU countries. Just over half wish for Belarusians abroad to be able to return.

This article was originally written in Russian.