Can Xue is considered one of this year's favorites; Margaret Atwood and Salman Rushdie are other strong contenders. But what goes on behind the scenes in the selection of the Nobel Prize in Literature?
The building of Nobel Prize Museum in Stockholm is also the home of the Swedish Academy, which selects the recipient of the literature awardImage: Steffen Trumpf/dpa/picture alliance
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On Thursday, October 8, at around 1:00 p.m. CEST, all eyes in the literary world will be set on Stockholm.
That's when the new permanent secretary of the Swedish Academy, Ingrid Carlberg, will hold a press conference to announce the winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, marking the end of a lengthy selection process that officially began a year earlier.
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Nobel Prize in Literature: How nominations work
The Swedish Academy is the body responsible for awarding the prize. Its 18 members consist of writers, professors and intellectuals.
In September of the previous year, the Academy's Nobel Committee sends forms to hundreds of individuals and organizations eligible to submit nominations for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
According to the Nobel Prize website, these include professors of literature and linguistics at universities and colleges, previous Nobel laureates in literature and the heads of writers' associations that represent the literary community in their respective countries. Anyone from one of these groups who has not received a form may also submit a nomination.
Bob Dylan, Annie Ernaux, Han Kang and now Laszlo Krasznahorkai. Here's a look back at the last 20 laureates of the prestigious literary award.
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2025: Laszlo Krasznahorkai
The Hungarian novelist and screenwriter has produced a "compelling and visionary oeuvre that, in the midst of apocalyptic terror, reaffirms the power of art," noted the Swedish Academy, who has awarded Krasznahorkai the Nobel Prize in Literature for 2025. His debut novel "Satantango" (1985) was adapted into a legendary 7.5-hour film by Bela Tarr.
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2024: Han Kang
Han Kang is the first South Korean author to win the Nobel Prize in literature, recognizing "her intense poetic prose that confronts historical traumas and exposes the fragility of human life." Her publication debut came as a poet in 1993; the Man Booker International Prize for fiction, awarded to her in 2016 for her novel "The Vegetarian," marked her global breakthrough.
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2023: Jon Fosse
The Norwegian playwright has had 1,000 productions of his plays staged in more than 50 languages. He is also the author of novels, poetry and children's books. The Nobel Prize committee selected the writer "for his innovative plays and prose which give voice to the unsayable." He is shown here at the National Book Awards in 2022, where he was a nominee for "A New Name: Septology VI-VII."
The French author, born in 1940, is renowned for her autobiographical prose works that go "beyond fiction in the narrow sense," said the Swedish Academy. Among others, her 2001 book "Happening" deals with her illegal abortion from the 1960s. She was selected "for the courage and clinical acuity with which she uncovers the roots, estrangements and collective restraints of personal memory."
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2021: Abdulrazak Gurnah
Tanzanian novelist Abdulrazak Gurnah won the Nobel Prize in literature in 2021 "for his uncompromising and compassionate penetration of the effects of colonialism," said the Swedish Academy. "His novels recoil from stereotypical descriptions and open our gaze to a culturally diversified East Africa unfamiliar to many in other parts of the world."
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2020: Louise Glück
Crowned with the Nobel Prize in literature in 2020, the American poet and essayist had already won major awards in the US, including the Pulitzer Prize and National Book Award, as well as the National Humanities Medal, which was presented by Barack Obama in 2016. Her most notable works include "The Triumph of Achilles" (1985) and "The Wild Iris" (1992).
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2019: Peter Handke
The Austrian author born in 1942 became famous with experimental plays such as "Offending the Audience" in 1966. He also co-wrote Wim Wenders films, including "Wings of Desire." The decision to award Handke the Nobel Prize was criticized since he is also known for his controversial positions on the Yugoslav wars. In 2014, he had also called the prize to be abolished, dubbing it a "circus."
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2018: Olga Tokarczuk
The Polish writer was actually awarded the 2018 Nobel Prize in 2019, since it had been postponed for a year following scandals affecting the Swedish Academy, the body that chooses the laureates for the award. A two-time winner of Poland's top literary prize, the Nike Award, Tokarczuk was also honored in 2010 with the Man Booker International Prize for her novel "Flights."
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2017: Kazuo Ishiguro
Japan-born British novelist, screenwriter and short story writer Kazuo Ishiguro won the 2017 award. His most renowned novel, "The Remains of the Day" (1989), was adapted into a movie starring Anthony Hopkins, while his latest novel, "Klara and the Sun" (2021), has been made into a film with Jenna Ortega in the titular role. His works deal with memory, time and self-delusion.
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2016: Bob Dylan
An atypical but world famous laureate: US songwriter Bob Dylan was awarded the Nobel Prize in literature in 2016. The Swedish Academy selected Dylan "for having created new poetic expressions within the great American song tradition."
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2015: Svetlana Alexievich
Calling her work "a monument to suffering and courage in our time," the Swedish Academy honored the Belarusian author and investigative journalist in 2015. Alexievich is best known for her emotive firsthand accounts of war and suffering, including "War's Unwomanly Face" (1985) and "Voices from Chernobyl" (2005).
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2014: Patrick Modiano
The French writer's stories describe a universe of haunted cities, absentee parents, criminality and lost youths. They are all set in Paris with the shadow of World War II looming heavily in the background. The Swedish Academy described the novelist, whose work has often focused on the Nazi occupation of France, as "a Marcel Proust of our time."
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2013: Alice Munro
Canadian writer Alice Munro, who died in 2024, was no stranger to accolades, having received the Man Booker International Prize and the Canadian Governor General Literary Award three times over. The Swedish Academy called her a "master of the contemporary short story."
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2012: Mo Yan
Guan Moye, better known under his pen name Mo Yan, was praised by the Swedish Academy as a writer "who with hallucinatory realism merges folk tales, history and the contemporary." The decision was criticized by Chinese dissidents like artist Ai Weiwei, who claimed Mo Yan was too close to the Chinese Communist Party and did not support fellow intellectuals who faced political repression.
The academy chose Tomas Gosta Transtromer (1931-2015) as the winner in 2011 "because, through his condensed, translucent images, he gives us fresh access to reality." In the 1960s, the Swedish poet worked as a psychologist at a center for juvenile offenders. His poetry has been translated into over 60 languages.
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2010: Mario Vargas Llosa
The Peruvian novelist, who died in April 2025, received the Nobel Prize "for his cartography of structures of power and his trenchant images of the individual's resistance, revolt, and defeat." In Latin America, he was famous for stating "Mexico is the perfect dictatorship" on TV in 1990, and for punching his once-friend and fellow Nobel laureate, Gabriel Garcia Marquez, in the face in 1976.
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2009: Herta Müller
The German-Romanian author was awarded the Nobel Prize as a writer "who, with the concentration of poetry and the frankness of prose, depicts the landscape of the dispossessed." She is noted for her work criticizing the repressive communist regime of Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania, which she experienced herself. Müller writes in German and moved to West Berlin in 1987.
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2008: Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio
The Swedish Academy called J.M.G. Le Clezio an "author of new departures, poetic adventure and sensual ecstasy, explorer of a humanity beyond and below the reigning civilization." Le Clezio was born in Nice, France, in 1940 to a French mother and a Mauritian father. He holds dual citizenship and calls Mauritius his "little fatherland."
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2007: Doris Lessing
The 11th woman to win the award since its creation in 1901, British author Doris May Lessing (1919-2013) wrote novels, plays and short stories. The Nobel Prize recognized her for being a writer "who with skepticism, fire and visionary power has subjected a divided civilization to scrutiny." She also campaigned against nuclear weapons and the apartheid regime in South Africa.
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2006: Orhan Pamuk
Ferit Orhan Pamuk, "who in the quest for the melancholic soul of his native city has discovered new symbols for the clash and interlacing of cultures," was the first Turkish author to be awarded the Nobel Prize in literature. With more than 13 million books sold, he is Turkey's bestselling writer. Pamuk was born in Istanbul and currently teaches at Columbia University in New York City.
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"The list can reach 200 names per year of nominated authors," explains Gisele Sapiro, research director at France's National Centre for Scientific Research. She studies how the Nobel Prize, as a global institution, influences the international circulation of literature, power dynamics in the literary world and translation markets.
"The committee can also add names itself, such as authors who were nominated in previous years," she says.
In the spring, the Nobel Committee then selects five names through a multistage process and presents them to the Academy. Over the summer, Academy members read the nominees' works and discuss them. The Academy always announces the decision in early October.
As for the criteria the Academy uses to make its decision, it prefers to keep them to itself.
The 2026 laureate? Chinese author Can Xue holds the best bookmakers' oddsImage: Dave Johnston/EEm/picture alliance
The Nobel Prize in Literature's secret files
The public doesn't learn which nominees missed out until 50 years later — that's how long the Academy waits before releasing the list.
Sometimes decades pass between an author's first nomination and actually receiving the prize. Danish writer Johannes V. Jensen, who won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1944, waited 40 years. Doris Lessing received the award in 2007 after 35 years, while Thomas Mann, who won in 1929, had to wait 27 years.
According to the Academy, Thomas Mann received the award in 1929 primarily for 'Buddenbrooks'; the novel had already been published in 1901Image: AP Photo/picture alliance
In his will, Alfred Nobel, the prize's founder, stipulated that it should be awarded to the person who had produced "the most outstanding work in an idealistic direction." That leaves plenty of room for interpretation.
According to Gisele Sapiro, the Academy aims to honor ambitious, influential literature that has, for example, given rise to a new literary movement. "At the same time, the work has to be universal, being able to transcend its own culture," she says.
Translations can be one indication of this. "I noted in my research, however, that all the laureates since 1990 had been translated into English, French and German — except for Abdulrazak Gurnah [the Tanzanian-British 2021 Nobel laureate], who had not been translated into German before winning — meaning that I think these three languages are the most important," Sapiro explains.
Sapiro says it is also a major advantage if nominees have already won other major literary awards, such as the International Man Booker Prize, the Cervantes Prize or the Büchner Prize.
One of the most important awards in literature, the Nobel Prize was first given out in 1901. The 2018 honor was postponed. It wasn't the only controversy in the award's history.
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2018: Resignations over a #MeToo scandal
Until 2018, the Swedish Academy's 18 members technically held the position for life. That changed when three group members stepped down in protest against the Academy membership of poet Katarina Frostenson, whose husband is accused of sexual harassment. Academy secretary Sara Danius (photo) and Frostenson also left shortly afterwards, leading to the decision to postpone the 2018 award.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Ekstromer
1989: Resignations in support of Salman Rushdie
While the famous author of "The Satanic Verses" never won the Nobel Prize in Literature, some members of the Swedish Academy felt their organization should denounce Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's fatwa calling for Salman Rushdie's assassination in 1989. The Academy refused to do so, and three members resigned in protest.
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He didn't comment for weeks: Bob Dylan
He became the first singer-songwriter to obtain the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2016, shocking quite a few literature purists. Then Dylan didn't even seem that interested by the recognition. He didn't show up at the awards ceremony and simply sent a brief thank-you speech instead of the traditional Nobel lecture. He finally collected his prize in Stockholm in March 2017.
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A late tribute to his first novel: Thomas Mann
Thomas Mann received the prize in 1929, but it wasn't for his most recent work, "The Magic Mountain" (1924), which the jury found too tedious. The distinction instead recognized his debut novel, "Buddenbrooks" — published 28 years earlier. Time had apparently added to its value. The jury said, it "has won steadily increased recognition as one of the classic works of contemporary literature."
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Too many people: Elfriede Jelinek
When she was honored with the prize in 2004, Austrian author Elfriede Jelinek also refused to go to the awards ceremony. "I cannot manage being in a crowd of people. I cannot stand public attention," the reclusive playwright said. The Swedish Academy had to accept her agoraphobia, but she did, at least, hold her Nobel lecture — per video.
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Couldn't accept the prize: Boris Pasternak
The Soviet author, world famous for his novel "Doctor Zhivago," obtained Nobel recognition in 1958. However, Soviet authorities forced him to decline the prize; he wouldn't be able to re-enter the country if he went to the Stockholm ceremony. Even though he followed his government's orders, he was still demonized afterwards. His son picked up the award in 1989, 29 years after the author's death.
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'Not literature': Dario Fo
When Italian comedian and playwright Dario Fo won the prize in 1997, the announcement came as a shock to many literary critics, who saw him as just an entertainer and not a real literary figure with an international standing. The satirist fired back with his Nobel speech, which he titled "Against jesters who defame and insult."
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Literature, not Peace: Winston Churchill
Although British Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1945, he actually obtained the award for his written works — mostly memoirs, history volumes and speeches — in 1953. The jury praised "his mastery of historical and biographical description as well as for brilliant oratory in defending exalted human values."
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Did he want the money?: Jean-Paul Sartre
The French philosopher and playwright was awarded the 1964 Nobel Prize in Literature, but he declined it, saying that "a writer should not allow himself to be turned into an institution" by accepting official honors. It was rumored that he later asked for the prize money anyway — but that story was never confirmed.
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The youngest winner: Rudyard Kipling
Winning the award in 1907 at the age of 41, British author Joseph Rudyard Kipling, best known for "The Jungle Book" (1894), remains the youngest Nobel laureate in literature to this day. However, his legacy has since been marred by the fact that Kipling, who spent his early childhood and some of his adult life in India, vehemently spoke out in defense of British colonialism.
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Any genre is eligible
Politics can also influence the Swedish Academy's decisions.
On several occasions, the prize has gone to writers who openly opposed the regimes in their home countries, such as Belarusian writer Svetlana Alexievich in 2015. She is an outspoken critic of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Genre, on the other hand, does not matter. In the past, laureates have been honored not only for novels but also for poetry and plays. In 2016, singer-songwriter Bob Dylan received the prize for his song lyrics.
So far, only 33 of the 122 laureates have come from outside Europe. There is also a clear gender imbalance: only in the past eight years have men and women alternated as winners, significantly increasing women's share of the total number of laureates to 14.9%.