With Vladimir Putin in North Korea, both Moscow and Pyongyang hope his talks with Kim Jong Un will reinforce the relationship between the two countries as they find themselves ostracized by large parts of the world.

The talks are expected to produce a number of both economic and military initiatives. Analysts warn that some of the agreements — especially those on the exchange of weapons and advanced missile and satellite technology — are likely to be kept under wraps.

Beyond those deals, however, both sides are just as eager to put on a grand display of statesmanship. Kim Jong Un is desperate to burnish his credentials as a significant world leader, and satellite images of the North Korean capital are showing lavish preparations for Putin's arrival in downtown Pyongyang. Putin, for his part, wants to demonstrate that Russia still has friends and allies and he is free to travel overseas despite UN sanctions and international arrest warrants issued against him by the International Criminal Court over Russian troops allegedly abducting children in Ukraine.

Kim's 'victory' in welcoming Putin

"The list of countries willing to welcome Putin is shorter than ever, but for Kim Jong Un, this visit is a victory," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at the Ewha Womans University in South Korea. "Not only does the summit upgrade North Korea's status among countries standing against the US-led international order, it also helps bolster Kim's domestic legitimacy." 

"Moscow and Pyongyang will likely continue to deny violations of international law but have notably shifted from hiding their illicit activities to flaunting their cooperation," he told DW.

"Putin's visit is in part to thank North Korea for acting as an 'arsenal for autocracy' in support of his illegal invasion of Ukraine," Easley added. "After Kim Jong Un traveled to Russia for the previous two bilateral summits, this reciprocal visit is politically important because it allows Pyongyang's propaganda to portray Kim as a world leader."

Moscow and Pyongyang united against US 'double standard'

Even before touching down in Pyongyang, Putin had announced the creation of new, unspecified systems for trade and international payments. Russia has been effectively locked out from Western-led structures for international cooperation due to sanctions over the Ukraine war. North Korea has similarly been unable to access banking and other trade facilities as punishment for its nuclear weapons and missile programs.

In an article published in North Korea's Rodong Sinmun newspaper on Tuesday morning, Putin said the relationship between the two countries was "based on the principles of equality, mutual respect and trust."

He also expressed his gratitude to North Korea over Pyongyang's support for the "special military operation" in Ukraine and said that the United States was "doing everything it can to impose on the world the so-called 'rules-based order,' which is essentially nothing other than a global neo-colonial dictatorship based on a 'double standard'."

Putin's 'refined skills and strong will'

An accompanying editorial in the newspaper praised Putin as "an outstanding politician" who is "strengthening [Russia's] national power with his refined skills and strong will."

Yakov Zinberg, a Russian-born professor of international relations at Japan's Kokushikan University, sees Putin's visit to Pyongyang as "threatening."

"This is a calculated threat to the US-South Korean-Japanese security alliance in the region and is designed to send the message that not only is he strong on NATO in Europe, but that he is also being strong in the Far East as well," he said.

Zinberg predicts that that Kim will pledge to provide Russia with more artillery rounds, in addition to millions of shots that analysts believe have already been shipped to the front lines in Ukraine. In return, Putin will continue to offer technological support for the North's nuclear, missile and space projects.

Russia and North Korea both denied transferring the ammunition and any illegal cooperation on satellite and military technology.

Is Russia ready to militarily back North Korea?

Lim Eun-jung, an associate professor of international studies at South Korea's Kongju National University, adds that Kim made the "strategic choice" to support Russia from the outset of the Ukraine invasion, in part to reduce its reliance on China for political support on the world stage.

"Kim went to the Vostochy Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East in September last year, and it appears very much as if he was able to secure further advanced Russian technology," she told DW. "I expect he will seek the same again at this meeting, but he may also ask for a firm military commitment from Putin, and if he got that in writing, then that would put North Korea in a very strong position."

Trading natural resources for laborers

Putin is also likely to agree to provide the natural resources that the North Korean economy craves, including oil and gas. Meanwhile, Kim is expected to agree to send more laborers to Russia to make up for the shortfall caused by military conscription.

Lim said Kim is arguably getting the most out of the deal, noting that even Kim's friends in China could have objections to North Korea moving closer to Russia.

"That is a major concern in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, but also in Beijing," she said.

Yet Easley suggests that fault lines are likely to exist not far below the surface of what is effectively an alliance of convenience.

"The alignment of such states is a threat to global commerce and peace," he said. "However, these states do not share durable alliance institutions and values; they are only weakly bound together by resistance to the enforcement of international laws and norms."

"Beyond wealthy democracies, many other governments have abiding interests in rules-based trade and diplomacy," Easley concluded. "They should urgently enforce sanctions to help ensure that the Putin-Kim vision of international relations fails."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

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