On February 14 and 15, some 35,000 people in four municipalities in Northern Kosovo have the chance to cast ballots on whether they accept their national government. Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 2008 and which is currently recognized by 86 United Nations member states, is dominated by ethnic Albanians.

The referendum is going ahead despite criticism from the EU, the Kosovan government, Serbia and even some Serbians within Kosovo.

Those who support the poll accuse the Serbian government in Belgrade of putting their own interests ahead of those of Serbian Kosovans.

"They only want to ensure their status as a candidate for EU membership because that status will help them hold on to power," said Milan Ivanovic, President of the Serbian National Council for Kosovo and Metohija.

The results of the referendum are expected on February 19, and it seems a forgone conclusion that the outcome will be a rejection of Pristina's authority. The question: what will be the good, if any, of such an expression of popular sentiment?

Implications for Serbia

One prominent detractor of the vote is Branko Ninic, the mayor of Leposavic, the largest of the four municipalities where people are going to the polls.

"This popular referendum is superfluous because the citizens in Northern Kosovo have already clearly stated that they refuse to be integrated into Pristina's institutions," Ninic said.

Ninic added that, in his view, Kosovan Serbs should toe the official line in Belgrade.

"We should also reject the referendum because representatives of Serbia have emphasized that it could harm Serbia's interests," Ninic said. "And Serbia is the only state we have."

Belgrade still considers Kosovo a part of Serbia that is under UN administration, a position supported by Russia and China. On the other hand, Serbia would like to join the EU, and 22 of the 27 current members of the European bloc have recognized Kosovo's independence.

The vote, experts say, worsens what is already a dilemma for Belgrade.

"It could make Serbia's EU candidacy more difficult," Belgrade sociologist Dusan Janjic told DW.

Janjic added that the referendum also weakened the position of the Serbian government led by President Boris Tadic and his pro-Western Democratic Party since it suggests a lack of influence by Belgrade over North Kosovo.

"It makes Kosovo into an election topic in Serbia and an issue on which the governing coalition can only lose," Tadic said.

Daily obstacles

Serbia's dilemma, of course, also affects everyday life in the region. Negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina have made little progress even on relatively practical issues like mutual recognition of academic titles and Kosovan participation in regional conferences.

The EU has been pushing for a resolution of the impasse, dangling the prospect that a settlement would help Serbia's chances of accession to the European bloc. Serbia's candidacy will be one topic on the agenda when EU foreign ministers meet in late February.

"The EU member states want Serbia to gain candidate status," the EU Special Envoy for Kosovo, Samuel Zbogar says. "Kosovo has an interest in resolving the conflict over whether Pristina can participate under its own name in regional organizations, and Serbia itself wishes to be an EU candidate. So all sides want an agreement."

But Zbogar added that, should an accord not be reached soon, the issues would probably remain unresolved for the near future.

And most observers concur that the referendum in North Kosovo is not likely to promote a resolution of what remains a very knotty conflict.

Author: Ivan Djerkovic / jc
Editor: Rob Mudge