Back in the 1990s, conflict erupted when a small Balkan state that became independent after the collapse of Yugoslavia called itself the Republic of Macedonia. The move sparked anger in neighboring Greece and hurt its national pride. Greece argued that any state calling itself Macedonia may try to claim its northern territory, which is also called Macedonia.

All this led to lengthy negotiations under UN mediation, with new state names suggested including Republic of New Macedonia and Upper Macedonia. Finally, six years ago, the then Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his counterpart Zoran Zaev reached a compromise.

Greece's northern neighbor was to be called North Macedonia, according to the Prespa Agreement.

The treaty was signed at Lake Prespa, bordering Albania, North Macedonia and Greece. A little later, the newly renamed Balkan state joined NATO, though EU membership is still a long way off.

Mere opportunism in North Macedonia?

Yet when North Macedonia's new president, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, took the oath of office in early May, she referred to her country only as Macedonia.

At the ceremony, the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE party politician said "I declare that I will exercise the office of President of Macedonia conscientiously and responsibly, respect the constitution and the laws and protect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Macedonia." The Greek ambassador left the parliamentary chamber in protest.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek head of government, called the speech an "illegal and unacceptable act" that "constitutes a violation of the Prespa Agreement." The conservative also threatened to block North Macedonia's EU admission. The country has had candidate status since 2005.

Many in Greece and elsewhere fear that VMRO-DPMNE party leader and designated North Macedonia Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski will want to undo the Prespa Agreement.

During the election campaign, Mickoski and Siljanovska-Davkova had repeatedly said they want to call the country by its historical name: Macedonia. The EU is concerned about this development and fears it could spark new tensions in the region.

But Jorgos Tzogopoulos, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Thrace and a member of the Athens-based ELIAMEP think tank, is not overly worried. Siljanovska-Davkova's statement is little more than opportunism, Tzogopoulos told DW.

"Politicians want to flatter voters and often appeal to nationalist sentiments, unfortunately," the analyst said. He does not believe North Macedonia will escalate the conflict with neighboring Greece and doubts Greece will terminate the Prespa Agreement based on this latest incident. "This agreement forms the core of bilateral relations and cannot be reneged on," Tzogopoulos told DW.

Greece: Domestic disagreement

This incident also sparked controversy within Greece. Left-wing opposition leader Stefanos Kasselakis (Syriza) has pointed out that while conservative Prime Minister Mitsotakis urges his northern neighbor to comply with the Prespa Agreement, he himself criticized this very agreement and voted against it when he served as opposition leader in 2018. With a touch of irony, Kasselakis took to X (formerly Twitter), saying "apparently the Prespa agreement wasn't a betrayal after all…"

Mitsotakis, in turn, claims that the most recent incident shows how justified his criticism was at the time. That said, it is unlikely he will ratchet up tensions with North Macedonia. Mitsotakis wants to wait and see what its government does next, reports Greek newspaper Kathimerini.

His own government, meanwhile, is in no rush to fully implement the Prespa Agreement. Three annexes to the agreement, which mainly concern changes to monuments and textbooks, still have not been ratified by Greek parliament.

Analyst Tzogopoulos believes this delay has to do with domestic politics. "The ruling conservatives can no longer reverse the Prespa Agreement but they can tell their voters they are not fully committed to its implementation."

This article was translated from German.