Fifty years after countries signed the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, there are still nearly 15,000 nuclear weapons spread around the world. Experts today believe that complete nuclear disarmament remains unlikely.
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If it weren't the site of a historical anachronism, hardly anyone would take any notice of Büchel, a small town west of Frankfurt, between Koblenz and Trier. Büchel is home to the last remaining atomic bombs in Germany, which have been stored here since the end of the Cold War. The air force base here allegedly houses around 20 B61 bombs, although the exact number is secret. But one thing is certain: each of them is many times more destructive than the bombs that wiped out Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The atomic bombs in Büchel belong to the US, but in an emergency they would be flown to a target and dropped by German Tornado fighter-bombers. Pilots from the Tactical Air Force Wing 33 have been regularly practicing with dummy bombs for decades. The squadron is the main employer in the area, but the existence of these nuclear weapons doesn't show up anywhere on Büchel's website.
This strategy, in which other NATO states also participate, is called "nuclear sharing." Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey also have US nuclear weapons on their territory. The concept of nuclear deterrence which underlies this strategy is still in great demand. As recently as 2012, it was confirmed by NATO as a "core element of collective defense."
Original goal: Nuclear disarmament
The mood was very different 50 years ago. In the UN's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed by the US, Great Britain and the Soviet Union on July 1, 1968, the signatory states undertook to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. They were also striving for complete nuclear disarmament. Germany joined the treaty in 1975, and it has since been signed by more than 190 states.
For a long time, the treaty was regarded as the cornerstone of global disarmament efforts. Today, it appears to be little more than a toothless tiger. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates there are still nearly 15,000 nuclear weapons worldwide. According to their research, the majority are held by the US (6,800) and Russia (7,000).
According to theologian Eberhard Schockenhoff, a professor at the Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg and long-standing member of the German Ethics Council, the nuclear strategies of both sides are based on maintaining this residual stock, at least at its current level.
"This is ethically unacceptable," he said. The nuclear powers have "written off" the goal of nuclear disarmament — if not in public, at least behind closed doors.
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
The Swedish Academy awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize to ICAN. DW tells you about the grasssroots organization and what they are doing to stop nuclear proliferation.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Coffrini
What is ICAN?
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons came to life only ten years before winning the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize. Officially formed in Vienna on the sidelines of a nuclear non-proliferation conference, the non-profit functions as a global umbrella organization that unites groups working towards the total elimination of nuclear weapons. ICAN has 468 partner groups in 101 countries.
The perfect 10th birthday present
In naming ICAN as the Nobel Prize recipient (above), the Norwegian Nobel Committee highlighted the Geneva-based organization's "work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons." An ICAN spokesperson said it was "elated" to have won the prestigious award.
Image: Reuters/NTB Scanpix/H. Junge
Focusing on the human risks
In its work to totally ban nuclear weapons, ICAN highlights their high humanitarian costs and their potential to unleash total environmental, medical and ecological descruction. It earned a significant victory when the UN adopted a new nuclear treaty in July 2017. However. ICAN's President Beatrice Fihn (above) has insisted that its work won't end until all nuclear weapons are gone.
Image: Reuters/D. Balibouse
A nuclear era?
The 2017 Nobel award reflects the return of nuclear escalations to the front burner of international politics, in large part due to the increasingly active nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the standoff between Donald Trump and Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal. However, ICAN's nuclear non-proliferation efforts were praised early on, including by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2012.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. Pedersen
Worldwide support
The Geneva-based ICAN has tens of thousands of activists working around the world, including a German branch in Berlin. It's high-profile supporters include singer and artists Yoko Ono, the Dalai Lama and 1984 Nobel Peace Prize winner and anti-apartheid campaigner Desmond Tutu.
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The clock is ticking…
Tom Sauer, a political scientist and disarmament expert at the University of Antwerp, believes the treaty is "in total crisis." The last review conference in 2015 broke down, and he fears this will also be the case for the next one in 2020.
He believes that this state of affairs will continue until the signatory countries finally fulfil their obligations, which include a massive reduction of warheads down to zero, he says. "They promised that in 1968, but they're not doing it."
But instead of reducing their stockpiles, nuclear weapon states have been modernizing their weapons and incorporating new technology, such as sophisticated guidance systems. Experts say the danger of nuclear war is greater today than it has been for decades.
In January, a panel of scientists, including 17 Nobel Prize winners, set the symbolic Doomsday Clock — which measures how close the planet could be to catastrophe — at 11:58 p.m.. The readjustment put the clock at the closest it's been to midnight since the height of the Cold War.
'Symbolic reasons' for weapons
Back in Büchel, the peace movement is protesting against the nuclear weapons with the slogan "20 Weeks Against 20 Nukes." According to Karl-Heinz Kamp, head of the Berlin-based Federal Academy for Security Policy, the Büchel bombs — also set to be modernized — are still in Germany "primarily for symbolic reasons."
NATO members in Eastern Europe, in particular, attach great importance to "the symbol of America's nuclear pledge." After the fall of the Iron Curtain, NATO promised Russia that it would not deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of its new Eastern European member states. As a result, the weapons have remained in Central and Southern Europe.
But who are these nuclear weapons meant to intimidate? Those Bundeswehr Tornado jets, which could be called upon to transport the bombs to hit enemy targets, would probably only make it as far as Ukraine before running out of fuel.
And yet, despite upholding the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons in its coalition agreement earlier this year, the German government continues to tolerate the existence of these bombs on German soil. According to the governing coalition parties, the conservative Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union and the center-left Social Democrats, Germany has "an interest in participating in the strategic discussions and planning processes" of NATO.
Among NATO members, only France and the United Kingdom, apart from the US, possess their own nuclear weapons. Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea are the other nuclear powers in the world.
None of these nine states intend to abandon their nuclear weapons any time soon; they consider the bombs indispensable to their own security interests. For that reason, Kamp believes a world without nuclear weapons, which former US President Barack Obama backed to great applause in 2009, is not a realistic goal.
"The nuclear genie is out of the bottle," Kamp said, pointing out that materials and know-how are already available to those looking for them. Even in the unlikely event of complete disarmament, the weapons could still be reactivated at any time — not only by governments but, theoretically, also by large, wealthy corporations, which could also acquire the necessary expertise and fissile material.
'A world without nuclear weapons is not a dream'
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New UN attempt
Has the danger posed by the continued existence of nuclear weapons been misjudged, 50 years after the signing of the non-proliferation treaty? Sauer fears this might be the case. He remains concerned that disarmament talks between the US and Russia are currently on hold, and that other countries, in particular Iran and Saudi Arabia, may be striving for nuclear weapons of their own.
Sauer hopes the United Nations will eventually support a complete ban on nuclear weapons, as outlined in a treaty adopted in July 2017 by 122 votes from its 193 member states. Once 50 countries ratify this treaty, it will become legally binding. To date, only 10 countries have done so — none of them major world powers.
If and when that happens, all the signatory countries would then consider nuclear weapons illegal, said Sauer. "The wind is changing, and nuclear powers are on the defensive."
Technologies that revolutionized warfare
Artificial intelligence (AI) experts have warned about the dangerous "revolution" that would occur if lethal autonomous weapons were developed. But what are some of the other inventions that revolutionized warfare?
Image: Getty Images/E. Gooch/Hulton Archive
Artificial Intelligence: 'Third revolution in warfare'
More than 100 AI experts have written to the UN asking them to ban lethal autonomous weapons — those that use AI to act independently. No so-called "killer robots" currently exist, but advances in artificial intelligence have made them a real possibility. Experts said these weapons could be "the third revolution in warfare," after gunpowder and nuclear arms.
Image: Bertrand Guay/AFP/Getty Images
Gunpowder
The "first revolution in warfare" was invented by the Chinese, who started using the explosive black substance between the 10th and 12th centuries to propel projectiles in simple guns. It gradually spread to the Middle East and Europe in the following two centuries. Once perfected, firearms using gunpowder proved to be far more lethal than the traditional bow and arrow.
Image: Getty Images/E. Gooch/Hulton Archive
Artillery
The invention of gunpowder also introduced artillery pieces to the battlefield. Armies started using basic cannons in the 16th century to fire heavy metal balls at opposing infantrymen and breach defensive walls around cities and fortresses. Far more destructive field guns were invented in the 19th century and went on to wreak havoc in the battlefields of World War I.
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Machine guns
Guns that fire multiple rounds in rapid succession were invented in the late 19th century and immediately transformed the battlefield. Machine guns, as they came to be known, allowed soldiers to mow down the enemy from a protected position. The weapon's grisly effectiveness became all too clear in WWI as both sides used machine guns to wipe out soldiers charging across no man's land.
Image: Imperial War Museums
Warplanes
Military thinkers did not ignore the invention of the first airplane in 1903. Six years later, the US military bought the first unarmed military aircraft, the 1909 Wright Military Flyer. Inventors experimented with more advanced fighter and bomber aircraft in the following years. Both became standard features in many of the national air forces established by the end of WWI.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb/U.S. Airforce
Mechanization
Armies had traditionally used soldiers and horses to fight and transport military equipment. But around WWI, they started using more machines such as tanks and armored vehicles. Faster and more destructive armies were the result. Nazi Germany put this new form of "mechanized warfare" to destructive effect in WWII using an attack strategy known as "Blitzkrieg" ("lightning war").
Image: ullstein bild - SV-Bilderdienst
Missiles
Although artillery was effective, it had a relatively limited range. The missile's invention in WWII suddenly allowed an army to strike a target hundreds of kilometers away. The first missile — the German V-2 — was relatively primitive, but it laid the foundation for the development of guided cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
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Jet engine
Jet aircraft first saw action alongside traditional propeller airplanes at the end of WWII. Jet engines dramatically increased an aircraft's speed, allowing it to reach a target quicker and making it far harder for an adversary to shoot it down. After WWII, military reconnaissance planes were developed that could fly higher than 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) and faster than the speed of sound.
Image: picture-alliance
Nuclear weapons
The "second revolution in warfare" announced its horrific arrival on August 6, 1945, when the US dropped the first nuclear bomb — "Little Boy" — on the city of Hiroshima in Japan, killing between 60,000 and 80,000 people instantly. In the Cold War that followed, the US and Soviet Union developed thousands of even more destructive warheads that raised the specter of a devastating nuclear war.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
Digitization
Recent decades have witnessed the ever more prevalent use of computers to conduct war. The devices made military communication quicker and easier and radically improved the precision and efficiency of many weapons. Armed forces have recently focused on developing cyber warfare capabilities to defend national infrastructure and attack foreign adversaries in cyberspace.