With the nuclear threat seemingly growing, a nonproliferation treaty is being put to the test. Sixteen states hoping to strengthen the agreement held talks last year in Stockholm — now they are to meet again in Berlin.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/C. Riedel
Advertisement
Thirty years after the end of the Cold War, the thought of nuclear war is again sparking concern: The United States, Russia and China are modernizing their arsenals. Iran is enriching more uranium in response to the US withdrawing from a landmark nuclear deal. Meanwhile, North Korea is testing warheads and rockets in an attempt to scare off any number of potential enemies.
Many experts agree, the threat of nuclear war has grown. In order to change that, 16 countries are meeting this Tuesday in Berlin. At the invitation of German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, they are picking up talks that began last June in Stockholm.
Indirectly, the meeting is about what is considered the world's most important tool for stemming the nuclear threat: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or NPT. This agreement is revisited every five years. In two months, its 190 signatories will gather for four weeks of talks in New York.
In the run-up to this conference, Swedish diplomats have warned the "NPT community" not to "turn up empty-handed in 2020." To prevent that, Sweden launched the Stockholm Initiative to carve out joint proposals for the upcoming talks in New York.
The NPT is a diplomatic attempt to freeze the nuclear balance of power in 1967 terms. Up to that point, five countries had developed nuclear weapons capabilities: The US, France, China, the United Kingdom and the then-Soviet Union. The agreement barred them from passing their technical know-how onto third countries. All other treaty signatories agreed not to develop their own nuclear weapons. In addition, all participating countries, including the five official nuclear powers, agreed to hold talks aimed at complete disarmament.
The NPT is binding under international law, and only a handful of countries have not signed it: South Asian neighbors India and Pakistan, for example, have been at odds over the Kashmir region since their independence in 1947, and use the threat of nuclear weapons as part of that bitter dispute. Each state had already been developing nuclear weapons before the NPT came into force in 1970. The same holds true for Israel — these three countries are unofficial nuclear powers outside the treaty. The only other nonsignatory state is South Sudan, which has had to face more urgent problems than developing its own nuclear weapons program since its independence in 2011.
North Korea, meanwhile, is a special case. The East Asian state announced its withdrawal from the NPT in 2003 in order to develop its own nuclear weapons. In January, Iran threatened to exit the treaty. Ever since the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, the signs from the Islamic Republic have been pointing toward potential nuclear weapons development.
ICBM threat and North Korea's overall military strength
For years, the international community downplayed the threat of North Korea's military power. With the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, it is clear that Pyongyang's military capabilities are growing.
Image: Gettty Images/AFP/E. Jones
Major achievement
In early June 2017, North Korea test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time. Testing an ICBM marked a major military achievement for Pyongyang and a serious escalation of tensions with the United States and its allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
Trouble with warheads
At the time, defense experts said the ICBM could reach as far as the US states of Alaska and Hawaii. However, it was unclear if North Korea can field an ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead on its cone that could survive reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. North Korean state media claimed the ICBM was capable of carrying a "large, heavy nuclear warhead" to any part of the United States.
Image: Reuters/KCNA
Pyongyang's nuclear tests - six times and counting
The ICBM is believed to be a step forward in the North's nuclear program. Despite pressure from the international community, Pyongyang has made no secret of its nuclear ambitions. Alongside its ritual ballistic missile tests, North Korea has conducted nuclear tests on at least six occasions, including one in September 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/KCNA
US running out of patience?
Responding to the first ICBM test with a show of force, the US and South Korean troops on conducted "deep strike" precision missile drills using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Republic of Korea's Hyunmoo Missile II. In April, the US sent its Carl Vinson aircraft carrier towards the Korean Peninsula, saying it was taking prudent measures against the North.
Image: picture-alliance/Zumapress/M. Brown
Testing the boundaries
Ignoring international condemnation, Pyongyang test-launched another rocket on July 28, 2017, just weeks after its first ICBM test. In both of the tests, North Korea used Hwasong-14 missile, but the second one reached a higher altitude and traveled a larger distance than the first one, according to the state media.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KCNA
Whole of US within range?
Pyongyang conducted its third test November 29, using a newly developed Hwasong-15 missile. US, Japanese and South Korean officials said it rose to about 4,500 km (2,800 miles) and flew 960 kilometers (600 miles) over about 50 minutes before landing in Japan's exclusive economic zone off the country's coast.
Image: picture-alliance/MAXPPP
One of the world's largest militaries
Apart from a developing missile and nuclear program, North Korea has a powerful army with 700,000 active troops and another 4.5 million in the reserves. It can call upon almost a quarter of its population to serve in the army at any given time. The North's bloated army is believed to outnumber its southern neighbor's by two-to-one.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
Vast capabilities
According to the 2017 Global Firepower Index, the North has, as part of a far-reaching arsenal, 458 fighter aircraft, 5,025 combat tanks, 76 submarines, and 5,200,000 total military personnel. The picture above from 2013 shows leader Kim Jong Un ordering strategic rocket forces to be on standby to strike US and South Korean targets at any time.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Enemies all around
Alongside the United States, Pyongyang views its neighbors South Korea and Japan as its two other main enemies. North Korea has used US military exercises in the region as means of galvanizing its people, claiming that the exercises are dress rehearsals for an impending invasion.
Image: Reuters/K. Hong-Ji
Huge, colorful demonstrations of military might
Every year, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and citizens roll through the streets of the capital Pyongyang to take part in the North's military parades. Preparations for the rallies often begin months in advance, and the parades usually mark important anniversaries linked with the Communist Party or Kim Jong Un's family.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/KCNA
10 images1 | 10
Two separate camps
The 16 states participating in the Stockholm Initiative are not all nuclear powers. Countries such as Sweden, New Zealand and Ethiopia have no nuclear weapons. Countries such as Canada, South Korea and Germany, meanwhile, maintain — as NATO members — a policy of expanded nuclear deterrence: They may not have their own nuclear weapons programs, but they practice so-called nuclear participation because they can incorporate nuclear weapons from NATO partners in missions without possessing them themselves.
In Germany, for example, the US military stations nuclear warheads at the Büchel Air Base in Rheinland-Palatinate. Thus, NATO countries have a different starting point in the upcoming talks than those that are completely nuclear weapons-free. The Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (PNND), a global network of lawmakers aiming to stop nuclear proliferation, has praised the Stockholm Initiative, saying it "could bridge the divide between nuclear and non-nuclear States."
Indeed, a number of concrete proposals were already developed in Stockholm that the Initiative's 16 participants want to bring to the conference in New York. For example, they want to increase the amount of advance warning that must be given before a nuclear weapon can be used on enemy territory.
The Stockholm Initiative also wants all nuclear powers to adhere to a "no first use policy" for nuclear weapons, and is hoping that the states at the New York conference will formally agree to the wording that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."
After their initial meeting in Stockholm, the participants agreed their collective goal was "a world without nuclear weapons." Now they want to further refine those goals in Berlin, precisely so they do not show up to the nuclear nonproliferation conference in New York on April 27 empty-handed.
Technologies that revolutionized warfare
Artificial intelligence (AI) experts have warned about the dangerous "revolution" that would occur if lethal autonomous weapons were developed. But what are some of the other inventions that revolutionized warfare?
Image: Getty Images/E. Gooch/Hulton Archive
Artificial Intelligence: 'Third revolution in warfare'
More than 100 AI experts have written to the UN asking them to ban lethal autonomous weapons — those that use AI to act independently. No so-called "killer robots" currently exist, but advances in artificial intelligence have made them a real possibility. Experts said these weapons could be "the third revolution in warfare," after gunpowder and nuclear arms.
Image: Bertrand Guay/AFP/Getty Images
Gunpowder
The "first revolution in warfare" was invented by the Chinese, who started using the explosive black substance between the 10th and 12th centuries to propel projectiles in simple guns. It gradually spread to the Middle East and Europe in the following two centuries. Once perfected, firearms using gunpowder proved to be far more lethal than the traditional bow and arrow.
Image: Getty Images/E. Gooch/Hulton Archive
Artillery
The invention of gunpowder also introduced artillery pieces to the battlefield. Armies started using basic cannons in the 16th century to fire heavy metal balls at opposing infantrymen and breach defensive walls around cities and fortresses. Far more destructive field guns were invented in the 19th century and went on to wreak havoc in the battlefields of World War I.
Image: picture-alliance/akg-images
Machine guns
Guns that fire multiple rounds in rapid succession were invented in the late 19th century and immediately transformed the battlefield. Machine guns, as they came to be known, allowed soldiers to mow down the enemy from a protected position. The weapon's grisly effectiveness became all too clear in WWI as both sides used machine guns to wipe out soldiers charging across no man's land.
Image: Imperial War Museums
Warplanes
Military thinkers did not ignore the invention of the first airplane in 1903. Six years later, the US military bought the first unarmed military aircraft, the 1909 Wright Military Flyer. Inventors experimented with more advanced fighter and bomber aircraft in the following years. Both became standard features in many of the national air forces established by the end of WWI.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb/U.S. Airforce
Mechanization
Armies had traditionally used soldiers and horses to fight and transport military equipment. But around WWI, they started using more machines such as tanks and armored vehicles. Faster and more destructive armies were the result. Nazi Germany put this new form of "mechanized warfare" to destructive effect in WWII using an attack strategy known as "Blitzkrieg" ("lightning war").
Image: ullstein bild - SV-Bilderdienst
Missiles
Although artillery was effective, it had a relatively limited range. The missile's invention in WWII suddenly allowed an army to strike a target hundreds of kilometers away. The first missile — the German V-2 — was relatively primitive, but it laid the foundation for the development of guided cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Jet engine
Jet aircraft first saw action alongside traditional propeller airplanes at the end of WWII. Jet engines dramatically increased an aircraft's speed, allowing it to reach a target quicker and making it far harder for an adversary to shoot it down. After WWII, military reconnaissance planes were developed that could fly higher than 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) and faster than the speed of sound.
Image: picture-alliance
Nuclear weapons
The "second revolution in warfare" announced its horrific arrival on August 6, 1945, when the US dropped the first nuclear bomb — "Little Boy" — on the city of Hiroshima in Japan, killing between 60,000 and 80,000 people instantly. In the Cold War that followed, the US and Soviet Union developed thousands of even more destructive warheads that raised the specter of a devastating nuclear war.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
Digitization
Recent decades have witnessed the ever more prevalent use of computers to conduct war. The devices made military communication quicker and easier and radically improved the precision and efficiency of many weapons. Armed forces have recently focused on developing cyber warfare capabilities to defend national infrastructure and attack foreign adversaries in cyberspace.
