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Ocean current Europe depends on is at risk of collapsing

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Ole Alsaker
May 9, 2026

A vast Atlantic current, the AMOC, shapes Europe's climate and global weather. Professor Stefan Rahmstorf breaks down why scientists are more concerned about its stability than ever before.

A key Atlantic Ocean current system that helps regulate the planet's climate could weaken more than expected by 2100, with potentially devastating consequences worldwide, a new study has found.

Known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this conveyor belt of currents plays a crucial role in redistributing heat by transporting warmer waters from the tropics northward.

An AMOC collapse could lead to harsher winters in northern Europe, droughts in South Asia and the Sahel region in Africa, and higher sea levels in North America, among other consequences.

Previous climate model projections have estimated an average slowdown of around 32% by the end of the century due to climate change.

The latest study, published in the journal Science Advances, estimates that the system could slow by 51% by 2100 under a mid-range greenhouse gas emissions scenario, with a margin of error of plus or minus eight percentage points.

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