The majority of the 600 delegates at Saturday's conference for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Berlin officially confirmed Chancellor Olaf Scholz as the party's top candidate in Germany's upcoming parliamentary election.

The 66-year-old Scholz's governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) failed dramatically at the end of 2024, sparking a vote of no confidence that resulted in the snap election\ scheduled for February 23.

Now, according a poll by public broadcaster ARD, 77% of Germans are dissatisfied with Scholz's leadership, and the SPD squabbled for weeks about whether one of their more popular members should lead the campaign.

Ready to fight

Scholz, who possesses a singular self-confidence and avoids basing his actions on polls, is likely to have been unmoved by these concerns. With his political survival at stake, Scholz seemed decisive and combative at the party conference. If the SPD loses the Bundestag elections on February 23 as polls suggest that they will, Scholz's three-year term of office will have been the shortest in the Federal Republic of Germany's history.

The SPD currently has just under half of the support that poll respondents have expressed for the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU). But a lot could still happen between now and election day — at least that's what SPD members are telling each other.

"It's a damn serious time, a time when dramatic things are happening," Scholz said in his nearly hourlong speech to SPD members. "These are things that no one would have thought possible just a few years ago, perhaps even a few months or even weeks ago."

US relations uncertain

The January 20 swearing-in of Donald Trump as US president is already fomenting diplomatic angst, as he makes territorial claims to Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada. He has also made the breathtaking demand that every NATO country contribute 5% of their economic output to defense, when only two-thirds of the members currently manage to meet their 2% commitment.

Trump's antics could offer Scholz opportunities in the election campaign. At the party conference, he once again rejected Trump's claims: "The principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country, regardless of whether it is to the east or west of us. Every state must adhere to this principle. No country is the backyard of another. No small country should have to fear its larger neighbor. That is at the core of what we call Western values, our values," he said.

For some, the speech was a hopeful reminder of 2003, when the SPD chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, opposed US President George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq during his election campaign. His opposition earned him enough support to land a surprise win in the Bundestag elections.

SPD members know that international affairs are likely to become even more turbulent after Trump takes office. "This is also a time when certain forces in America are working very specifically to destroy our democratic institutions in the West," Scholz warned. "A time in which we cannot be sure how our relationship with the US will develop in the coming years."

Russia invaded Ukraine almost three years ago, and the war has been raging ever since. The SPD stands by Ukraine "without ifs or buts," Scholz said, but added that as chancellor, he and his party would ensure "that we are not dragged into this war."

"I will remain steadfast and level-headed, and all citizens in Germany can rely on that," Scholz said. "My principles always apply. I never apply double standards."

'Better for Germany' 

The SPD hopes to mobilize nonvoters. In its 63-page program entitled "More for you. Better for Germany," the SPD focuses on a strong state, equity between rich and poor, and more investment in the economy, infrastructure and defense, financed by higher taxes for the rich and a bigger national debt. The reintroduction of a wealth tax and increased taxation of large inheritances are also included.

The plan states that the welfare state should be preserved. "Are we now making sure that ordinary people in Germany can get by with decent wages, affordable food and affordable rents? Or will ordinary people end up footing the bill for the CDU/CSU's tax giveaways to the rich and super-rich?" Scholz asked delegates. "Are we now ensuring stable pensions, good health and care, intact schools and daycare centers — or are we cutting back everywhere on these things?"

The SPD wants to set up what it calls the "Germany Fund" to invest in electricity and heating grids, charging stations and housing construction. Additionally, the party wants to implement a "Made in Germany" bonus: investments in machinery and equipment that would be subsidized with 10% of the purchase price via a tax refund.

The cost of these proposals hasn't been fully calculated. The German Economic Institute estimates that the funding gap amounts to €30 billion ($30.7 billion) per year, though the gap for the CDU and CSU program is three times that size.

The SPD also warns against turning "to the right" on migration and asylum policy, saying Germany must remain a country that supports immigration. "Three out of 10 people in our country have a history of immigration. Those who live and work here permanently, who are well integrated, who speak German, should be able to belong to our country, they should be able to have a say in our democracy," Scholz said.

The country is at a "crossroads," Scholz said. "If we take a wrong turn in Germany on February 23, we will wake up the next morning in a different country."

This article was originally written in German.