Recep Tayyip Erdogan's swearing-in as Turkey's new all-powerful president is the culmination of a long quest. But Turkey remains divided, and Germany must not abandon the Turkish opposition, says DW's Gunnar Köhne.
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In the 1990s when he was still the mayor of Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan supposedly said, "Democracy is like a streetcar. When I arrive at my stop, I get off."
From Islamist youth activist to Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a career out of politics. But his path has been marked by controversy. DW takes a look at his rise to power.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Morenatti
The rise of Turkey's Erdogan
In Turkey and abroad, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has a polarizing effect. He has been described as a neo-Ottoman "sultan" as well as an authoritarian leader. From his early beginnings campaigning for Islamist causes to leading NATO's second largest military as the president of Turkey, DW explores the rise of the Turkish leader.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Morenatti
Jailed mayor of Istanbul
After years of moving up the ranks of the Islamist-rooted Welfare Party, Erdogan was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994. But four years later, the party was ruled unconstitutional on the grounds it threatened Turkey's secularist nature, and was disbanded. He was later jailed for four months for a controversial public reading of a poem, and consequently lost his mayorship over the conviction.
Erdogan co-founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which won a majority of seats in 2002. He was made prime minister in 2003. During his first years in office, Erdogan worked on providing social services, improving the economy and implementing democratic reforms. But some have argued that his premiership was also marked by a religious shift in the political sphere.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. Ozbilici
Islamist causes
While Turkey's constitution guarantees the country's secular nature, observers believe Erdogan has managed to purge the "old secularist guard." The Turkish leader has said that one of his goals is to raise a "pious generation." Erdogan's supporters have hailed the Turkish leader's initiatives, arguing that they've reversed years of discrimination against practicing Muslims.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/C. Ozdel
Surviving a coup
In July 2016, a failed military coup targeting Erdogan and his government left more than 200 people dead, including civilians and soldiers. In the wake of the coup attempt, Erdogan declared a state of emergency and vowed to "clean up" the military. "In Turkey, armed forces are not governing the state or leading the state. They cannot," he said.
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Nationwide crackdown
Since the failed coup, authorities have launched a nationwide crackdown, arresting more than 50,000 people in the armed forces, police, judiciary, schools and media. Erdogan has blamed Fethullah Gulen, a self-exiled cleric in the US and former ally, and his supporters of trying to undermine the government. But rights groups believe the allegations are a means to solidify his power and influence.
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Divisive politician
While Erdogan enjoys significant support in Turkey and the Turkish expatriate community, he has been criticized for his heavy-handed policies and military campaigns against Kurdish militants following the collapse of a peace process in 2015. This January, Erdogan launched a deadly offensive into the northern Syrian enclave of Afrin, an operation that was widely condemned by human rights groups.
Image: picture- alliance/ZUMAPRESS/Brais G. Rouco
A new era?
Having served as Turkey's president since 2014, Erdogan successfully extended his time in office after winning elections in June. The elections marked Turkey's transition to an executive-style presidency. Observers believe the elections will herald a new era for Turkey – for better or worse.
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Like Egpyt and Russia
Turkey has never been a picture-perfect democracy at any point in its 90-year-long existence. However, the extensive disempowerment of parliament has finally placed the country in the same category as Egypt or Russia. There is one difference, however: The political opposition in Turkey is no small ragtag group but instead is backed by nearly half of the population.
Erdogan is taking a big risk if he thinks that he and his supporters can preside over the rest of the country from here on out. He can put every liberal-minded teacher out on the street and implement more Islam classes. He can also downgrade the remaining university professors to mere takers of orders from above. He can push Western-oriented, innovative companies out of the country and provide state contracts to his cronies. He can continue agitating against the West, blasting the population through friendly media outlets and responding to the demands of the Kurds with even more violence.
Erogan's supporters may be vocal, but around half the population did not back him in the recent electionImage: Getty Images/AFP/A. Gharabli
Erdogan can do all of that — it's just that then the economic and political growth he has long promised will fail to materialize. Instead, the fall of the Turkish lira and galloping inflation are the first signs of a serious crisis.
It still remains unclear if the new regime will function. Erdogan promised Turkish citizens that he would replace the cumbersome bureaucracy with a system that actually works. At the same time he has created dozens of vice presidential positions and advisory commissions whose competencies remain unclear. Erdogan wants to control everything personally, but he also needs colleagues who can do more than just be loyal to him.
Europe must not abandon the opposition
Erdogan can only implement his plans with an iron fist. If he relaxes, the country will become ungovernable. He knows this, yet he's once again showing conciliatory signs, such as his announcement to appoint politically independent experts as ministers. But more than anything else, such signals should be seen as attempts to calm foreign countries and investors.
DW correspondent Gunnar Köhne
A dark period is now beginning for Turks who support democracy. Never before have they had such an all-powerful opponent as Erdogan. Yet despite the despondency that took hold after the electoral defeat, the Turkish opposition will soon remember its strengths.
Germany and Europe should not leave the opposition alone in the future. We should guarantee safety to dissidents forced to flee and increase the pressure on Ankara. The EU made the right decision when it chose to provisionally end all talks over expanding the customs union with Turkey. And EU accession talks can also end immediately. As it stands now, there's really no point anymore.
