Donald Trump's options on North Korea are limited, as it is Kim Jong Un who is calling the shots with his nuclear and missile tests. The US can't rely on China and must look for a neutral mediator, says Martin Fritz.
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Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
North Korea's hydrogen bomb test on Sunday should be a serious matter for the US. A single such bomb, if used in an attack, could wipe out a city like New York. A hydrogen bomb explosion in the air above the Silicon Valley could completely paralyze the functioning of US technological giants like Apple, Facebook and Google. And Pyongyang will soon have the means to carry out such attacks.
The US has so far failed to put a halt to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. It's been 11 years since the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on North Korea after the communist country conducted its first nuclear test. Since then, the reclusive regime in Pyongyang has been enhancing its nuclear strike capabilities. It is obvious from Washington's recent reactions to the North's nuclear and missile tests that it did not expect this outcome and is totally unprepared to deal with the situation.
Fritz: 'You can look at it from any angle, but the US is the main loser in the current Korean conflict'Image: Privat
US President Donald Trump has been threatening the regime in North Korea. But neither conventional nor a nuclear strike is a realistic option for Washington. South Korea and Japan, the US allies in the region, would not approve of it, for they would be the immediate victims of any retaliatory strikes. And if the US chooses to build pressure through more sanctions on the North and wait for their impact, Pyongyang will gain more time to perfect its missiles.
North Korea wants to negotiate a peace treaty with a guarantee that sanctions will be lifted. But that is not all; the North wants to be recognized as a nuclear state by the international community. North Korean officials cite the example of Pakistan, which has been accepted as a nuclear state by the US. So for negotiations with the North, the US would have to give up its demand for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. It could possibly negotiate a restriction on the nuclear arsenal, but nothing more than that. But that would not be acceptable to Seoul and Tokyo.
The "double game" of China is also frustrating for the Trump administration. The US is dependent on Beijing to implement UN sanctions against North Korea. But Chinese President Xi Jinping is pursuing his own goals. The proposed oil embargo on North Korea will not be endorsed by China. Secondly, Beijing wants to weaken Washington's influence in East Asia. Pyongyang's nuclear and missile program is proving to be quite useful for Beijing to counter the US alliance with South Korea and Japan.
Russia, by any means, is not a neutral player in the Korean conflict either. The perception that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to humiliate the US cannot be brushed aside. The rapid progress of North Korea's missile technology raises suspicions about Russian help even though there is no hard evidence for that. In any case, the changed power balance in the Far East points to Russia's importance in the region. Moscow's insistence on talks rather than further sanctions fits this role.
You can look at it from any angle, but the US is the main loser in the current Korean conflict. President Trump's tweets about North Korea expose this fact.
Washington should look for a neutral mediator to resolve the conflict. It could be Sweden or Germany, for instance. However, the measure would require a high degree of maturity in Washington – something which has been missing all this while.
The truth and myths of the Kim dynasty
The Kim family has ruled North Korea for the last seven decades, with state-run propaganda praising Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un as godlike figures. DW looks at the rulers behind the myths.
Image: picture alliance / dpa
A young leader
Kim Il Sung, the first and "eternal" president of North Korea, took power in 1948 with the support of the Soviet Union. The official calendar in North Korea begins with his birth year, 1912, designating it "Juche 1" after the state's Juche ideology. He was 41 when, as shown here, he signed the 1953 armistice that effectively ended the Korean War.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Hero worship
In the years and decades after the war, Pyongyang's propaganda machine worked hard to weave a mythical narrative around Kim Il Sung. His childhood and the time he spent fighting Japanese troops in the 1930s were embellished to portray him as an unrivaled military and political genius.
At the 1980 party congress, Kim announced he would be succeeded by his son, Kim Jong Il.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo
Ruling to the end
In 1992, Kim Il Sung started writing and publishing his memoirs, entitled "Reminiscences: With the Century." Describing his childhood, the North Korean leader claims that he first joined an anti-Japanese rally at 6 years old and became involved with the independence struggle at 8.
The memoirs remained unfinished at Kim Il Sung's death in 1994.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/JIJI Press
In his father's footsteps
After spending years in the top tiers of the regime, Kim Jong Il took power after his father's death. Kim Jong Il's 16-year rule was marked by famine and economic crisis in an already impoverished country. However, the cult of personality surrounding him and his father, Kim Il Sung, grew even stronger.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KCNA via Korean News Service
Rising star
Historians outside North Korea believe Kim Jong Il was born in a military camp in eastern Russia, most likely in 1941. However, the leader's official biography claims it happened on the sacred Korean mountain Paektu, exactly 30 years after his father, on April 15, 1942. A North Korean legend says the birth was blessed by a new star and a double rainbow.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo
Family trouble
Kim Jong Il had three sons and two daughters with three different women. This 1981 photo shows Kim Jong Il sitting besides his son Kim Jong Nam, with his sister-in-law and her two children in the background. Kim Jong Nam was eventually assassinated in 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Grooming a successor
In 2009, Western media reported that Kim Jong Il had picked his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to take over as the head of the regime. The two appeared together at a military parade on 2010, a year before Kim Jong Il passed away.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/V. Yu
Together
According to Pyongyang, the death of Kim Jong Il in 2011 was marked by a series of mysterious events. State media reported that ice snapped loudly at a lake on the Paektu mountain during a sudden snowstorm, with a glowing message appearing on the rocks.
After Kim Jong Il's death, a 22-meter (72-foot) statue of him was erected next to the one of his father (l.) in Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Mysterious past
Kim Jong Un mostly stayed out of the spotlight before his ascent to power. His exact age is disputed, but he is believed to have been born between 1982 and 1984. He was reportedly educated in Switzerland. In 2013, he surprised the world by meeting with former NBA star Dennis Rodman in Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
A new cult
Like the leaders before him, Kim Jong Un is hallowed by the state's totalitarian regime. In 2015, South Korean media reported about a new teacher's manual in the North that claimed Kim Jong Un could drive at the age of 3. In 2017, state media said that a monument to the young leader would be build on Mount Paektu.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/Kctv
A Kim with a hydrogen bomb
Altough Kim took power at a younger age and with less of a public profile than his father and grandfather, he has managed to maintain his grip on power. The assassination of his half-brother Kim Jong Nam in 2017 served to cement his reputation abroad as a merciless dictator. The North Korean leader has also vastly expanded the country's nuclear arsenal.
