Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un have so far been busy trading threats and insults. The US president’s planned meeting with the North Korean leader marks a surprising turn in the decades-long conflict, says Alexander Freund.
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Everyone is applauding, including China and Russia. The planned summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korea's ruler Kim Jong Un would represent a historical milestone.
South Korea's president Moon Jae-in has described the proposed meeting as "almost a miracle." Moon very much deserves the credit for this apparent rapprochement.
The South Korean leader's détente policy, which initially drew sharp ridicule from critics, relies on a balanced mix of stringent sanctions and willingness to talk.
Presumably, such a summit of the two alpha males, Trump and Kim, would be a media spectacle, and each can present himself as the winner. Trump could claim that his tough approach and bellicose rhetoric toward North Korea paid off and knocked reason into the "Rocketman."
Kim Jong Un, in turn, will present himself as a triumphant leader to his isolated people, pointing out that he — with the help of his nuclear and missile tests — has finally managed to get the "mentally deranged US dotard" to engage in direct talks with the North Korean leader.
Symbolism and tradeoffs
Beyond the bombastic rhetoric, it will be far more important to observe what steps the two leaders will ultimately agree to take at the symbolic summit.
In exchange for extensive security guarantees to North Korea and the leadership, Kim could offer a general halt to nuclear and missile tests and even agree to a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
But Kim will certainly demand a high price for such a move.
In return, the US would have to put an end to its joint military exercises with South Korean forces and perhaps even reduce the presence of American troops in the region.
Trump would probably be in favor of such an arrangement, as he could boast to his electorate that he has protected the US from North Korean missiles, while saving a lot of money for American taxpayers by reducing the number of troops deployed overseas.
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.
Image: Reuters/A. Wallace
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Clever diplomatic maneuver
Doubts still hover about North Korea's claims that it had tested a hydrogen bomb or that it is able to hit American territory with its missiles.
But Pyongyang's actions and rhetoric have showed effect: North Korea is now taken seriously and it has successfully maneuvered itself toward the negotiating table.
The Kim regime has learnt a lesson from the recent past, and under no circumstances does it want to experience the same fate as Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
That's why the "pretty smart cookie," as Trump called Kim at the start of his presidency, desperately wanted to maximize North Korea's threat potential. Of course, the sanctions that followed have hit the already impoverished country hard, but Kim's oppressed people have been used to deprivation for decades anyway.
Beyond the alpha males, therefore, it's important to see what will change in areas that matter most to normal citizens. Will they be able to live in peace and security? Will the families that have remained separated for decades see each other again? Will the two states gradually develop harmonious relations and perhaps even reunite in the foreseeable future?
Such a reunification would be something to wish for, after all these painful decades in the history of Korea.
But the gap between the North and the South is much larger now than the one that existed between West and East Germany at the time of their reunification. The North Korean regime has systematically isolated and oppressed its people, even by operating concentration camps.
In this context, the upcoming meeting of the two Korean leaders as well as the showdown between Trump and Kim may be important milestones. But creating mutual trust and reconciliation will take a long time and can only succeed if the wrongdoers are held to account, which we Germans know only too well. By then, Trump and Kim will be history.