As more and more ethnic groups in Ethiopia want regional autonomy, DW’s Ludger Schadomsky questions whether Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will be able hold the country together.
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Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Tewelde
The Sidama referendum's preliminary results don't come as as a surprise. The overwhelming majority of the 2.3 million registered voters have backed autonomy for the ethnic Sidama people — a first step towards establishing Ethiopia's 10th semi-autonomous state.
This will give the Sidamas an important voice in Ethiopian politics when it comes to matters like taxes, education, security and legislation. But it will also have a domino effect. Out of Ethiopia's 80 ethnic groups, over 10 other groups have already indicated their intention to follow the Sidama example and demand their own state, as is their constitutional right.
From EPRDF to EPP
The referendum is only one of two historical events that occurred in Ethiopia in the past week. Last weekend, coalition members of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), that has ruled Ethiopia since 1991, renamed it the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP), turning the heterogenous coalition into a national unity party.
Ludger Schadomsky is head of DW's Amharic desk
Whether the EPP will be able to bring the prosperity that its name suggests to the 105 million Ethiopian people, remains to be seen. What is beyond any doubt, is that the merger, spurred on by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed indicates a turning point: the revolutionary democracy, which has its roots in Cold War era Albanian-Marxism and has been propagated by Ethiopia's government for over a quarter of a century, will be discarded once and for all.
Ethiopia's new way ahead is laid out in the "Medemer" which translates to synergy – a political, economic and social roadmap. The booklet printed over one million times and available for the equivalent of €9 ($9.95) at kiosks.
Symptoms of Balkanization
The two developments almost seem contrary. While centrifugal forces are pulling at the seams of the federal state, the reform eager premier is trying to redefine the delicately developed and tested balance of power of the multiethnic state. The outcome of this experiment is uncertain and murmurs of a possible Balkanization are making the rounds.
The Sidama make up around four percent of Ethiopia's population of some 100 millionImage: DW/S. Wegayehu
For Ethiopia this is the litmus test ahead of the May 2020 elections, during which Abiy hopes to garner the needed support for his reforms. In the light of the ugly side of the ethno nationalism, which has shown itself repeatedly in the past months and taken 80 lives over the past weekend, observers of the developments are worried. While Abiy is preaching "Synergy," his adversaries are appealing to lowly, ethno-nationalistic interests.
Forwarning to Africa
While Ethiopia is trying to redraw its political landscape, the matter goes beyond its borders. The African Union, which has its seat in Ethiopia's captial Addis Ababa, is also debating matters of ethno-centrism, nationalism and whether the continental unity should be the ultimate goal. Similarly to Ethiopia's developments, the outcome of the discourse remains to be seen.
The plight of Ethiopia's Anuak refugees
For decades, members of the Anuak ethnic minority in Ethiopia have suffered from government persecution. Many fled to neighboring South Sudan. Ethiopia is now trying to bring them home. How are they faring?
Image: DW/T. Marima
Reunited with family
It took 29-year-old Okwalla Ochang Cham (center) two years to complete the dangerous journey from his home country of Ethiopia to South Sudan. "I had no money for transport up until South Sudan so I had to walk most of the way," he told DW. In April, Cham finally reached the Gorom refugee settlement where he was reunited with his wife and three children. Ethiopia had accused him of being a rebel.
Image: DW/T. Marima
To stay... or to go?
Anuak boys sitting outside a home in the camp. Cham, a refugee who spent several years in an Ethiopian prison accused of being a rebel, isn't convinced it's safe for Anuaks like him and his family to go back. "What I know is that if the government system is still there, it hasn't changed. If they change the prime minister but the system hasn't changed, there will still be problems."
Image: DW/T. Marima
Safety at last
Akwata Umot Okok, also a refugee, walks through the settlement that's home to over 2,000 Ethiopians who have fled ethnic persecution. Most recently, investment projects such as sugar cane production have led to the Anuak losing large areas of ancestral lands to foreign corporations. This land issue has further intensified violence.
Image: DW/T. Marima
Is returning home an option?
Akwata Umot Okok has found refuge at the Gorom refugee settlement, some 25 kilometers (15 miles) north of South Sudan's capital Juba. She used to be a farmer before she fled 14 years ago. Since then, she has survived on food rations and minimal income. But still, she is unsure about returning home. "If Ethiopia is now free, I will go back. But if it is not, I will not go," the mother of four said.
Image: DW/T. Marima
Separated families
A woman chops firewood at Gorom Camp. The majority of people who've managed to flee ethnic persecution in Ethiopia are women. Men were often arrested and accused of being rebels. In a family setting, this meant women would often perform all domestic tasks.
Image: DW/T. Marima
A safe haven?
Anuak children pose by a sign in Gorom Camp stressing that refugee camps are weapon-free zones. However, the camp has come under attack before when South Sudanese armed groups were fighting each other. Omot Obang Kwot, who left Ethiopia in December 2003 for what was then Sudan, says groups of refugees have been ambushed by gunmen outside the camp.
Image: DW/T. Marima
Far from home
Since Ethiopia's new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in April, he has vowed to address the marginalization of a number of ethnic groups, among other things. However, despite the changing political climate, inter-ethnic violence persists. Renewed conflict has forced more than a million people to flee their homes since April, according to the United Nations.
Image: DW/T. Marima
New arrivals
A group of Anuak refugees who recently arrived from Ethiopia gather at Gorom camp's reception center. The UN's refugee agency UNHCR says an average of 15-20 people are received each day.
Image: DW/T. Marima
Hope at last?
A refugee home decorated with traditional Anuak patterns and a new year's inscription that reads: "To The New Year 2018, maybe it is better". 2018 has seen significant political changes in Ethiopia, but whether that means Anuak refugees will finally be able to return home remains to be seen.
